July 27, 2026 — The weather phenomenon known as El Niño has already been warming ocean temperatures this year, and scientists are warning that converging forces are more likely than not going to result in a “Super” El Niño.
Before that happens, however, the weather pattern has already affected global seafood sectors.
July 21, 2026 — The following was released by the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
On July 20, 2026, researchers embarked on the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program’s West Coast Ocean Acidification mission (WCOA 2026). Departing from San Diego aboard the University of Alaska, Fairbanks (R/V) Sikuliaq, the team will travel north to Washington, adding important new observations to NOAA’s long-term monitoring of ocean acidification and its impacts on marine resources.
WCOA 2026 will couple ocean chemistry, biology, and physics to build a more comprehensive view of how extreme events impact biogeochemistry and ecosystems.
“Results from past WCOA cruises have provided novel insights into acidification rates and impacts in coastal and estuary habitats that provide our nation with rich fish and shellfish resources,” said Dr. Simone Alin, Supervisory Oceanographer, NOAA/PMEL. Resource managers and harvesters can use this information to inform fisheries management decisions.
This intensive 30-day coastal research cruise aboard the 261-foot research vessel offers scientists a unique opportunity of sampling during an El Niño that is on track to become one of the strongest on record. El Niño brings warmer water and can alter upwelling and precipitation patterns in the region. Phytoplankton and zooplankton communities will follow these warmer waters, which impacts food webs and fisheries as seen during past marine heatwaves.
Two days after the Sikuliaq departs, the PMEL SeaTrac will head south from Washington to collect added coastal measurements during peak ocean acidification and hypoxia season and pick up any El Niño signal that may have made to the northern California Current System this summer. These OA cruises provide critical high-quality data for the U.S. Coastal Large Marine Ecosystems, and are essential for modeling and forecasting changes in ocean acidification and hypoxia to better prepare for future impacts to valued fisheries and ecosystems.
Led by researchers at the University of Washington’s Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean, & Ecosystem Studies and PMEL, researchers will collect high-quality ocean chemistry data, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and other observations. Scientists will also collect environmental DNA, which can reveal the diversity and abundance of ocean life in different ocean conditions.
Data collected during WCOA 2026 are essential for validating models and forecasts of ocean conditions like J-SCOPE. This short term (six to nine month) forecast is used for the California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment. High quality ocean carbon chemistry data is required to forecast the saturation state of calcium carbonate, the mineral building block used by shellfish like Dungeness crabs, clams, and oysters.
Other coordinated regular coastal fisheries surveys, including the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) enhance the impact of WCOA 2026. By conducting biological net tows at established stations, researchers will gain high-quality data on marine life.
Ultimately, the data collected through WCOA 2026 will serve as a foundational benchmark for monitoring, modeling and research in the region. These data will provide calibration information for sensor networks designed to fill measurement gaps between research cruises. With the potential for sampling to occur as ocean conditions change with El Niño, NOAA and our partners will be able to better understand how extreme conditions alter vital marine resources like Dungeness crabs, krill, plankton and other fisheries.
July 8, 2026 — We’re not even one month into “super” El Niño, the natural Pacific weather pattern characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures, and fisheries around the world are already getting scrambled.
In Peru, government officials have effectively canceled the fishing season for anchovies, one of the country’s most important exports and a leading source of fish oil and animal feed globally. The Indian government is preparing for a season of smaller, less plentiful Indian mackerel. Meanwhile, in Southern California, recreational and commercial fishers have reported some of the most successful months of tuna fishing they’ve ever seen.
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July 6, 2026 — A developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific is expected to strengthen later this year, adding to already unusually warm ocean waters off the West Coast and raising concerns for marine ecosystems still recovering from recent heat stress.
Scientists say the combined effects of a lingering marine heatwave and a strengthening El Niño could disrupt food supplies for key species in the California Current, even as coastal upwelling may offer some localized relief.
The overlap of two warming patterns — one regional and one climate-scale — could compound stress on marine food webs that have already been repeatedly disrupted over the past decade.
June 17, 2026 — The forecasted El Niño—a mysterious but well-documented climate phenomenon—has officially begun, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on June 11. Meteorologists expect it to evolve into one of the most powerful ones on record, and the event will likely bring about extreme weather worldwide and consequently affect the economy.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” says Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, in a statement.
