SEAFOODNEWS.COM (by John Sackton) — May 21, 2014 — The Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run this year is forecast to be around 26.58 million fish, with a commercial harvest pegged at 16.86 million fish.
Last year's harvest was around 15.5 million fish, slightly below the forecast. The reduction in supply led to a major price spike, with the base price to harvesters around $1.50, the highest level it had been in many years.
This year the run may be coming in early. Packers report that tenders will be on the ground by June 9th.
This year, the commercial Togiak herring fishery began on April 27th, compared to May 11th in 2013 and May 14th in 2012.
In 2013, the date where Bristol Bay harvests first passed 1 million fish per day – which normally indicates the peak of the run is arriving, was June 23rd. That was the second earliest date since 1993, according to ADF&G.
This year the peak run may be even earlier, coming between June 22 and June 29th, according to some observers.
Water temperature is a key factor in run timing, and this year water temperatures are even warmer than last year.
For example, one station near Unalaska is reporting sea surface temperatures of 43.5 degrees this month, vs. 41.5 degrees at the same location in May of 2013, and 40.5 degrees at the same location in 2012.
The Bristol Bay run has accounted for a lower percentage of global sockeye salmon in recent years, as harvests have increased in Russia, and other Alaskan fisheries as well. Since 2010, when the large harvest of around 175 million pounds represented 55% of global supply, a declining trend for harvests has meant that in 2013, Bristol Bay accounted for less than 40% of global sockeye supply.
However, the percentage of fresh, fillet and frozen H&G sockeye has been increasing, as has the use of ice and referigreration of the catch. in 2013, frozen H&G accounted for 48% of the pack, frozen fillets 11%, and fresh H&G 2%. Canned salmon accounted for 36%.
This story originally appeared on Seafood.com, a subscription site. It is reprinted with permission.