August 22, 2023 — A recent industry report from Wells Fargo has taken a decidedly neutral stance on the overall outlook for the U.S. seafood industry over the remainder of 2023, referencing positive news for certain species like snow crab but continuing woes for other market sectors to back up its mixed prediction.
The report, “Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute’s Industry Update – Q2 2023,” listed overall food prices and demand as major factors influencing Wells Fargo’s mixed outlook.
July 10, 2023 — My small turboprop plane whirred low through thick clouds. Below me, St. Paul Island cut a golden, angular shape in the shadow-dark Bering Sea. I saw a lone island village — a grid of houses, a small harbor, and a road that followed a black ribbon of coast.
Some 330 people, most of them Indigenous, live in the village of St. Paul, about 800 miles west of Anchorage, where the local economy depends almost entirely on the commercial snow crab business. Over the last few years, 10 billion snow crabs have unexpectedly vanished from the Bering Sea. I was traveling there to find out what the villagers might do next.
The arc of St. Paul’s recent story has become a familiar one — so familiar, in fact, I couldn’t blame you if you missed it. Alaska news is full of climate elegies now — every one linked to wrenching changes caused by burning fossil fuels. I grew up in Alaska, as my parents did before me, and I’ve been writing about the state’s culture for more than 20 years. Some Alaskans’ connections go far deeper than mine. Alaska Native people have inhabited this place for more than 10,000 years.
As I’ve reported in Indigenous communities, people remind me that my sense of history is short and that the natural world moves in cycles. People in Alaska have always had to adapt.
Even so, in the last few years, I’ve seen disruptions to economies and food systems, as well as fires, floods, landslides, storms, coastal erosion, and changes to river ice — all escalating at a pace that’s hard to process. Increasingly, my stories veer from science and economics into the fundamental ability of Alaskans to keep living in rural places.
June 2, 2023 — Inflation is weighing on Americans across income levels. Customers are clearly feeling cautious and making trade off decisions. Private label sales are soaring as consumers trade down on goods. Consumers are still spending money however. Airlines and cruise ships are booked at capacity. But they are still concerned about inflation and cutting back on expensive food items.
According to a Bloomberg survey of economists the odds of a U.S. recession in 2023 are as high as 65%. Consumers still have some stimulus savings and unemployment is low allowing for continued income. Inflation, higher interest rates, the service industry, and lower consumer confidence impact what they are willing to pay for food.
The research firm Circana reported that U.S. consumers are managing their food spending by finding lower cost products than high priced proteins.
The latest example came from Costco whose customers tend to be upper middle class. Costco did not meet Wall Street analysts expectation of growth in the quarter ending May 7. Although the traffic at the stores grew 4.8% customers are walking out with smaller receipts as transactions declined -4.2%. Costco’s CFO stated that sales have shifted from beef to chicken and pork as consumers select lower priced protein. Costco as well as Walmart are actively working with suppliers to lower costs and bring price relief to consumers. Source: Wall Street Journal
Two major events are ongoing and effecting the global crab world. The first event, now embarking on its second year, is the ban of Russian crab in the U.S. and western countries. The second event is that all of Canada snow crab fishery is fully underway now that the Newfoundland/Labrador harvesters and processors have come to an agreement.
Even though there is still Russian king and snow crab in the market (because of its import prior to the ban date of June 23, 2022), some distributors have asked how long it will take to sell the remaining Russian King crab. No one knows for sure although there are some gaps appearing in inventory. However, consumers are not purchasing Russian crab products at the pace previously seen during the pandemic.
May 17, 2023 — Fresh and frozen seafood inflation at U.S. retailers declined in April, but sales still continued to drop last month.
Due to inflation and concerns about the federal government raising the borrowing cap, U.S. consumer sentiment plummeted to a six-month low in April, according to a University of Michigan survey. The overall index of consumer sentiment is at 57.7 this month, the lowest reading since last November and down from 63.5 in April, according to Reuters.
February 23, 2023 — Some emergency relief money is on the way to help crabbers impacted by the historic closure of the Bering Sea snow crab and Bristol Bay red king crab harvests in Alaska.
Washington-based fishermen, however, say more lasting attention, research and action is needed to preserve the industry as a sustainable way of life for generational small businesses.
Mark Casto owns the fishing vessel Pinnacle and says he’s been crabbing since he graduated from high school in 1986.
“I grew up in it, as a little kid I used to do it growing up, it got in my blood and it’s just been a way of life for me,” Casto said.
He’s crabbed with the same crewmates for years- some, for decades- and they’ve become a team that can anticipate each other’s next move. When Bering Sea snow crab was cancelled, they were scattered- all forced to find another way to make a living during the season.
“A few years ago I saw some stuff coming and geared up to tender, so we tendered salmon for a few years and this year with the closure of the king crab and the snow crab, we’re doing some cod tendering, just enough to keep the boat busy, get it up there, and we’ll do a small Bairdi after that,” Casto said. “But it’s a trickle-down effect. It’s hitting everybody, from the bait people to the shipyard people to the meat guys that’ve been supplying boats for years and years.”
February 7, 2023 — A debate over the potential impact of climate change in a rapid deterioration of Alaska’s crab fisheries is taking a back seat to a clash over the issue of bycatch.
Closures of the Bristol Bay red king crab and Bering Sea snow crab fisheries have resulted in losses of USD 287.7 million (EUR 278.6 million) over the past two years for Alaska’s crabbers. Scientists have said warming waters may have played a role in the disappearance of billions of snow crab to from Alaskan waters, resulting in a 90 percent decline in population. It’s a point acknowledged by Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers (ABSC) Executive Director Jamie Goen. But she said fisheries managers need to focus on measures they can directly control.
