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2026’s El Niño is shaping up to be a doozy – it’s already affecting global shipping, fish behavior and heat

September 14, 2026 — El Niño is here, and forecasters warn that it’s likely to be bigger and stronger in 2026-27 than any El Niño event recorded in at least 150 years.

During strong El Niños, global air and ocean temperatures spike, and precipitation patterns shift dramatically – flooding rains deluge places that are normally dry, and drought strikes some of the wettest locations on earth. With this El Niño arriving on top of already high global ocean and air temperatures, it carries the potential for extraordinary impacts to millions of lives throughout the world. Globally, August 2026 was the hottest month on record, according to data from Europe’s Copernicus climate service.

Those effects are already showing up in Central and South America.

Fishing crews in Ecuador are catching fewer tuna and traveling farther from shore to find them as fish migrate to cooler water. Coral reefs are under alert for severe risk of bleaching in many areas.

In Panama, where I live, seabirds common to Ecuador and Peru known as blue-footed boobies began showing up in large numbers in Panama earlier than usual as the sardines and anchovies they eat moved northward to escape the El Niño ocean heat.

Farmers in some regions of Panama have been unable to plant their crops. And many people here are worried about access to drinking water in the coming dry season, normally January to April but predicted to arrive at least a month earlier than usual.

The global economy is also beginning to see far-reaching effects. Worsening drought is reducing the amount of water needed to operate the Panama Canal, resulting in fewer ships with less cargo able to pass through in a day. That leads to higher transit costs for shippers of all kinds of products and slower deliveries.

I am a biologist who has been monitoring the weather in Panama and surrounding regions for the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute for almost 40 years. That includes major climatic events such as El Niño, and what I am seeing in Panama in 2026 in terms of heat and drought has already begun to exceed anything that we have measured here in over a century.

Read the full article at The Conservation

Birds Are Dying. Clues Point to El Niño.

August 7, 2026 — Every month, Giovanny Suárez Espín walks a beach near his home in southern Ecuador, monitoring for dead seabirds. Usually, he sees maybe a handful.

But on recent surveys, the sand has been littered with carcasses.

“Every 10 steps you took, you found five or 10 birds, and it kept going,” said Suárez, who works for American Bird Conservancy, a nonprofit group. “On the three-kilometer walk, we saw lots of dead birds the whole way.”

In June, Suárez and others tallied 638 dead birds on the beaches of three provinces in Ecuador, about seven times the number found over the previous year and a half combined.

“It’s painful,” he said.

In July, they counted an additional 968.

It’s too soon to say for certain what has caused the spike in deaths, which has affected various species, including sooty shearwaters, Peruvian and blue-footed boobies, cormorants, petrels and the critically endangered waved albatross. Die-offs in sea birds aren’t uncommon, and can stem from a variety of factors. In 2023, Ecuador saw mass deaths from avian influenza, said Sebastián Cruz, a seabird ecologist who runs the South American marine bird program for American Bird Conservancy.

But this time, he said, looks different. The birds’ bodies are emaciated. Testing for bird flu is needed, but the few necropsies that have been conducted, along with the behavior of surviving birds, show no signs of infection. And critically, sea surface temperatures off the coast have been exceptionally elevated.

This points to an alarming possibility: The seabirds could already be victims of the building El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon whose effects are now occurring while the planet dangerously warms.

In recent months, as scientists have predicted an El Niño that could be the strongest in recorded history, the attention has focused on how it could hurt humans. And it could hurt us a lot, potentially bringing record heat, drought and torrential rain.

But wildlife stands to suffer, too. Marine mammals and seabirds are among the most at risk.

Read the full article at The New York Times

El Niño is here, and it’s already scrambling fisheries throughout the Pacific

July 8, 2026 — We’re not even one month into “super” El Niño, the natural Pacific weather pattern characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures, and fisheries around the world are already getting scrambled.

In Peru, government officials have effectively canceled the fishing season for anchovies, one of the country’s most important exports and a leading source of fish oil and animal feed globally. The Indian government is preparing for a season of smaller, less plentiful Indian mackerel. Meanwhile, in Southern California, recreational and commercial fishers have reported some of the most successful months of tuna fishing they’ve ever seen.

Read the full article at Grist

China Dominates ‘Dark’ Network Behind Global Fishing Crisis

June 4, 2025 — A new report exposes the sophisticated networks propping up Chinese squid fleets accused of illegal fishing off South America.

These activities—often carried out with Automatic Identification System (AIS) trackers turned off, or “dark”—are undercutting local fishers who depend on regional marine resources for their livelihoods, according to Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit C4ADS.

Illegal, Unreported And Unregulated

The rising demand for seafood and dwindling local stocks have pushed fishing fleets farther from home. The vessels now operate in international waters for months—even years—at a time, virtually unmonitored, increasing the risk of illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing and labor abuses.

China and Taiwan account for about 60 percent of distant-water fishing, and Chinese vessels in particular have faced growing scrutiny for allegedly operating illegally within South American exclusive economic zones, prompting rising grassroots pressure to tighten enforcement and close regulatory loopholes.

What To Know

The abundant stocks of jumbo flying squid and Argentine shortfin squid have attracted distant-water fishing fleets to the coasts of South America.

A report released Tuesday by the C4Dfound that 69 percent of squid jiggers operating off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts share ownership with ships allegedly involved in illicit activities, or vessels of concern.

While these operations are theoretically under the oversight of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organization (SPRFMO), enforcement is often spotty. The situation is even more tenuous on the Atlantic coast, which lacks a comparable fisheries management framework.

