WASHINGTON – March 8, 2011 – At today's Oceans Subcommittee hearing, in addition to his comments and written testimony, Senator John Kerry included a report "Quantifying Uncertainty in Catch Forecasts" written by Professor Steven X. Cadrin, Ph.D of the UMass School for Marine Science & Technology. It was prepared for and delivered at the National Annual Catch Limit Scientific Workshop in Silver Spring, Maryland on February 15-17, 2011.
Mayor Scott Lang of New Bedford, Massachusetts, the nation's top dollar fishing port, asked Senator Kerry to include the report.
The report explains that many scientific recommendations that were formed before the new fishery management system was defined are not an appropriate basis for annual catch limits, because they are overly precautionary.
In his letter to Senator Kerry, Mayor Lang notes that "the 2007 reauthorization of the Act requires Annual Catch limits 'such that overfishing does not occur.' The guidelines developed by the Fisheries Service recognize that fishery science is inexact and that catch limits need to consider uncertainty in the overfishing limit and how risky stakeholders want to be, with stakeholders represented by the Regional Fishery Management Councils. Catch limits are no longer black-or-white. Unfortunately, as Councils revised fishery management plans to meet the 2010-2011 deadlines for Annual Catch Limits, they used scientific information that was developed for the black-or-white management system. The result is that the overfishing limits are themselves precautionary, and layering an additional uncertainty buffer between the overfishing limit and the catch limit creates catch limits that are much more cautious than Councils intend them to be."
According to the mayor, "This additional precaution in the overfishing limit comes at great short-term cost and requires rebuilding to much greater stock sizes than mandated in the Act. This unnecessary additional precaution is costing jobs, causing economic harm, and hurting our citizens."
Read Mayor Lang's letter to Senator Kerry describing Dr. Cadrin's report.