Saving Seafood

Column: New paper’s menhaden claims not backed by evidence

June 29, 2026 — A new paper by Bryan Watts, Ph.D., and coauthors reports poor osprey reproduction in high-salinity areas of the Chesapeake Bay and argues that reduced availability of Atlantic menhaden may be a primary driver. The paper will almost certainly be used to argue for harsh restrictions on this well-regulated fishery, but its conclusion is stronger than its evidence. The study documents an osprey problem but it fails to conclusively link those concerns to Virginia’s commercial menhaden fishery.

The conclusion rests on a chain of assumptions: poor reproduction indicates food stress; food stress indicates reduced menhaden availability; reduced local availability indicates broader scarcity; and any scarcity is linked to commercial fishing.

Each step in that chain requires evidence. The evidence is not there.

Timing is one problem. Ospreys return to the bay and begin nesting before the menhaden purse seine fishery is active. Egg laying and early chick mortality occur before fishing activity. In 2024, when the data used in this paper was collected, menhaden arrived exceptionally late. Early-season fishing did not happen. If prey was unavailable before the fishery was operating, that points to migration timing or environmental conditions, not fishery removals.

Read the full article at The Virginian-Pilot 

Ocean Harvesters disputes osprey-menhaden link

June 18, 2026 — A scientific paper documenting widespread reproductive deficits among Chesapeake Bay osprey is drawing attention from the commercial fishing industry, with Ocean Harvesters arguing that the study does not establish a causal link between the declines and Virginia’s commercial menhaden fishery.

The paper, Widespread Reproductive Deficits in Chesapeake Bay Ospreys, published in Frontiers in Marine Science, suggests that reduced availability of Atlantic menhaden may be a primary factor contributing to poor osprey nesting success in high-salinity regions of the Chesapeake Bay.

In a June 11 email statement provided by Ocean Harvesters, they claimed the study raised important question about osprey productivity but “does not prove that Virginia’s commercial menhaden fishery caused the problem.”

According to Ocean Harvesters, the paper relies on a series of inferences connecting poor osprey reproduction to food stress, reduced menhaden availability and ultimately commercial fishing activity, but stops short of demonstrating direct causation.

Peter Himchak, senior fisheries scientist at Omega Protein, also cautioned against interpreting the paper as definitive evidence linking the reduction fishery to osprey declines.

“This paper is likely to draw attention because it reads, at least up front, like an indictment of menhaden availability in the Chesapeake Bay,” Himchak said. “But the paper also details numerous other possible mechanisms that may affect osprey productivity, and those caveats are critical considerations in evaluating this issue.”

Read the full article at the National Fisherman