December 6, 2023 — Weather forecasts only look out a few days to weeks. Two new research studies describe the increasing accuracy of specialized scientific models in forecasting changes in the ocean up to a year in advance.
The models have increasing value as climate change drives shifts in ocean temperatures and other conditions with new and unexpected outcomes. The changes can have ecological and economic repercussions. For example, warming ocean temperatures increase the overlap between fishing fleets and protected species like whales and sea turtles, which can trigger fishing closures. The research was conducted by scientists at NOAA Fisheries and University of California, Santa Cruz.
NOAA Fisheries is also pursuing development of “Climate-Ready Fisheries” that adjust to changing conditions, even over the course of a single fishing season. Some forecasts examined in the new studies could provide insight as much as a year in advance. This could highlight potential conflicts or opportunities in time for managers and fishermen to do something about them. This kind of proactive management was highlighted in the recent National Climate Assessment as an important approach to addressing the impacts of climate change.
“We can now look months or even a year out and ask, what is that part of the ocean going to look like, and what does that mean for the species and for the people and industries who use it?” said Stephanie Brodie, lead author of one of the new studies. “For fisheries, it gives managers a chance to evaluate the trade-offs in reducing human-wildlife conflict and supporting an economically viable fishery.”