January 18, 2013 — Fisheries stock assessments have less than a one-in-five track record in predicting the potential catch, according to a study published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The study, partly sponsored by NOAA and conducted at the University of Washington, concluded that fisheries managers need to start looking at environmental conditions that affect fish stocks and move more quickly to respond to natural or manmade changes that may have more of an effect than fishing does.
Only 18 percent of the 230 stock assessments examined had a clear connection between abundance and available catch, the study concluded. The rest point to other factors, to changes in the ocean environment and the behavior of fish.
"There are possible factors that we're not aware of. We certainly know that there are oceanographic conditions that cause fish to move around," Rick Methot, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's chief of stock assessments, told The Standard-Times from his Seattle office.
"The ocean is a complicated place," he said.
So is fisheries management, and this new study will make it even more complicated, he agreed. He said he is familiar with the uproar over the wildly changing yellowtail flounder assessments that threaten to shut down the Northeast groundfish fleet next year.
NOAA, he said, is "working toward implementing as much of an ecosystem-based approach as we can. We should be looking to adjust criteria as we can demonstrate changes. The challenge is knowing when short-term change is really the beginning of a persistent change," Methot said.
The study was conducted by Washington University marine science professor Ray Hilborn, a renowned researcher and author.
Read the full story in the New Bedford Standard Times