Saving Seafood

El Niño is back, and ocean temperatures are already near record highs – that can spell disaster for fish and corals

June 15, 2026. — It’s official: El Niño is back. By late fall 2026, forecast models give a 2-in-3 chance of a strong-to-very strong El Niño affecting the weather, climate and ocean temperatures across the planet.

El Niño is the climate system’s biggest player and one side of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. It’s the heads to La Niña’s tails.

During El Niño, a swath of ocean stretching 6,000 miles (about 10,000 kilometers) westward off the coast of Ecuador warms for months on end, typically by 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1 to 2 degrees Celsius). A few degrees may not seem like much, but in that part of the world, it’s more than enough to completely reorganize wind, rainfall and temperature patterns all over the planet.

I’m a climate scientist who studies the oceans. With an El Niño expected to strengthen through the summer and fall, water temperatures will heat up even more. It’s time to start preparing.

How does El Niño affect the planet?

No two El Niño events are exactly alike, though we’ve seen enough of them that forecasters have a pretty good idea of what’s likely to happen.

People tend to focus on El Niño’s impact on land, justifiably. The warm water affects air currents that leave areas wetter or drier than usual. It can ramp up storms in some areas, like the southern U.S., while tending to tamp down Atlantic hurricane activity.

El Niño can also wreak havoc on the many marine ecosystems that support the world’s fishing industries, including coral reefs and seagrass meadows.

Specifically, El Niño tends to trigger intense and widespread periods of extreme ocean warming known as marine heat waves.

Global ocean temperatures are already near record highs, so El Niño-induced marine heat waves could push many sensitive fisheries to a breaking point.

Read the full article at the Conversation

El Niño is officially here, and this one could be a doozy

June 12, 2026 — Prepare for intense heat, drought and some flooding — it’s officially El Niño season, the National Weather Service announced Thursday.

This El Niño event could be on par with some of the strongest documented in the past, according to models from the NWS.

“There is a 63% chance that we’re looking at a very strong El Niño during the November to January time period that could rank amongst the largest El Niño events in the historical record,” Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist for the NWS in Los Angeles, said at a news conference held by the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, California. “We’re already seeing those warm temperatures lining up.”

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that causes warm surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s associated with higher average global temperatures, so its effects exacerbate warming from climate change. The pattern is linked to fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and more in the Pacific.

In the U.S., El Niño’s influence is most obvious in the winter, as it shifts the typical flow of the jet stream, the ribbon of air that encircles the Northern Hemisphere and drives weather patterns. The pattern typically pushes the jet stream south.

In the Pacific Northwest, that creates dry, warmer-than-usual conditions in winter, which is a concern this year because much of the region is already mired in drought after receiving middling snow. In Southern states, the trend typically brings unusually wet weather in the winter, which could prime the region for flooding.

El Niño can also drive powerful marine heat waves and scramble sea life, causing mass die-offs and bringing unusual tropical fish to coastal waters.

Read the full article at NBC News

Feds will abruptly dismantle system monitoring climate change, oceans

June 11, 2026 –The National Science Foundation has begun dismantling a major ocean monitoring network more than a decade earlier than planned.

Some scientists say it will be a “tragic” loss of crucial information about the world’s warming oceans.

The dismantling will end most of the monitoring in one of the nation’s most advanced, continuous observing systems less than halfway through its intended 25-year lifespan. Researchers warn that the loss of measurements will limit efforts to better understand ocean phenomena, including marine heat waves, hurricanes, fisheries and long-term shifts in climate, even as the oceans reach record-warm temperatures.

The Science Foundation-funded Ocean Observatories Initiative oversees web-like arrays of instruments and sensors from the surface to the sea floor in remote ocean regions. The foundation will remove four of its last five arrays by the end of summer 2027, according to a statement by Jim Edson, a principal investigator for the initiative and senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Read the full article at USA TODAY

A new job for sharks: Oceanographers improving climate forecasts

June 9, 2026 — A mighty predator of the sea, capable of traveling vast distances and diving thousands of feet deep, may become a valuable tool in helping forecast climate change.

In a new study, University of Miami Rosenstiel School researchers found that sensors usually attached to sharks to investigate their behavior can also allow scientists to track temperature changes in parts of the oceans often inaccessible to satellites and drifters pulled by currents. Using mako and blue sharks, among the most nomadic of sharks, scientists were able to fill in data gaps and improve some forecasts by as much as 40%.

