July 18, 2019 — The following was released by NOAA Fisheries:
Managing bigeye tuna in the Pacific is already challenging, and now a new study shows that climate change may affect our supply of this fish, used to make the deliciously popular ʻahi poke. The study projects the decline of catch in Hawai‘i’s bigeye tuna fishery as climate change continues to unfold. However, alternate scenarios could bolster ecosystem resilience and limit fishery declines.
Scientists from the Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, the University of Hawai‘i, and the University of Tasmania teamed up to model the ecosystem in which Hawai‘i’s bigeye tuna fishery operates. Their model projected how increasing ocean temperatures and declining plankton would affect specific fish species. (Temperature and plankton values were from a suite of climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.) The model also predicted how different scenarios, such as decreased fishing effort, could change those effects.
The scientists found that climate change led to a decline in catch regardless of whether fishing effort increased, decreased, or remained the same. A decline in bigeye tuna catch means less ‘ahi poke at your local market. However, the study also revealed fishing scenarios that may allow the ecosystem to remain resilient in the face of climate change.
“Rather than seeing the results as a doom-and-gloom future for Hawai‘i’s fishery, I see them as encouraging. They show that local choices matter, that we can decide which future scenario we want to pursue,” says lead author Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats. She points to two future scenarios in particular: In one, the fishery persisted with today’s fishing effort. In another, the fishery slowly reduced its effort to half. Both scenarios showed similar declines in bigeye tuna catch, but in the second scenario, the ecosystem was resilient despite the effects of climate change, and the biomass of each fish species increased.