February 2, 2023 — Many consumers may not be familiar with bairdi crab, commonly referred to as Tanner crab, harvested in the Gulf of Alaska. For commercial fishermen in fishing communities throughout the gulf, including Kodiak, my hometown, the Tanner/bairdi crab fishery is the talk of the town. The anticipation and excitement are palpable around the community as the fleet gets ready to fish.
Tanner crab, Chionoecetes bairdi, is often marketed as snow crab but is technically a meatier relative of the species Chionoecetes opilio. Whether you want to sell it at retail as snow, bairdi or Tanner, I like to say just call it Alaska crab, and you’ll be good to go.
While lacking the fame of king crab, Gulf of Alaska Tanner/bairdi crab are renowned by seafood connoisseurs and particularly prized for their texture and sweet flavor. In fact, of all the crab species, many fishermen, including my family, prefer the large gulf Tanner/bairdi crab over all others. The meat is particularly sweet, with a delicate flavor and tender texture. It is not quite as rich as some other crab species, and the subtle flavor of the meat is often met with sighs of delight. The crab is harvested from the pristine Alaska marine environment, and the light taste seems to capture the sea spray, the clean air and the beauty of Alaska’s great land!
January 9, 2023 — An increase in temperature changes in the Bering Sea is linked to the decline of snow crabs, according to ongoing studies from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Snow crabs are highly stenothermic — only equipped to survive across a narrow range of cold water temperatures. According to NOAA, the species thrive best in waters of temperatures at 2 degrees Celsius and below.
From 2018 to 2019, the administration recorded Bering Sea temperatures at over 3 degrees Celsius. The water temperature spiked from 1.52 degrees in 2017 to 3.5 degrees in 2018. The following year, the warm waters remained with an average temperature of 3.33 degrees, roughly two degrees higher than the recorded average seen over the past two decades.
“In those two years, 2018 and 2019, the Bering Sea was very warm,” Ben Daly, with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, said.
January 4, 2022 — Billions of snow crab disappeared from the Bering Sea in the past few years — a crash that’s devastated Alaska’s crab fishing fleet and a harvest that just two years ago was worth $130 million.
Bycatch didn’t kill them. But the issue still dominated discussions last month at an Anchorage meeting of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council, the commission that regulates the huge, lucrative harvests of seafood in the federal waters off Alaska’s shores.
The council and its advisory panel, over the course of 10 days, spent hours listening to fishing industry representatives, tribal leaders and others call for a crackdown on bycatch by Bering Sea trawlers — the big vessels that scoop up millions of whitefish, like pollock, while sometimes accidentally “bycatching” crab and salmon.
The federal scientists who track Bering Sea harvests say there’s no way the trawl fleet could have caused the epic crash in snow crab.
Instead, they say, climate change was a major driver: A marine heat wave, combined with what had been a booming crab population, likely drove the die-off, as the crabs’ metabolism rose with warmer water temperatures and they ran out of food. Warming ocean and river temperatures are also likely driving major declines in chum salmon, which have prompted parallel calls for stricter bycatch limits.
The North Pacific council lacks the power to regulate the carbon emissions that scientists blame for global warming. That’s why participants at last month’s meetings say they’re pushing for bycatch reductions, which they describe as an essential step to help crab and salmon populations adapt and recover.
“We need to focus on things that we do have control over, and that’s really fishing impacts and habitat protections,” Jamie Goen, executive director of the Alaska Bering Sea Crabbers trade group, said at a public forum that coincided with the North Pacific council meeting. “Even though bycatch may not be what drove this stock down, we do think while it’s at such historically low levels, it could be impeding the recovery.”
But some climate activists, and a handful of climate-focused fishermen, argue that the industry needs to expand its focus to call for bolder policies to reduce carbon pollution and minimize the risk of further damage to fisheries.
“We’re all in this mess because of climate change, and it’s only going to get worse until we do something about climate change,” said Linda Behnken, executive director of the Alaska Longline Fishermen’s Association.
Behnken has publicly endorsed a carbon fee and dividend program, and her organization is currently soliciting comments on a national climate report. But many other big fishing industry groups and companies remain conspicuously silent on the issue.
“It’s been so political, and I think that’s why the big industry has stayed away from it,” Behnken said in a phone interview. “It’s surprising and disappointing, because I really do think the fishing industry has the ability to influence national and state policy.”
January 4, 2022 — Less than five years ago, prospects appeared bright for Bering Sea crab fishers. Stocks were abundant and healthy, federal biologists said, and prices were near all-time highs.
Now two dominant crab harvests have been canceled for lack of fish. For the first time, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game in October canceled the 2022-2023 harvest of Bering Sea snow crab, and it also announced the second consecutive year of closure for another important harvest, that of Bristol Bay red king crab.
What has happened between then and now? A sustained marine heat wave that prevented ice formation in the Bering Sea for two winters, thus vastly altering ocean conditions and fish health.
“We lost billions of snow crab in a matter of months,” said Bob Foy, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Alaska Fisheries Science Center, at a public forum held Dec. 12 at the Anchorage Museum of History and Art. “We don’t have a smoking gun, if you will. We don’t have one particular event that impacted the snow crab — except the heat wave.”
That heat wave is now over, but its effects linger. A NOAA survey showed an 80% decline in Bering Sea snow crab, from 11.7 billion in 2018 to 1.9 billion this year. It could take six to 10 years to recover, experts told members of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council, which wrapped up a 10-day meeting in Anchorage on Wednesday.
Snow crab may be the “poster child” of climate change, council member Bill Tweit said during deliberations on a rebuilding program that was ultimately approved at the meeting, but much more will be affected by the long-term changes in the ocean.