Saving Seafood

What’s a ‘super El Niño’? And other El Niño questions, answered

May 18, 2026 — The odds are in El Niño’s favor right now.

This natural weather phenomenon, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, occurs when warmer-than-average water extends throughout most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean just below the surface. That’s happening now. And powerful bursts of westerly wind have pushed immense amounts of warm water eastward, toward the Niño3.4 region where sea surface temperature, along with other atmospheric conditions, is used to assess the state of ENSO.

On May 14, in its monthly ENSO outlook, the NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center gave an 82% chance that El Niño will be in place for the period May through July, which implies that it’ll be here within weeks.

How do experts know when El Niño has arrived?

El Niño conditions are declared when the atmosphere and ocean are in sync and the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature is at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) warmer than the seasonal average.

But just as hurricanes can and do stray from the “cone of uncertainty” at times, it’s vital to remember that El Niño can do much the same. Preparing for the prototypical outcomes is a smart move, as long as you keep in mind that forecasting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is more a matter of probabilities than certainties.

NOAA now uses a Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, in which the Niño3.4 value is adjusted relative to the world’s tropical oceans as a whole; the goal is to keep global warming from smudging the signal of El Niño and La Niña events themselves.

Nearly all seasonal forecast ensembles used to predict ENSO at agencies around the world now concur that the imminent event is likely to bring Niño3.4 warming of at least 1.5°C, which would push it into the “strong” category. And some of the ensemble averages are now going well above 2°C, even for the adjusted RONI index. That would put it in the ballpark of the biggest El Niño events in the NOAA database going back to 1950.

Individual ensemble members still cover a fairly broad range, with outcomes varying from a weak event to a record-stomping one, but as shown below, they’re about as close to being unanimous on a significant El Niño as you’re likely to see. (This output is mainly using the traditional pre-RONI index, which tends to run slightly hotter on recent El Niño events.)

Read the full article at Yale Climate Connections

Groundwater plays a critical role in Southcentral Alaska salmon rivers

May 15, 2026 — Groundwater discharge plays a critical role in salmon-rich rivers of Southcentral Alaska and managing this limited resource, particularly when salmon are migrating, requires a delicate balance.

These groundwaters also support increasing demands of people living in the area, as climate change introduces greater uncertainty in water resources and fisheries, notes a new study published in April in the online Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

Groundwater is traditionally defined as water stored and transmitted within the saturated zone but commonly includes the continuum of water stored and transmitted in both the unsaturated and saturated zones.

Read the full article at National Fisherman

Birds dying along California beaches as marine heat wave intensifies

May 14, 2026 — The ocean off California’s coast is heating up again, with marine heat wave conditions stretching across much of the eastern Pacific. In some areas, sea surface temperatures are running 4 to 8 degrees above average.

At the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier in La Jolla, ocean temperatures have reached record highs on more than 30 days through April, with roughly one in five days this year setting a record for that date.

Scientists say the warming is already reshaping conditions along the California coast, where shifts in ocean temperature ripple quickly through the food web — from plankton to fish to the birds and marine mammals that depend on them.

Read the full article at VC Star

Some seas may soon be trapped in near-permanent heatwaves, scientists warn

May 13, 2026 — Seas recover. That’s the working assumption behind most marine conservation planning – heatwaves arrive, fish flee or die, then the water cools and the count resets.

A new study of 19 enclosed seas found that resets after heatwaves may stop happening. Some are on track to spend more than 330 days a year locked in heatwave conditions. Not a temporary extreme. A new permanent state.

Impact of heatwaves on Earth’s seas

The findings come from a team led by Matthias Gröger, a physical oceanographer at the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) in Germany. His group ran climate model projections for 19 enclosed seas around the world.

These are stretches of saltwater hemmed in by land – the Mediterranean, the Baltic, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and 15 others. Small and shallow compared to open ocean basins, with little water exchange beyond their narrow gates.

That geometry is the problem. Heat that would dissipate across the Pacific instead piles up in a confined space. Nowhere to go, no way to dump it.

Read the full article at Earth.com

Wildlife faces die-off risk as marine heat wave lingers over California

May 13, 2026 — The ocean off California’s coast is heating up again — and this time, the impacts are showing up on shore.

The marine heat wave has developed across much of the West Coast, stretching from Washington to California. In some areas, ocean temperatures have climbed 4 to 8 degrees above average. At the Scripps Pier in San Diego, ocean temperatures have logged record-high readings on more than 30 days through April, with about one-fifth of the year so far reaching record levels for that location.

Scientists have long warned of this pattern: when ocean temperatures spike, the effects move quickly through the food web, from plankton to fish to the animals that depend on them.

Read the full article at USA TODAY

Marine life finds new home at base of wind turbines

May 14, 2026 — As lobsters migrate to colder waters due to climate change, Jonah crabs are becoming one of the most important species for fisheries in Southern New England.

“As the biomass of the American lobster declines due to climate-related changes and shifting ocean conditions, many fishermen have adapted by targeting other valuable species, and the Jonah crab has become a major alternative,” said Emmanuel Oyewole, a first-year Ph.D. student in the University of Rhode Island’s Graduate School of Oceanography. “The Jonah crab used to be considered a bycatch species and thrown back because lobster was so lucrative. As lobsters became less abundant, people started to realize that the Jonah crab is a viable and delicious alternative.”

Oyewole is conducting a study that is partly funded by a grant from The Nature Conservancy into how offshore wind farm structures are impacting the growth and habitats of Jonah crabs.

“Ecologically, Jonah crabs also play an important role in the marine food web,” said Oyewole, who is from Ilé-Ifẹ̀, Nigeria, a town in the southwestern part of the country. “They are both predators and prey, helping to maintain balance within benthic ecosystems. Because they are closely connected to seafloor habitats, they can help us understand how offshore wind farm structures may influence local biodiversity, habitat use, and the productivity of fisheries.”

