July 29, 2019 — There is a lot of worry and speculation about hot weather affecting sockeye runs on the east side of Bristol Bay this summer. But despite some of the hottest air and water temperatures on record, every district is meeting — or exceeding — expectations, both for escapement and harvest.
As the water temperature trends continue to rise over the years, the question at the fore is how warming water will impact salmon health, and whether it shapes the runs from year to year.
Jerri Bartholomew, Director of the Aquatic Animal Health Laboratory at Oregon State University, set the baseline for a discussion on the long-term effects of heat on salmon.
“When you try and predict what’s going to happen in an ecosystem, things just get complicated,” she said.
Trying to peer into the future of Bristol Bay salmon is a bit of a shot in the dark. Without actual data, it’s a lot of guesswork: trying to find places with ecosystems similar to the bay, then extrapolating conclusions based on what we already know.
Still, there are three pressing questions when it comes to salmon in warmer waters.
The first, basic question, is how temperature affects the fish — in both the short and long term.