May 5, 2026 — Every year, state biologists predict how many salmon can be commercially harvested in relation to expected run strengths. It guides how they manage the state’s fisheries, like when and where they open and for how long. The state Department of Fish and Game announced in April that this year’s expected overall harvest is 126 million fish, which is 90 million fewer fish than what was expected last year.
“It’s not, not particularly concerning to me,” said Forrest Bowers, who heads the state’s Division of Commercial Fisheries. He said there is inherent uncertainty in the forecasts. “Keep in mind, this is a projection. You know, the accuracy of the projection varies across the state, particularly for stocks like coho salmon, they are very difficult to forecast. Chum can be difficult to forecast as well.”
Still, it’s less than two-thirds of what they ended up harvesting last year. That huge gap mostly boils down to one species – pinks, also known as humpies. Their two-year life cycle is the shortest of all salmon. And for whatever reason, their runs in Alaska are far smaller in even-numbered years.
Pinks are the most commercially harvested salmon. Last year, they made up about 61% of the total expected commercial harvest. This year, they make up nearly 44%.