August 30, 2018 — Researchers from Japan’s Hokkaido University, the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, and Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) found that harvesting sustainable amounts of seafood globally over the next 75 years can lead to higher total food production and profits, even taking into consideration the fish populations which are projected to decline as the ocean warms and habitats change.
This is because, under what has been determined as the best management scenario, some major fish and shellfish stocks that are commercially harvested, broadly referred to as fisheries, will grow and become more profitable, offsetting the many others projected to shrink or even disappear. On a global average, profitability could rise by 14 billion USD and harvest by 217 million metric tons above today’s levels, according to the study.
There is a catch. In the model, the growth was achieved under the projected moderate warming of 2.2°C (3.9°F) above average global temperatures by 2100. But if temperatures rise further, global fish harvest and profits are expected to decline below today’s levels even with the best management in place.
The researchers say their study, published in Science Advances, conveys an important message: the oceans can continue to be a source of healthy seafood and sustainable livelihoods for billions of people, but only if action is taken to manage the stocks well and limit the carbon emissions that drive climate change.