June 29, 2026 — A new paper by Bryan Watts, Ph.D., and coauthors reports poor osprey reproduction in high-salinity areas of the Chesapeake Bay and argues that reduced availability of Atlantic menhaden may be a primary driver. The paper will almost certainly be used to argue for harsh restrictions on this well-regulated fishery, but its conclusion is stronger than its evidence. The study documents an osprey problem but it fails to conclusively link those concerns to Virginia’s commercial menhaden fishery.
The conclusion rests on a chain of assumptions: poor reproduction indicates food stress; food stress indicates reduced menhaden availability; reduced local availability indicates broader scarcity; and any scarcity is linked to commercial fishing.
Each step in that chain requires evidence. The evidence is not there.
Timing is one problem. Ospreys return to the bay and begin nesting before the menhaden purse seine fishery is active. Egg laying and early chick mortality occur before fishing activity. In 2024, when the data used in this paper was collected, menhaden arrived exceptionally late. Early-season fishing did not happen. If prey was unavailable before the fishery was operating, that points to migration timing or environmental conditions, not fishery removals.