Saving Seafood

NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

May 22, 2026 — Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Read the full article at NOAA Fisheries

Warming Accelerates Ecological State Shift Along Maine Coast

May 20, 2026 — The loss of dense kelp forests along the Maine coast — and the northward proliferation of small, carpet-like turf algae in its place — is accelerating as the ocean warms, according to new research by scientists at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences.

Published recently in Ecology, the research shows that warming is facilitating the arrival of new species into the Gulf of Maine, and that the transition from kelp forests to turf reefs has progressed rapidly in recent years. The study, which covers some of the hottest years on record in the region, highlights both the direct and indirect impacts of environmental change on temperate reef ecosystems and the vital services they provide.

“The progression of this shift from kelp forests to turf algae played out right before our eyes,” said Senior Research Scientist Doug Rasher, the senior author on the paper. “We’re digging into what’s driving this transition, and what’s being gained or lost as a result, which allows us to speak more to the future of this ecosystem.”

The new paper builds on previous research published by Rasher’s team, including a study published in 2024 that provided a coastwide assessment on the state of Maine’s kelp forests up to 2018. That analysis, combined with long-term monitoring data from the Department of Marine Resources, drew a causal link between kelp forest decline and rising ocean temperatures. It also documented a widespread shift to turf algae in the southern reaches of the coast. Subsequently, the team examined several of the consequences of that state shift, including changes to the reef’s chemical environment and its food web dynamics.

Read the full article at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences

Rising California sea temperatures trigger legal requirement to protect endangered sea turtles

May 19, 2026 — A heatwave in the Pacific Ocean has triggered a legal requirement to protect loggerhead sea turtles, which are endangered species listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

In a bulletin issued Monday morning, the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) stated that officials from their office notified the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries of its legal responsibility to close a large area of the Pacific coast off to swordfish drift gillnets.

A drift gillnet is a type of fishing net that is not fixed to the seabed but allowed to drift with the current and is used to catch fish by having them swim into it. Some drift gillnet fleets can be over 10 kilometers (roughly 6.2 miles) long, and several fleets may be fished by a vessel at once, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Now, with the unusually warm waters off Southern California, wildlife officials say the NOAA Fisheries must act before June 1 to avoid a lawsuit.

Read the full article at KTLA

Marine heatwave could combine with El Niño in Alaska this summer

May 19, 2026 — Marine heatwaves can wreak all sorts of havoc in Alaska: last year, a marine heatwave in the North Pacific ocean fueled Typhoon Halong, which devastated Alaskan communities. This summer there could be an extra hiccup: a strong El Niño event is likely according to the World Meteorological Organization, which could make the effects of a heatwave even worse.

El Niño events happen as a result of slower trade winds along the equator, which slows down the upwelling of cold water from deep in the ocean and causes overall warmer water conditions.

“We’re expecting a massive El Niño this year,” said Alaska Fisheries Science Center Director Bob Foy during a commercial fisheries trade show in Kodiak on April 16. “And it’s going to be larger than usual, it’s going to make its way to Alaska, we’ll probably see the effects of it this summer.”

The El Niño event could hit as another marine heatwave is brewing. Marine heatwaves happen when the temperature of the ocean is 4-5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than the baseline average for that area. According to research from the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska have been generally trending upwards over the past fifty years, with an average increase of around 0.2 degrees C per decade. But marine heatwaves across the Pacific have hit even higher temperatures, and have become more frequent since the mid 2010s.

Read the full article at KMXT

What’s a ‘super El Niño’? And other El Niño questions, answered

May 18, 2026 — The odds are in El Niño’s favor right now.

This natural weather phenomenon, part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, occurs when warmer-than-average water extends throughout most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean just below the surface. That’s happening now. And powerful bursts of westerly wind have pushed immense amounts of warm water eastward, toward the Niño3.4 region where sea surface temperature, along with other atmospheric conditions, is used to assess the state of ENSO.

On May 14, in its monthly ENSO outlook, the NOAA/National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center gave an 82% chance that El Niño will be in place for the period May through July, which implies that it’ll be here within weeks.

How do experts know when El Niño has arrived?

El Niño conditions are declared when the atmosphere and ocean are in sync and the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature is at least 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9°F) warmer than the seasonal average.

But just as hurricanes can and do stray from the “cone of uncertainty” at times, it’s vital to remember that El Niño can do much the same. Preparing for the prototypical outcomes is a smart move, as long as you keep in mind that forecasting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is more a matter of probabilities than certainties.

NOAA now uses a Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, in which the Niño3.4 value is adjusted relative to the world’s tropical oceans as a whole; the goal is to keep global warming from smudging the signal of El Niño and La Niña events themselves.

Nearly all seasonal forecast ensembles used to predict ENSO at agencies around the world now concur that the imminent event is likely to bring Niño3.4 warming of at least 1.5°C, which would push it into the “strong” category. And some of the ensemble averages are now going well above 2°C, even for the adjusted RONI index. That would put it in the ballpark of the biggest El Niño events in the NOAA database going back to 1950.

