September 22, 2026 — A powerful El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific, and its economic effects are already starting to show. The World Meteorological Organization expects it to strengthen further and peak near the end of the year, with an almost 100% chance that it will persist through February.
The reason markets care is that El Niño does not stay in the Pacific. It is a shift in the atmosphere system that spreads warm water eastward across the more tropical sections of the Pacific, weakening the trade winds that normally push warm surface water toward Asia.
That changes where heat and moisture accumulate, disrupting the jet stream and shifting rainfall, drought, heat and storms across different regions. For a global economy already dealing with climate change, wars and political upheaval, El Niño is mostly another headache. But not everywhere, and not for everyone.