October 8, 2026 — What does El Niño mean for U.S. fisheries and marine life? What can fishermen and coastal communities expect to observe and experience as this event continues and potentially intensifies? And what are scientists at NOAA Fisheries doing to track this natural phenomenon?
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a powerful atmospheric cycle that occurs in the Pacific Ocean along the Equator and weakens trade winds that blow from east to west. This allows warm surface water in the Pacific to slosh back east towards the Americas. It reduces the amount of cold water upwelling that usually occurs off the coast of South America. This natural phenomenon can have intense atmospheric and oceanographic effects, such as increased precipitation, flooding, and warmer ocean temperatures. These impacts vary by geographic location but are typically felt most directly by regions within the Pacific Basin.
In June 2026, NOAA forecasters announced that El Niño had formed in the tropical Pacific. As of October, they have predicted a greater than 83 percent chance of a “very strong event” during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026–27. Experts expect this event will persist through early spring 2027, with the potential for observable impacts in marine ecosystems for months or even years afterwards.
Scientists still can’t predict exactly what will occur during this period. But NOAA Fisheries can draw upon historic observations and an abundance of data collected throughout previous El Niño events to suggest likely impacts across our ecosystems. Additionally, we are actively deploying tools and strategies to monitor and predict El Niño’s impact on the marine environment across the United States, including:
- Surveys aboard NOAA vessels and aircraft
- Ocean sampling using uncrewed vehicles such as gliders
- State-of-the-art ocean and biological response forecasting models
- Cooperative research engaging local commercial and recreational fishermen
Learn more about what you can expect from this El Niño event and what NOAA Fisheries is doing to forecast and document its impacts.