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Ocean heat waves like the Pacific’s deadly ‘Blob’ could become the new normal

February 1, 2019 — When marine biologist Steve Barbeaux first saw the data in late 2017, he thought it was the result of a computer glitch. How else could more than 100 million Pacific cod suddenly vanish from the waters off of southern Alaska?

Within hours, however, Barbeaux’s colleagues at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Seattle, Washington, had confirmed the numbers. No glitch. The data, collected by research trawlers, indicated cod numbers had plunged by 70% in 2 years, essentially erasing a fishery worth $100 million annually. There was no evidence that the fish had simply moved elsewhere. And as the vast scale of the disappearance became clear, a prime suspect emerged: “The Blob.”

In late 2013, a huge patch of unusually warm ocean water, roughly one-third the size of the contiguous United States, formed in the Gulf of Alaska and began to spread. A few months later, Nick Bond, a climate scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle, dubbed it The Blob. The name, with its echo of a 1958 horror film about an alien life form that keeps growing as it consumes everything in its path, quickly caught on. By the summer of 2015, The Blob had more than doubled in size, stretching across more than 4 million square kilometers of ocean, from Mexico’s Baja California Peninsula to Alaska’s Aleutian Islands. Water temperatures reached 2.5°C above normal in many places.

Read the full story at Science Magazine

‘Three-fold competition’ arises for tighter cod supplies as tariffs could invert haddock price gap

January 18, 2019 — According to figures released at the National Fisheries Institute’s Global Seafood Market Conference, world cod supply is expected to decline to 1.5 million metric tons in 2019, down from 1.59 million metric tons in 2018.

Todd Clark, a founder and partner at Endeavor Seafood, an importer and marketer of frozen seafood based in Newport, Rhode Island, said that there’s a downward supply trend in both Atlantic cod, driven by reductions out of the Barents Sea, and Pacific cod, where US supply has fallen somewhat in the Bering Sea and sharply in the Gulf of Alaska.

“There’s a steady decrease in both of these resources, really,” Clark said.

Looking at Atlantic cod supply in historical perspective, the resource, at 1.3 million metric tons in 2017, has fluctuated between a low of under 1 million metric tons in 2007 and a 2.75 million metric ton high seen in 1974.

Read the full story at Undercurrent News

2020 US Pacific cod catch may be lowest since 1983, could drop further

December 18, 2018 — The eastern Bering Sea (EBS) Pacific cod catch could drop again in 2021 and 2022, as scientific forecasts indicate 2020 could see the lowest federal total allowable catch (TAC) since the early-1980s, according to an Undercurrent News analysis of government scientific data.

Data presented in the 2018 stock assessment report from Grant Thompson, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist and an expert on the cod fishery, suggests the TAC will bottom out in 2022 and then increase again. However, new models to be developed in 2019 will include alternative methods of accounting for the increased biomass in the northern Bering Sea (NBS) and could see this bleak outlook improve.

In 2018, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) has indicated the federal TAC in 2020 could be cut to 124,625 metric tons, compared to 166,475t in 2019 and 188,136t this year. The TAC for 2019 has been recommended by NPFMC at the meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, last week, but the 2020 level is only provisional and will be reviewed next year in light of new data. The NPFMC went with Thompson’s number for 2019, not a lower one from a team of scientists who take into account the stock assessment report.

Then, Thompson’s report gives various projections for female spawning biomass and catches through 2030. The first is the most relevant, however, he said.

Read the full story at Undercurrent News

ALASKA: NPFMC advisory panel proposes 33,000t hike in Bering Sea pollock TAC, 7,000t drop in cod

December 7, 2018 — The advisory panel to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) voted in favor of a 33,000-metric-ton increase in the eastern Bering Sea pollock total allowable catch (TAC), as well as a 7,000 drop in the Pacific cod TAC.

This draft TAC sheet will then go to the vote at the NPFMC meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, on Friday. The supply outlook comes with prices for cod and pollock set firm.

According to an Undercurrent News source, the advisory committee is recommending a pollock TAC of 1.397 million metric tons for 2019, up from 1.364m in 2018. The panel also recommended a Pacific cod TAC of 181,000t, down from 188,136t in 2018. For Pacific cod in the Aleutian Islands, the panel voted in favor of a TAC of 20,600t.

Read the full story at Undercurrent News

Bleak outlook for Pacific cod could see 2019 US pollock TAC hike, despite reduced biomass

December 5, 2018 — Although the biomass for pollock in the US eastern Bering Sea fishery is coming down, the total allowable catch (TAC) for 2019 could actually be increased, due to the outlook for further cuts to Pacific cod.

The TACs for pollock and cod, especially in light of the gloomy outlook for the latter, will be a major focus of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, this week, which will go ahead, after an earthquake hit the city last Friday. With whitefish prices set high, the Barents Sea cod and haddock fisheries coming down for 2019 and the Russians only increasing their pollock quota for next year marginally, industry players globally are looking to what happens at the meeting.

First, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists present their views on the outlook for 2019, then the council will decide on TAC levels for pollock, cod, yellowfin sole and other fish. There is uncertainty around pollock and cod moving further north, as previously reported by Undercurrent News. 

Read the full story at Undercurrent News

Largest Pacific cod catchers look to hook investor for fleet renewal, not sell up

October 12, 2018 — Clipper Seafoods and Blue North Fisheries’ shareholders are looking for an investor in a combined business to help finance a renewal of the fleet, but not for anyone to take a majority stake, sources familiar with their thinking told Undercurrent News.

The owners of Clipper and Blue North, the two largest US Pacific cod longline companies, are looking for an investor to come in and take a significant share of a combined company, “even up to 49.9%”, as one put it, but they’re not interested in getting out of the business. Part of the reason for seeking investment is fleet renewal, sources told Undercurrent.

In late August, Undercurrent reported the two had brought in Zachary Scott, a Seattle, Washington-based mergers and acquisitions advisory firm, to advise on a possible sale. Sources said a full sale could be a possible outcome, depending on the price, but it is not the preference of the shareholders, who want to stay involved.

Zachary Scott, which did not respond to a request for comment from Undercurrent, has sent an information memorandum on the combined companies to over 30 trade and investor players, sources said.

Dave Little, the main shareholder in Clipper, and Michael and Patrick Burns, who control Blue North, all pioneers of the longline fishery in Alaska, did not respond to a request for comment from Undercurrent.

Read the full story at Undercurrent News

Bering Sea Pacific cod move north as survey sees fewer fish in east

October 10, 2018 — As was the case recently with pollock in Alaska’s southeastern Bering Sea, US government scientists found a surprising result when they surveyed Pacific cod stocks this summer: a large number of fish apparently moved north.

Staff at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Alaska Fisheries Science Center are in the process of developing stock assessments that the North Pacific Fishery Management Council will use in making allowable biological catch (ABC) and total allowable catch (TAC) levels for Pacific cod in the Bering Sea for 2019.

However, one key input that will figure into the model that NOAA is making to estimate the Pacific cod biomass — the results of the 2018 southeastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey — has declined significantly.

Read the full story at Undercurrent News

NPFMC Separates Adak Cod Issue from Broader Cod Allocation issues, Expects Action by Dec 2018

June 18, 2018 — SEAFOOD NEWS — Management of Pacific Cod in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands is a study in complexity, founded on the earnest principles of protecting historical deliveries to the village of Adak and balancing the needs of the rationalized fishery with the non-rationalized Aleutian Island cod fishery.

Amendment 113 to the BSAI groundfish plan was intended to navigate this warren of concerns, but in the first year of its implementation a perfect storm of sorts resulted in the North Pacific Council asking certain fishing vessels to ‘stand down’ last February to allow other cod deliveries to Adak, while the body set out to correct the regulations.

At their April meeting, the Council created a Purpose and Need statement acknowleding that “changes in fishery participation patterns and total allowable catches in the BSAI, resulted in the fishery progressing in a manner that may have been counter to the intent of providing community protections in the Aleutian Islands.”

The Council went on to state it “intends to modify Amendment 113 such that the prosecution of the BSAI cod fishery aligns with the council’s original objective of addressing the risk that participants in BSAI rationalized fisheries may diminish the historical share of BSAI cod of other industry participants and communities that depend on shoreplant processing in the region.”

Thus the process began for alternatives to consider, analyses of the options, and public comment periods, with resolution now estimated for the 2020 fishing season.

But part of the perfect storm of complexities was another problem — the emergence of the Amendment 80 fleet (BSAI trawlers that mostly target flatfish and other non-pollock species) acting as motherships and taking deliveries that may otherwise have gone, at least in part, to shorebased plants.

Any reference to an imbalance in deliveries to on-shore and off-shore facilities triggers memories of perhaps the most contentious issue the North Pacific Council has ever addressed, the ‘inshore/offshore’ debate that resulted in the American Fisheries Act, which rationalized the BSAI pollock fleet.

The Council decided to treat each problem as a separate one, but asked that the discussion paper include “tradeoffs and benefits of combining this action with the BSAI [catcher vessel] cod action the Council will address in June.”

Action taken at last week’s meeting confirmed that the Adak cod set-aside issue will continue independently of the AM80 mothership issue.

The schedule for resolving Amendment 113 and fixing the Adak cod set-aside is to review the analysis of four alternatives in October with final action tentatively set for December 2018. With public comment periods and regulatory reviews, the final rule’s earliest publication could be late 2019 with implementation in the 2020 cod season.

June’s discussion paper crystalized the complexity of current regulations in the Aleutian Island fishery.  After describing the allocations and limitations for BSAI cod, NPFMC analysts Jon McCracken and Darrell Brannan describe what happened next.

