Saving Seafood

ALASKA: Mediocre Bristol Bay catch offset by soaring sockeye prices

August 31, 2026 — This summer’s Bristol Bay sockeye season concluded with a total catch of 29.3 million to 29.4 million fish as reported at press time, short of the government’s allowable harvest of 32.26 million. The total run reached 44.7 million fish, exceeding the forecast of 44.05 million; although this was 7 million fish above the seasonal average dating back to1963, it was well below the averages for the last decade and especially the record-run filled last five years.

Within these overall numbers, great variation in forecast and harvest results were evident among the reporting districts.

The two “Ns”, Nushagak and Naknek, were well down from the heady highs of recent years. Nushagak’s late opening (June 27) was set to allow a better upriver escapement of Nushagak king salmon, as the Nushagak kings were listed as a “stock of concern” in 2022 owing to declines. But as luck would have it, the sockeye run started early this year; Nushagak’s peak (mid-point) was July 1, meaning many fish came through before the fishery started. And this late opening no doubt played a role in the total catch (a bit over 9 million fish) falling well below the harvest forecast of 14 million. Naknek, meanwhile, saw its smallest run since 1998. However, other districts fared much better.

And at least some fishermen felt the lower catch this year was anticipated, and then higher prices saved the day.

“I was happy with this season’s catch, given the low return,” noted Peter Oswald, skipper of the Williwa, fishing Nushagak and then the Naknek-Kvichak. “A lot of guys were disappointed with their catches, but the lower catch allowed us to focus on catching the highest-quality fish, and the crew did well.

“Prices started out really strong and then got even stronger with the midseason price adjustment,” Oswald added.

Read the full article at the National Fisherman

ALASKA: Preliminary 2027 forecast for Alaska’s Bristol Bay fishery predicts more, smaller sockeye

August 17, 2026 — With the 2026 commercial salmon harvests winding down in Alaska, the seafood industry is already calculating how to navigate at a profit in 2027, given dynamic biological, economic, climate and market conditions.

Their forecast has a far-reaching socio-economic impact across the state — Bristol Bay’s commercial fishery had about $2 billion in economic impact and supported 15,000 jobs in 2019 according to research from the McKinley Research Group.

Data from the University of Washington’s forthcoming preliminary preseason forecast for the celebrated Bristol Bay wild sockeye fishery anticipate a run of 45 million fish next year, up from the 2026 forecast of 41.5 million. But run size is just one of many factors under consideration.

Fish size is one of those factors: 45 million big fish have more meat — and a bigger economic effect — than 45 million smaller fish. The size of the fish also helps determine which products the processors will produce.

“When we get really big returns the fish are smaller for their age, because they are competing for their food,” said salmon researcher Daniel Schindler of the University of Washington School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. “We estimate how many fish of each age class are coming back.”

For 2027 those preliminary indications are for 20 million fish that have spent three years in the ocean — known as three ocean fish — and 30 million fish that have spent two years in the ocean in 2027. Because there are more fish that have spent less time in the ocean, the overall catch will be smaller.

But the climate can affect how much of that forecast becomes a reality.

Read the full article at Alaska Beacon