Individual ensemble members still cover a fairly broad range, with outcomes varying from a weak event to a record-stomping one, but as shown below, they’re about as close to being unanimous on a significant El Niño as you’re likely to see. (This output is mainly using the traditional pre-RONI index, which tends to run slightly hotter on recent El Niño events.)

Read the full article at Yale Climate Connections

Groundwater plays a critical role in Southcentral Alaska salmon rivers

May 15, 2026 — Groundwater discharge plays a critical role in salmon-rich rivers of Southcentral Alaska and managing this limited resource, particularly when salmon are migrating, requires a delicate balance.

These groundwaters also support increasing demands of people living in the area, as climate change introduces greater uncertainty in water resources and fisheries, notes a new study published in April in the online Journal of the American Water Resources Association.

Groundwater is traditionally defined as water stored and transmitted within the saturated zone but commonly includes the continuum of water stored and transmitted in both the unsaturated and saturated zones.

Read the full article at National Fisherman

Birds dying along California beaches as marine heat wave intensifies

May 14, 2026 — The ocean off California’s coast is heating up again, with marine heat wave conditions stretching across much of the eastern Pacific. In some areas, sea surface temperatures are running 4 to 8 degrees above average.

At the Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier in La Jolla, ocean temperatures have reached record highs on more than 30 days through April, with roughly one in five days this year setting a record for that date.

Scientists say the warming is already reshaping conditions along the California coast, where shifts in ocean temperature ripple quickly through the food web — from plankton to fish to the birds and marine mammals that depend on them.

Read the full article at VC Star

Some seas may soon be trapped in near-permanent heatwaves, scientists warn

May 13, 2026 — Seas recover. That’s the working assumption behind most marine conservation planning – heatwaves arrive, fish flee or die, then the water cools and the count resets.

A new study of 19 enclosed seas found that resets after heatwaves may stop happening. Some are on track to spend more than 330 days a year locked in heatwave conditions. Not a temporary extreme. A new permanent state.

Impact of heatwaves on Earth’s seas

The findings come from a team led by Matthias Gröger, a physical oceanographer at the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) in Germany. His group ran climate model projections for 19 enclosed seas around the world.

These are stretches of saltwater hemmed in by land – the Mediterranean, the Baltic, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and 15 others. Small and shallow compared to open ocean basins, with little water exchange beyond their narrow gates.

That geometry is the problem. Heat that would dissipate across the Pacific instead piles up in a confined space. Nowhere to go, no way to dump it.

Read the full article at Earth.com

Wildlife faces die-off risk as marine heat wave lingers over California

May 13, 2026 — The ocean off California’s coast is heating up again — and this time, the impacts are showing up on shore.

The marine heat wave has developed across much of the West Coast, stretching from Washington to California. In some areas, ocean temperatures have climbed 4 to 8 degrees above average. At the Scripps Pier in San Diego, ocean temperatures have logged record-high readings on more than 30 days through April, with about one-fifth of the year so far reaching record levels for that location.

Scientists have long warned of this pattern: when ocean temperatures spike, the effects move quickly through the food web, from plankton to fish to the animals that depend on them.

Read the full article at USA TODAY

Marine life finds new home at base of wind turbines

May 14, 2026 — As lobsters migrate to colder waters due to climate change, Jonah crabs are becoming one of the most important species for fisheries in Southern New England.

“As the biomass of the American lobster declines due to climate-related changes and shifting ocean conditions, many fishermen have adapted by targeting other valuable species, and the Jonah crab has become a major alternative,” said Emmanuel Oyewole, a first-year Ph.D. student in the University of Rhode Island’s Graduate School of Oceanography. “The Jonah crab used to be considered a bycatch species and thrown back because lobster was so lucrative. As lobsters became less abundant, people started to realize that the Jonah crab is a viable and delicious alternative.”

Oyewole is conducting a study that is partly funded by a grant from The Nature Conservancy into how offshore wind farm structures are impacting the growth and habitats of Jonah crabs.

“Ecologically, Jonah crabs also play an important role in the marine food web,” said Oyewole, who is from Ilé-Ifẹ̀, Nigeria, a town in the southwestern part of the country. “They are both predators and prey, helping to maintain balance within benthic ecosystems. Because they are closely connected to seafloor habitats, they can help us understand how offshore wind farm structures may influence local biodiversity, habitat use, and the productivity of fisheries.”

When turbine foundations are installed on the seafloor, their hard surfaces become desirable habitats for marine organisms to attach, grow, and live, just as they do on natural rock or reefs. As algae, barnacles, mussels, and other small marine life, settle on these structures, these smaller organisms attract larger species such as crabs and fish that come to feed, hide, or seek shelter.

Read the full article at the University of Rhode Island