July 20, 2017 — “The ocean has been over-fished, there are only a few more years of fish out there; and then they will all be gone.”
“There simply are not any more fish in the sea, they have all been taken!”
“The Northeast fishing industry is dead, they have fished themselves out of business.“
These are all common statements one might hear about commercial fishing in the Northeast, although each represents a misunderstanding of the situation. In fact, today these statements are just plain wrong. The Northeast ground fishing industry is in real trouble and has been for some time, which is true. The trouble is not the result of lack of fish. As Fishy Business often points out, the real culprits are poor fishery management by the federal government, incomplete fish stock assessments and bad science.
Be not heavy of heart, there is good news! To start with, there are plenty of fish in the sea. How do we know this? That’s even more good news. Instead of relying on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admiration’s (NOAA) Henry H. Bigelow (FSV 225) to survey the same areas of the ocean each year to create fish stock assessments (known by NOAA as, “Index of Relative Abundance”), more organizations are helping to create usable data and a more complete picture. You see, the Index of Relative Abundance tells us what the number of fish in a specific area are compared to prior years. The increase or decrease in fish counted is then extrapolated to represent the entire region.
This is sort of like polling the same people for every election and predicting the behavior or the entire Commonwealth of Massachusetts without taking other factors into account. What other factors? When it comes to fish stocks they might include; climate change (sea water temperature), mortality change, predatory change (for example, more seals), growth rate change and fraud. Fraud? Yes, one explanation as to why NOAA’s fish stock numbers don’t match reality is said to be because of the actions of Carlos Rafael, the “Codfather”, who notoriously underreported his catch. Carlos will be heading to prison for his misdeeds soon, so perhaps the assessments will become more accurate; don’t hold your breath. In short, the fish stock assessment environment is not optimal; but that is changing.