SEAFOODNEWS.COM by John Sackton — October 2, 2014 — The news from the New England Fishery Mangement council meeting on Gulf of Maine cod was not good.
The stock assessements have shown a collapsing population, that is only 3% to 4% of the target spawning biomass.
At the same time there is evidence that the reduced population is aggregating in certain areas, particlurly the Western Gulf of Maine, allowing inshore fishermen to exploit the aggregations.
This type of collapsing aggregation is similar to what happened in Newfoundland prior to the cod moratorium. According to work done by Dr. George Rose of Memorial University, before the moratorium the declining northern cod stock had aggregated on the southern end of its range. Heavy fishing pressure continued, with the managers and vessels not realizing they were fishing on the last remnants of the population.
Several commenters at the New England Council, notably the Gulf of Maine Research institute, have raised this possibiility for New England.
In both Newfoundland and New England, environmental factors have been the driver of cod stock collapse or movement to different areas, but the impact of these changes was exacerbated by overfishing.
If a population is reduced to a very small size due to environmental factors or changes in patterns of forage fish, that stock will recover quickly when conditions improve.
But if the remnant population is eliminated, through heavy fishing on the last aggregations, the recovery will take decades, if it occurs at all.
This is the dilemma facing New England. Inshore fishermen see cod when they fish in areas of aggregation, but the scientists estimate these are the last remaining aggregations for the entire Gulf of Maine.
At the groundfish discussion yesterday, the council could not get a majority to support any plan. As a result, the kicked the problem back to NMFS regional adminstator John Bullard.
The two primary options being considered are a closure west of 70 degrees longitude, for both commercial and recreational fishing during major parts of the year. This would protect the aggregations, but largely shut down the inshore fleet once the small by-catch limits were caught.
In many of the models, a removal limit of 200 tons was projected. Some could see a limit of 500 tons. But the Gulf of Maine biomass is estimated at an all time low of 2100 to 2400 tons. These plans would also force a closure on much of the recreational and charter fishing that currently takes 30% or more of the cod catch.
A second proposal called for expansion of temporary closures to protect spawning areas. As the cod move seasonally, this would also significantly reduce catches.
Bullard said he will take action on an emergency basis in November, and that will be in effect for six months, and can be extended another six months.
One problem may be that no amount of cutbacks will rebuild the stock. In one discusson of the models, scientists said they had to assume a rebound in the ability of the stock to reproduce to more historical norms – which they have not been seeing. Without this adjustment, even at zero fishing, the stock will not recover to a target biomass within ten years. In other words, if the current low levels of reproduction continue the stock can't be rebuilt to a target level regardless of the limits placed on fishery removals.
Newfoundland today has healthy fisheries that are not based on cod. The crab and shrimp fisheries have become immensely valuable, and although there are fewer harvesters, the incomes of those remaining are higher than they were in the heyday of cod.
New England's fisheries are not just about cod. As one of the commenters at the Council said, the overall groundfishery is worth about $100 million, and cod is only $5 million of that. Fish such as monkfish, pollock, hake, skate are all being landed and sold.
In additon to groundfish, the even larger fisheries in New England are lobsters and scallops. Lobsters have been at near record levels recently, although are less abundant this year. Scallops are managed on a sustainable basis with stocks showing a planned increase over the next several years.
The problem for the managers and the fleet is that cod is so mixed in with other groundfish species that avoiding cod while still catching the other species is very difficult.
Despite the chaos of the last few years in the fishery, the idea that further measures can somehow be pushed down the road just does not appear viable or even legal. As a result, the turmoil in New England fisheries will continue.
This story originally appeared on Seafood.com, a subscription site. It is reprinted with permission.