A UMass Dartmouth School of Marine Science & Technology analysis of Framework 21 conducted by Chancellor Professor of Economics Daniel Georgianna predicts 25% losses in annual revenue per full-time scallop vessel. It also suggests that the recent history of higher than predicted landings may indicate reasons for increasing catch limits, not decreasing them.
A UMass Dartmouth School of Marine Science & Technology analysis conducted by Chancellor Professor of Economics Daniel Georgianna predicts substantial losses in annual revenue per full-time scallop vessels (about 25%) and substantial losses in total effects to the Northeast Region.
The study notes that the losses in total effects were probably underestimated because they do not include losses from on-shore processing and retail sales.
In recent years, actual scallop landings have usually been higher than those predicted by the models used in the frameworks. Higher than predicted landings would mitigate at least some of the losses expected by this short-term economic impact analysis relative to 2009 landings, but raise questions about the biological model used in FW 21.
In 2008, more than ½ of landings per full-time vessels came from the closed areas. About the same results are expected in 2009. As closed area trips have fixed trip limits, the overages of landing were due to much higher than predicted landings per day in the open areas. This was caused by either larger biomass in the closed area than the model predicted or higher rates of processing on board.
Rather than evidence for reducing the catch limits, as stated by FW 21, the excess of actual over predicted landings may indicate reasons for increasing catch limits.
The study noted that the results from this short-term impact analysis are not directly comparable to the analysis of long-term effects done for FW 21, which showed modest improvements in revenues and producer and consumer surpluses from 2010 through 2023 compared with the higher management target fishing mortality of 0.24.
While OMB guidelines prescribe long-run economic analysis for fishery management plans, both short-run and long-run economic impact projections are useful for achieving the “optimum yield from each fishery for the United States fishing industry” (MSA, National Standards, p.58).
Short-term analysis is useful because FW 21 was intended to set catch limits for 2010 only, not future years. The history of scallop management indicates that frameworks change substantially every two years. The length of time over which to estimate benefits strongly affects the results.
Using the analysis from FW 21, Georgetown Economics shows that over a three-year period (2010 – 2012) the present value of benefits from the higher fishing mortality (F=0.24) surpasses the benefits from the fishing mortality chosen by the Council (F=0.20).