Saving Seafood

The El Niño stars are aligning in record-breaking ways. Here’s how the high tides stack up

October 16, 2026 — With homes nearly toppling into the ocean and back-to-back floods and hurricanes amplifying our sense of dread, keeping track of all things El Niño can be overwhelming.

So I called up Patrick Barnard, who spent years leading the U.S. Geological Survey’s renowned coastal hazards team in California and now helms key climate adaptation research at UC Santa Cruz. A maestro at bringing together all manner of data, Barnard broke down the numbers in no-nonsense terms — explaining why the coming weeks and months might bring extreme flooding like we’ve never seen before.

“All the stars are aligning for a pretty dramatic winter,” said Barnard, as he pored over the El Niño tea leaves, so to speak, and rattled off every high tide phenomenon on track to converge by the holidays. “If you start stacking all these things up, the flood risk just goes up exponentially.”

To start, the waters off the California coast have been the hottest they have ever been at this time of year. Multiple temperature records have been shattered, and an intense marine heat wave has been churning since last December — making our typical high tides even higher — El Niño notwithstanding.

Warm water, put simply, expands, whereas cold water takes up less space. And this heat wave alone, Barnard explained, has already made sea level rise temporarily by about 6 inches.

Now add El Niño on top of these 6 inches. Historically, El Niño can raise water levels along the West Coast by an additional 6 to 12 inches throughout the winter, and key indicators for this season are already pointing to a supercharged El Niño.

Read the full article at the LA Times

NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season

May 22, 2026 — Forecasters with NOAA’s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

“With the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “Our experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.”

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Read the full article at NOAA Fisheries

What is a ‘super El Niño’? Scientists predict record-breaking climate event this year

March 24, 2026 — The ever-shifting, interconnected system of global air and ocean currents dictates the weather we experience daily.

This year, however, scientists are warning that a particularly potent version of one of Earth’s most infamous climate phenomena, El Niño, could dramatically alter these patterns.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain recently posted on X (formerly Twitter), stating: “Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event.”

This sentiment was echoed by Washington Post meteorologist Ben Noll, who cautioned that “changes in location, intensity and frequency of droughts, floods, heat waves and hurricanes are all likely.”

Read the full article at the Independent

Study estimates recent hurricanes inflicted $579 million in damage to Louisiana fisheries

January 14, 2022 — Hurricanes over the past two seasons delivered an estimated $579 million in losses to Louisiana’s commercial fishing industry, a new state study shows.

Findings of the study, conducted by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, LSU and Louisiana Sea Grant, were released Thursday.

The study analyzes losses to infrastructure, including boats, seafood sales and fish and seafood stocks. It also projects financial losses from the past two hurricane seasons that are continuing into 2022.

Read the full story at the Daily Comet

 

Expect a busier-than-normal hurricane season, NOAA says

August 9th, 2019 –In an uptick from the preseason forecast, the Atlantic hurricane season now is expected to be above normal, with 10 to 17 named storms, including five to nine hurricanes, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, announced Thursday.

Two to four of those hurricanes are forecast to be Category 3 or stronger, with winds greater than 110 mph, experts said, in line with the May prediction. Hurricane Barry hit Louisiana in July as a Category 1 storm.

“We expect conditions to be more favorable for storm development through the rest of the season,” Gerry Bell, the prediction center’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, told CNN.

The updated forecast was issued just ahead of the start of the most active hurricane period — the roughly eight weeks that surround September 10, when hurricane season hits its statistical peak.

Read the full story at CNN