Here’s what you need to know about the El Niño and what it might do in the coming months.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean’s tropical region, near the equator. In the United States, the events are usually declared when the temperature rises by more than 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit for at least five consecutive seasons, each lasting three months.
The balmier water leads to changes in the air pressure. That, in turn, causes trade winds that blow westward to weaken, allowing warmer water to spread farther east than normal and pool near northwestern South America.
June 15, 2026 — A large marine heatwave has bathed parts of the West Coast in very warm ocean waters over the past year, breaking temperature records in the Pacific. NOAA has also announced that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is predicted to intensify to a moderate or strong level this fall. El Niño represents another form of marine warming , though with different drivers and influences. The prolonged period of high temperatures could affect fisheries and marine life in the California Current that have already been buffeted by shifting ocean conditions over the last decade.
One factor may help dampen the impacts, though: The same strong upwelling of cool water along the coast that fuels the West Coast ecosystem with nutrients could help keep some warmer waters at bay, as happened in 2025.
We have seen these back-to-back heat events before. About a decade ago, a major marine heatwave known as “The Blob” began raising ocean temperatures off the West Coast, peaking in 2015. One of the strongest El Niños on record followed in 2015–2016, amplifying ocean warmth—as the current forecast predicts for the coming year. That was a worst-case scenario that drove changes around the world. The Pacific endured a record count of tropical cyclones and the Caribbean Sea and parts of Africa experienced severe droughts. That situation was more extreme than now, with the Blob lasting longer and affecting the entire West Coast compared to the smaller recent marine heatwave. However, research and observations during that unprecedented climatic pileup suggest the kind of changes we may see in the coming months along the West Coast. Though these changes are centered in the Pacific, they have far-reaching impacts.
Here are some of the ways warming water can impact marine life, coastal communities, and economies.
Research found that some commercial West Coast species, such as market squid, may be sensitive to these long-term and episodic changes in ocean temperatures. The shift of market squid north along the West Coast in response to warming from the Blob and subsequent El Niño created new fishing opportunities in Oregon and Washington during the Blob that remained afterward. Squid landings in Oregon rose from none in 2015 to nearly 3 million pounds worth more than $1 million in 2016 and continued to grow rapidly through 2020. This provided new opportunities for purse seine vessels whose opportunities in other fisheries affected by the Blob—such as sardine, Alaska herring, and Alaska salmon—had dwindled. Seafood processors in Oregon scaled up to handle more squid, and Oregon fisheries managers developed their first regulations for the emerging squid fishery. Market squid had been the largest commercial fishery by volume in California, but California landings dropped by more than half from 2014 to 2015. They remain substantially lower than they were prior to the Blob and El Niño.
Meanwhile, tropical species such as whale sharks and hammerhead sharks made northerly appearances off Southern California while fishing vessels caught albacore tuna much closer to shore as far north as Washington. Fishing boats caught a skipjack tuna off the Copper River in Alaska, and surveys turned up an ocean sunfish and thresher shark off southeast Alaska. Pacific bluefin tuna increased in number and size in U.S. waters, exciting recreational anglers and generating new revenue for the charter fleet. This year, Southern California anglers have begun catching dorado and yellowfin tuna much earlier in the year than usual, suggesting these northerly shifts may have begun.
Higher sea surface temperatures also affect other fish species, including sardines and anchovy. These fish are high-energy staple foods for California sea lions that breed in Southern California’s Channel Islands, but declined with warming ocean temperatures. Sea lions turned to lower quality forage species such as rockfish and squid. Nursing sea lion mothers had to travel farther to find the food their pups needed, forcing pups to fast for longer periods at the rookery. The weight of sea lion pups declined, according to long-term studies in the Channel Islands . In El Niño years, many hungry pups set off on their own in search of food before their usual weaning time. In 2013–2016, as many as 4,000 pups arrived on California beaches, skinny and hungry. These extreme events taxed rehabilitation facilities and prompted NOAA Fisheries to declare an Unusual Mortality Event for the species. Researchers later estimated that an increase of 1 degree Celsius in sea surface temperatures could reduce the growth rate of the sea lion population to zero. A 2-degree rise would reduce the population size by about 7 percent.
June 15, 2026. — It’s official: El Niño is back. By late fall 2026, forecast models give a 2-in-3 chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño affecting the weather, climate and ocean temperatures across the planet.
El Niño is the climate system’s biggest player and one side of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It’s the heads to La Niña’s tails.
