February 3, 2024 — Even though the forecast for this year’s salmon production in Alaska is down from last year the harvest, especially sockeye coming out of Bristol Bay, will be headed for markets still flooded with last year’s product.
Overall, values for all species of Alaska salmon are down. The 2023 statewide commercial harvest tallied up to 230.2 million fish, for a 43 percent increase in production over the 167 million fish of 2022. But revenues for 2023 ($398.6 million) came in at roughly half of the $720 million that was generated in 2022.
That inversion of volume over value promises to perplex the industry going into this year’s season.
“I’m hearing that these are some of the worst market conditions in 20 years, 30 years, or even more,” says Greg Smith, communications director with the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, in Juneau. “It’s not just one species; it’s many species, and it’s not just Alaska seafood. It’s domestic seafood, and seafood globally.”
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game prediction for Bristol Bay’s 2024 total sockeye run has been set at 39 million. Given the confidence levels in the modeling, the industry can expect a range of 24 million on the low side of the prediction – and more than 53 million fish in the most optimistic scenario.
Historical records since 2001 show that on the average the department has underestimated runs by 15 percent. Subtract the escapement to the bay’s nine major river systems, and fishermen can expect to harvest in the neighborhood of 25 million sockeyes.
Among the major production districts, run projections for the Naknek-Kvichak have been pegged at 15 million, with the fabled Nushagak set at around 12 million sockeyes and potential harvests at Egegik and Ugashik districts estimated at around 5 million each.
That’s a lot of fish, and though the onslaught of the run lies months away, questions loom of whether there will be a fleet to catch them and enough processing capacity to put them up.