June 5, 2017 — Morley et al. 2018, a paper published May 16, 2018 in PLOS one (open access) projects how warming ocean temperatures will affect the geographic distribution of 686 commercially important species around North America. We already know that species across the globe are migrating due to climate change: organisms that require cooler environments are moving towards the poles while species that tolerate warmer conditions find themselves with more space to live.
Species migration and shifting home ranges have serious implications for natural resource management, particularly fisheries. Fishing boats may have to travel further to find fish, using more time & fuel; fishing communities and livelihoods could be lost as fish move away; or fish in one country’s jurisdiction (EEZ), may move to another country’s. The key management issue is the uncertainty. Fishers need to know how fish will be distributed in the future to adapt to warming temperatures and preserve their income and livelihoods.
The recent study should help fishery managers, fishers, and other stakeholders prepare for the future as it contains the most comprehensive projection of fisheries migration under climate change to date. Using over a hundred thousand data points from U.S. and Canadian fishery surveys over the past 50 years, researchers examined the relationship between temperature, depth, and habitat to establish home ranges for 686 species on the North American continental shelf; then used several climate models to see how home ranges would change under different emissions scenarios (representative concentration pathways—or RCPs).