May 11, 2026 — University of Washington’s Alaska Salmon Program researchers are forecasting a 2026 total Bristol Bay sockeye salmon run of 41.5 million fish, with slightly larger fish than in 2025.
The report, released on Wednesday, May 6, in Seattle, projects that most of the returning sockeye will be fish that spent either two or three winters in the ocean before returning to Bristol Bay to spawn. Researchers expect about 46 percent of the run to be 2-ocean fish and 54 percent to be 3-ocean fish, with average weights ranging from 4.9 to 6.6 pounds.
The forecast is 32 percent below the recent 10-year average of 60.1 million fish, according to data made available in November 2025,
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game in a separate forecast of March 24, projected a run of 45.32 million fish, allowing for a projected harvest of 32.26 million red salmon. That forecast is 26 percent lower than the recent 10-year average, but still 21 percent higher than the long-term average.