During El Niño, a swath of ocean stretching 6,000 miles (about 10,000 kilometers) westward off the coast of Ecuador warms for months on end, typically by 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius). A few degrees may not seem like much, but in that part of the world, it’s more than enough to completely reorganize wind, rainfall and temperature patterns all over the planet.
I’m a climate scientist who studies the oceans. With an El Niño expected to strengthen through the summer and fall, water temperatures will heat up even more. It’s time to start preparing.
No two El Niño events are exactly alike, though we’ve seen enough of them that forecasters have a pretty good idea of what’s likely to happen.
People tend to focus on El Niño’s impact on land, justifiably. The warm water affects air currents that leave areas wetter or drier than usual. It can ramp up storms in some areas, like the southern U.S., while tending to tamp down Atlantic hurricane activity.
El Niño can also wreak havoc on the many marine ecosystems that support the world’s fishing industries, including coral reefs and seagrass meadows.
Specifically, El Niño tends to trigger intense and widespread periods of extreme ocean warming known as marine heat waves.
Global ocean temperatures are already near record highs, so El Niño-induced marine heat waves could push many sensitive fisheries to a breaking point.
June 12, 2026 — Prepare for intense heat, drought and some flooding — it’s officially El Niño season, the National Weather Service announced Thursday.
This El Niño event could be on par with some of the strongest documented in the past, according to models from the NWS.
“There is a 63% chance that we’re looking at a very strong El Niño during the November to January time period that could rank amongst the largest El Niño events in the historical record,” Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist for the NWS in Los Angeles, said at a news conference held by the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, California. “We’re already seeing those warm temperatures lining up.”
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes warm surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s associated with higher average global temperatures, so its effects exacerbate warming from climate change. The pattern is linked to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific.
In the U.S., El Niño’s influence is most obvious in the winter, as it shifts the typical flow of the jet stream, the ribbon of air that encircles the Northern Hemisphere and drives weather patterns. The pattern typically pushes the jet stream south.
In the Pacific Northwest, that creates dry, warmer-than-usual conditions in winter, which is a concern this year because much of the region is already mired in drought after receiving middling snow. In Southern states, the trend typically brings unusually wet weather in the winter, which could prime the region for flooding.
El Niño can also drive powerful marine heat waves and scramble sea life, causing mass die-offs and bringing unusual tropical fish to coastal waters.
June 4, 2026 — Listen up, lawmakers: The Pacific Ocean is trying to send you a message about the federal budget.
About once every two to seven years, the Pacific trade winds weaken and water temperatures shift, causing profound impacts for the global climate. The phenomenon is called “El Niño.” The latest data from the world’s largest ocean are telling us that a “super El Niño: will likely develop this year, possibly among the most powerful such events ever recorded.
The possibility of a strong El Niño should serve as a wake-up call to Congress. Lawmakers are now considering the Trump administration’s proposed budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — the agency known by the acronym NOAA (pronounced “Noah”), which serves as America’s eyes and ears on the world of weather.
If lawmakers choose to hollow out and treat this agency as a set of separable parts, the consequences for American communities and for the national economy will be dire.
Lawmakers in Washington must fully fund the agency’s work to monitor global weather patterns and keep Americans informed. By doing so, they will protect us all.
May 19, 2026 — Marine heatwaves can wreak all sorts of havoc in Alaska: last year, a marine heatwave in the North Pacific ocean fueled Typhoon Halong, which devastated Alaskan communities. This summer there could be an extra hiccup: a strong El Niño event is likely according to the World Meteorological Organization, which could make the effects of a heatwave even worse.
El Niño events happen as a result of slower trade winds along the equator, which slows down the upwelling of cold water from deep in the ocean and causes overall warmer water conditions.
“We’re expecting a massive El Niño this year,” said Alaska Fisheries Science Center Director Bob Foy during a commercial fisheries trade show in Kodiak on April 16. “And it’s going to be larger than usual, it’s going to make its way to Alaska, we’ll probably see the effects of it this summer.”
The El Niño event could hit as another marine heatwave is brewing. Marine heatwaves happen when the temperature of the ocean is 4-5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the baseline average for that area. According to research from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska have been generally trending upwards over the past fifty years, with an average increase of around 0.2 degrees C per decade. But marine heatwaves across the Pacific have hit even higher temperatures, and have become more frequent since the mid 2010s.