”What we ended up seeing is what we’re calling model improvements in shallow areas, in the Slope Sea [in the Northwest Atlantic] and along the continental shelf,” said Laura McDonnell, lead author and now a researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Read the full article at WLRN

Loss of ocean monitoring could create fisheries blind spot

June 8, 2026 — The Alaska Marine Community Coalition is raising concerns over plans to dismantle much of the federal Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), arguing that the loss of long-term ocean monitoring could reduce critical information used to understand changing conditions in Alaska’s fisheries.

In a recent statement, the coalition said the National Science Foundation plans to remove in-water equipment from four of the five OOI sites over the next 15 months, including Ocean Station Papa in the Gulf of Alaska, located roughly 620 miles offshore. The network has collected continuous oceanographic data since 2016, while Station Papa itself has served as one of the North Pacific’s longest-running ocean monitoring locations.

The coalition said the station provides information on deep-water temperatures, ocean chemistry, currents and biological conditions that help scientists track changes affecting species including salmon, halibut, crab and pollock.

Read the full article at the National Fisherman

Congress should heed the Pacific Ocean’s super El Niño warning

June 4, 2026 — Listen up, lawmakers: The Pacific Ocean is trying to send you a message about the federal budget.

About once every two to seven years, the Pacific trade winds weaken and water temperatures shift, causing profound impacts for the global climate. The phenomenon is called “El Niño.” The latest data from the world’s largest ocean are telling us that a “super El Niño: will likely develop this year, possibly among the most powerful such events ever recorded.

The possibility of a strong El Niño should serve as a wake-up call to Congress. Lawmakers are now considering the Trump administration’s proposed budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — the agency known by the acronym NOAA (pronounced “Noah”), which serves as America’s eyes and ears on the world of weather.

If lawmakers choose to hollow out and treat this agency as a set of separable parts, the consequences for American communities and for the national economy will be dire.

Lawmakers in Washington must fully fund the agency’s work to monitor global weather patterns and keep Americans informed. By doing so, they will protect us all.

Read the full article at The Hill

In Kachemak Bay, Kotzebue and beyond, Alaskans are on the lookout for harmful algae blooms

June 3, 2026 — Algae is vital to a healthy marine system, and most of the hundreds of varieties in Alaska’s waters are beneficial or benign.

But the handful that are harmful are, like other algae, proliferating in warmer conditions and releasing or threatening to release toxins that can sicken people and wildlife and, in the worst cases, cause deaths.

The best-known type of algae that poses risks to people, mammals and birds in Alaska is called Alexandrium. The toxins it produces cause paralytic shellfish poisoning; they block the delivery of sodium to cells, thus interfering with or shutting down nerves essential to bodily functions.

The most potent Alexandrium toxin is saxitoxin, but there are related toxins produced by the same algae called gonyautoxins, or GTX. Some GTX varieties, including one detected in tomcod harvested in December by Nome-Beltz High School students in a yearslong science project, are nearly as toxic as saxitoxin. For simplicity’s sake, testing for paralytic toxins often lumps measurements of saxitoxin and GTX compounds together as “saxitoxin equivalent,” said Thomas Farrugia, coordinator of the Alaska Harmful Algal Bloom network.

Read the full article at Alaska Public Media

ALASKA: Algal toxins emerge as a new concern in Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea

June 1, 2026 — For countless generations, people of the Bering Strait region have relied on the food they harvest from the sea without worrying about harmful algal blooms that threaten seafood eaters in warmer and more southern latitudes.

Now, as the Northern Bering Sea undergoes cascading effects of a warming climate, algal risks pose a new challenge.

The change has been dramatic.

And it has prompted a change in the way Nome youth grow up learning about collecting food from the waters around their home. In early April, Nome high school students traveled to Bethel with their science teacher, where they presented their research at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference held by Alaska Sea Grant.

Algal toxins were present, at very low but detectable levels, in fish they eat.

Sophomore Audrey Bruner-Alvanna was among the group of student researchers. She said young people are concerned about algal blooms, which proliferate in warmer conditions, and their potential effects on wild food resources.

Read the full article at the Alaska Beacon

Why an immense marine heatwave off the US west coast has alarmed scientists

May 26, 2026 — An enormous marine heatwave off the US west coast is ringing alarm bells among ocean and atmospheric scientists as new data shows its ecological and environmental effects are intensifying.

The unusual area of warm water has persisted since peaking in size during September 2025 and still stretches thousands of miles from the California coastline – more than halfway across the Pacific – affecting a vast triangle-shaped region of oceanic habitats from Hawaii to British Columbia and southward to Mexico.

As recently as early April, marine scientists had hoped that the heatwave might diminish and the worst of its effects might be avoided. However, new projections released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) show it is now expected to expand and strengthen in the months to come.

Read the full article at The Guardian

NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

May 22, 2026 — Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Read the full article at NOAA Fisheries