June 24, 2026 — Fishermen, fisheries managers, and scientists have observed changes in our oceans that are impacting the location and growth of fish stocks. Until recently, there was no reliable way to predict these changes. This year, the 2026 Mid-Atlantic and New England State of the Ecosystem reports contain the first operational seasonal and decadal ocean forecasts for U.S. coastal fisheries regions. These ocean forecasts provide predictions of future marine ecosystem conditions that could impact the availability of commercial, recreational, and protected fisheries species. They can help resource managers make more informed decisions.
The Northeast Integrated Ecosystem Assessment team produces the State of the Ecosystem reports annually for the New England and Mid-Atlantic Fisheries Management Councils. They provide a synthesis of Northeast Shelf ecosystem information. They are part of a holistic approach to maintain healthy and productive fisheries by considering environmental and socioeconomic information in decision making. The reports:
- Contain current and long-term information about the Northeast Shelf ecosystems
- Document how well the ecosystems are currently meeting fishery management objectives
- Highlight potential risks to meeting those objectives.
However, resource managers have long sought forward-looking ocean forecasts that predict future ocean conditions to help them make more informed decisions.
“Due to limited resources, we have moved to more multi-year specifications for stocks, so the impacts of our decisions are now longer lasting. Given the increasingly dynamic nature of the ocean, and management’s sometimes-limited ability to be as dynamic in response, delivery of ocean forecasts to the Council provides more tools at our disposal to make better decisions that span multiple years.” — Megan Ware, member of the New England Fisheries Management Council
NOAA scientists in the Northeast are now providing their Councils with predicted ocean temperatures in this year’s” State of the Ecosystem reports using NOAA’s Modular Ocean Model version 6 ocean forecasts, developed by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The inclusion of the forecasts marks the agency’s first application of an ocean forecast in an ecosystem-based fisheries management product.