Read the full article at Newsweek

Salmon Farms in Patagonia Face Growing Opposition

August 14, 2024 — The sea is calm as dusk descends on Tarsicio Antezana’s home island of Quinchao in southern Chile. In the distance, snow-capped volcanoes turn a deep violet with the setting sun.

It’s a serene sight — except for the one thing Mr. Antezana, a retired oceanographer, cannot ignore. Not far out in the water, a strip of small, rectangular objects stretches across the sea, swaying ever so slightly with the tide. These structures might not seem like much, but Mr. Antezana knows what lies beneath the surface: a salmon farm.

Below the water, high-density net cages teem with thousands of salmon. Farms like this one are common in Los Lagos, the primary aquaculture region in Chile. The South American country is the top exporter of farmed salmon to the United States. But the popular fish are not native to this place, and many environmentalists and activists have long complained that the farms are damaging Chilean ecosystems and threatening native wildlife.

Large-scale salmon farming began in Chile in the 1970s. A young scientist at the time, Mr. Antezana was asked to evaluate the viability of farming the fish. He advised the government to establish base-line studies and to be wary of ecological and health risks.

For more than four decades, Mr. Antezana has watched the industry grow into one of the world’s leading producers of farmed salmon. Last year, farmed salmon was Chile’s second-largest export, generating $6.5 billion in revenue.

Read the full article at The New York Times

Chilean government, salmon farmers join forces in push to reduce antibiotics usage

March 26, 2024 — Eleven salmon farmers in Chile, together with the Salmon Council, SalmonChile’s Salmon Technological Institute (Intesal) and with the support of Aquabench, have joined forces with the Chilean government’s Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) and the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Service (Sernapesca) to work collaboratively towards increasing vaccines to prevent bacterial diseases and reduce the use of antibiotics.

The parties hailed the so-called “Yelcho Project” as the first public-private partnership of its kind between salmon companies, SAG, and Sernapesca. The salmon farmers participating include Aquachile, Australis Mar, Blumar, Camanchaca, Cermaq, Cultivos Yadran, Marine Farm, Mowi, Multi X, Salmones Austral, Ventisqueros, and Aquabench, which account for nearly 90 percent of Atlantic salmon production in Chile.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

A boat went dark. Finding it could help save the world’s fish.

May 25, 2023 — On an early January afternoon, a South Korean fishing boat, the Oyang 77, departed from Montevideo, Uruguay, for the plentiful waters off the coast of Argentina. A month later, it would be apprehended by the coast guard for illegal fishing.

As it intruded into Argentina’s territorial waters, the boat left a telltale digital signature, one that could be used to catch outlaw fishermen across the planet.

Read the full article at the Washington Post

China’s Huge Appetite for Fish

September 27, 2022 — A single country has accounted for about 80 percent of the fishing in the international waters just off Argentina, Ecuador and Peru this year. And it is not a South American country. It is China.

In recent years, hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels have begun to operate almost 24 hours a day, seven days a week, off the coast of South America. The ships move with the seasons, from Ecuador to Peru to Argentina. China has focused on these faraway waters after depleting fish stocks closer to its own shores.

You can see the scale of this fishing effort in the maps that are part of a Times project by Steven Lee Myers, Agnes Chang, Derek Watkins and Claire Fu.

China’s fishing expansion is part of a much larger story, of course. As the world’s most populous country, and one with an economy that has grown rapidly in recent decades, China has a growing global footprint — economically, diplomatically and militarily. It needs so much fish to feed a middle class that has become vastly larger over the past generation.

Read the full article at New York Times

U.S. urged to join South America in fighting China fishing

March 23, 2021 — The U.S. should consider leading a multilateral coalition with South American nations to push back against China’s illegal fishing and trade practices, a U.S. intelligence agency has recommended in a document obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: China’s illegal fishing industry is the largest in the world. Beijing has made distant-water fishing a geopolitical priority, viewing private Chinese fishing fleets as a way to extend state power far beyond its coasts.

  • A senior U.S. administration official confirmed to Axios that several agencies across the government are “taking a look at this in light of the president’s priorities,” which include “deepening cooperation with allies and partners on the challenges we face to our economy and national security.”

What’s happening: Huge fleets of hundreds of Chinese vessels have had boats fish illegally in the territorial waters of South American countries, including off the Galapagos Islands.

  • The activity has depleted stocks and disrupted food chains, in a practice referred to as illegal, unreported or unregulated (IUU) fishing.
  • South American nations say these fleets are a challenge to their economic and environmental security, but their navies often lack the resources to effectively monitor and patrol their own waters.
  • Last year, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru stated they would join forces to defend their territorial waters from incursions by Chinese vessels.

Read the full story at Axios

‘Prevent, discourage, confront’: South American states tackle Chinese fishing boats

November 5, 2020 — Four South American countries have joined forces in a bid to combat illegal fishing by huge Chinese fleets off their coasts.

Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru have threatened measures “to prevent, discourage and jointly confront” illegal fishing near their exclusive economic zones in the Pacific.

The joint statement made no specific mention of China but environmental groups Greenpeace and Oceana have repeatedly warned of the growing presence of Chinese fishing fleets in the area.

The South American quartet said they would boost “cooperation and real-time exchange of information” to highlight the illegal fishing.

Ecuador in July complained to China over a 300-vessel fleet off Galapagos, saying around half of them had turned off their tracking systems so they could not be located.

Read the full story at The Guardian

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