When turbine foundations are installed on the seafloor, their hard surfaces become desirable habitats for marine organisms to attach, grow, and live, just as they do on natural rock or reefs. As algae, barnacles, mussels, and other small marine life, settle on these structures, these smaller organisms attract larger species such as crabs and fish that come to feed, hide, or seek shelter.

Read the full article at the University of Rhode Island

Scientists are tracking 2 marine heat waves off the Pacific coast. Will they merge?

May 7, 2026 — From a small building at the end of the Ellen Browning Scripps Memorial Pier in La Jolla, aquarist Melissa Torres reels in a bucket with ocean surface water and looks at a digital thermometer — the same way researchers have taken daily measurements of ocean temperatures from the pier over the past 100 years.

On this recent Monday, the temperature is 18.95 degrees Celsius, or 66 degrees Fahrenheit.

“That’s warm,” said Torres. “Yesterday was 17.97 (degrees Celsius). But, yes, usually, we like to see around 16.” 

Torres said the average ocean surface temperature off the La Jolla coast is about 61 degrees Fahrenheit. But for months, temperatures all along the West Coast have risen 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. They’ve also been warmer deep below the surface.

Now, scientists are monitoring a separate heat wave that is forming hundreds of miles off the Pacific coast. That one is part of a pattern observed over the last decade.

“Every year we seem to be getting these heat waves that start way offshore about this time of year, get bigger and get to the coast and impact us, typically get us in the late summer and fall,” said Leising. “That does seem to be something that is kind of the new normal ever since the blob.”

He’s monitoring whether the two marine heat waves will merge in the late summer or fall.

Read the full article at KPBS

CONNECTICUT: may allow smaller out-of-state lobsters to be sold here – which supporters say could lower prices

May 6, 2026 — Most if not all of the lobsters sold at Captain Scott’s Lobster Dock are from out of state, according to owner Susan Tierney. But when her brother opened the Groton restaurant in 1996, they only sold locally fished lobsters.

“He was a lobsterman and a lobster wholesaler. He used to bring in all of our lobsters,” Tierney said of her now deceased brother, Tom Eshenfelder. “We don’t do that anymore.”

The year that Captain Scott’s opened was a big one for Connecticut’s lobster industry. More than 2.8 million pounds of lobster was landed in Connecticut that year, and by 1998, that number would grow to its peak of more than 3.7 million pounds, according to data maintained by the National Marine Fisheries Service.

But that was before the lobster die-off in Long Island Sound, caused by warming water, a shell rot illness and other factors. By 2000, only 1.3 million pounds of lobster was landed in Connecticut, and it just kept getting worse. In 2022, only 88,000 pounds of lobster was caught by Connecticut lobstermen.

“I don’t see a lot of local lobsters anymore,” Tierney said.

Tierney has to sell out-of-state lobsters, just like other restaurants and fish markets selling lobster in Connecticut, and they all pay a hidden premium on smaller-size lobsters.

State lawmakers will likely change the laws that govern the maximum and minimum size a lobster can be to be legally sold in Connecticut, in the hope that your lobster roll might be somewhat cheaper next year. The language, originally part of a seafood-specific bill, has been added to the state budget bill, which is widely expected to be signed into law by Gov. Ned Lamont.

The New England Fishing Industry Is Helping Scientists To Understand Ocean Changes

May 4, 2026 — For decades, fishing studies typically employed one-on-one mapping exercises, guided by a facilitator who helped fishing industry participants to draw polygons or mark points on a digital or a paper map of an area of interest. Such ocean mapping has a strong temporal component, as it is intended to gather data for multiple seasons or even multi-decade fishing patterns. However, a new intersection of the fishing industry and research scientists is providing much more robust information about the seas below.

A whole slew of fishers have willingly added another task to their long days at sea: collecting essential data information about the changing ocean environment with the helping hand of technology.

Other fishers want in — there’s a waiting list.

Nearly 150 fishermen along the eastern seaboard have given permission to have temperature sensors installed on their traps or trawl nets. As chronicled by the New York Times, it’s one element of a larger non-profit program — one that kicked off in 2001, expanded in 2024 with a $2 million grant from the state of Massachusetts, increased with $200,000 from the Nature Conservancy, and was boosted by $120,000 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A $5,000 package of sensors, software, and tablets that the fishers deploy is paid for by the program.

Read the full article at Clean Technica

Record ocean heat off California coast echoes ‘Blob,’ killing seabirds and reshaping weather outlook

May 4, 2026 — Over the past several months, an intense marine heat wave has developed in the Pacific from Washington to Baja Mexico, with a particularly extreme hot spot between the Bay Area and San Diego. Ocean temperatures have spiked to as much as 7 degrees hotter than average, with many places breaking records for this time of year.

The heatwave off the California coast is already causing starving birds to wash ashore and could increase the risk of thunderstorms and dry lightning that could worsen the wildfire season, scientists say.

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego have recorded 38 days since Jan. 1 when the surface temperature off their La Jolla pier in San Diego broke records going as far back as 1916. On March 20, the ocean there reached 71 degrees, the hottest ever recorded in March and a level normally seen in August.

“It’s extreme,” said Melissa Carter, a Scripps oceanographer. “We have had heat waves in the past. But this is a record event for the duration and the intensity.”

Farther north, ocean temperatures also have broken records on 31 days this year off Newport Beach; 38 off Santa Barbara; 22 at Pacific Grove near Monterey; 9 days at the Farallon Islands off San Francisco; and 14 at Trinidad in Humboldt County.

Read the full article at The Miami Hearld