“Participants began to realize that under the current regulations the AI shoreplant would not be able to take deliveries of the entire 5,000 mt AI set-aside after the BSAI trawl CV sector was closed to directed fishing for the A season.

“Prior to that time some participants were under the impression that the AI set-aside essentially guaranteed the shoreplants would be allowed to take delivery of the 5,000 mt AI set-aside if they achieved the 1,000 mt before February 28. However, after February 11 all of the federal Pacific cod CV sectors except jig gear were close for directed fishing in the A season in the BSAI.

“Given that 6,515 mt of Pacific cod was available to trawl CVs to deliver to any processor in the AI, at least two companies made plans to harvest a portion of that allowance and deliver the catch to processors other than the AI shoreplant. One company was using its CV to deliver to one of its C/Ps.

“However, this occurred during the February Council meeting, and when the Council was made aware of the issue it asked this company to not participate in the unrestricted fishery, due to the impacts to the AI shoreplant. This company had already taken a small amount of Pacific cod, but they agreed to stand-down from the fishery at the request of the Council.

“After the 2018 A-season was underway, a second company requested that their CVs be allowed to deliver to the AI shoreplant. In part due to capacity constraints and the timing of the request, the AI shoreplant did not offer a market to those CVs. The company decided later in February to have some of its trawl CVs deliver AI Pacific cod to Dutch Harbor.

“CVs that were delivering to the AI shoreplant are reported to have self-imposed trip limits and a one-day stand-down after a delivery to help reduce wait times at the plant. Trawl CVs set the trip limit at 400,000 lbs. for the larger CVs and 100,000 lbs for smaller CVs. These trip limits were abandoned when NMFS announced the BSAI A season trawl CV closure for March 4, 2018, which resulted in a larger volume of Pacific cod being delivered during a short period of time.

“The shoreplant operator has indicated during testimony to the Council that the shoreplant has a daily capacity of 1.2 million lbs. to 1.5 million lbs. At 1.2 million lbs. per day, the shoreplant could process the AI set-aside in about 9.2 days. During the 2018 A-season, daily processing of GHL and federal Pacific cod combined never exceeded 1 million lbs. and was typically much lower.

“Once trawl CVs harvested an amount that was projected to be equal to the BSAI trawl CV sector A-season allowance22, they were closed to directed fishing on March 11.

“NMFS In-season Management’s ability to close a fishery exactly on the amount a sector’s TAC is limited by variations in daily landings and the fact that closures are announced ahead of time for 12 noon on a specific day.

“Catch in the AI set-aside and unrestricted fishery resulted in the trawl CV sector AI season being closed in the BSAI prior to the entire 5,000 mt AI set-aside being delivered. That meant the only CV sector that remained open25 to directed fishing was the BSAI jig gear sector.

“The BSAI allocation to the jig sector was insufficient to allow the AI shoreplant to take deliveries of the remaining 5,000 mt AI set-aside.

“NMFS announced that the 5,000 mt AI set-aside had not been landed at the AI shoreplant by March 15th. Because the 5,000 mt AI set-aside was not reached by that date the BS non-CDQ trawl CV A-season sector limitation remained in effect until March 21 and the AI set-aside to not apply for the remainder of the year. The amount of the 5,000 mt AI set-aside that was delivered to the AI shoreplant cannot be reported due to confidentiality restrictions.

“The AI shoreplant could report their Pacific cod deliveries or agreed to waive the confidentiality restrictions associated with NMFS or the Council reporting the Pacific cod deliveries they received.

“The BSAI Pacific cod non-CDQ trawl CV B-season opened to directed fishing on April 1. The 2018 B-season allowance was set at 4,425 mt at the start of the fishing year. Directed fishing was closed on April 3 as a result of the B-season allowance being reached. The AI shoreplant took Pacific cod deliveries during the B-season.”

This story originally appeared on SeafoodNews.com, a subscription site. It is reprinted with permission.

Researchers try to understand why Pacific cod stocks are crashing in Gulf of Alaska

May 31, 2018 — On an island about 4 miles off of Kodiak, marine scientists working with the University of Alaska are trying to figure out why Pacific cod stocks are crashing in the Gulf of Alaska.

And, how climate change may be affecting the fish when they’re young.

Mike Litzow and, his wife, Alisa Abookire, try to pull in a beach seine on a soggy gray day on Long Island. But, they catch more seaweed than fish as they slowly sink deeper into the shore’s mud.

“We have to get some kelp out, Liz,” Litzow said. “Oh no, it’s the freaking motherload. This will be our day right here if we aren’t careful.”

This isn’t a normal fishing trip.

The marine scientists are collaborating on a study for the University of Alaska Fairbanks to figure out why Pacific cod stocks are declining in the Gulf of Alaska and how warming waters may be affecting the species when they’re young.

Read the full story at KTOO 

 

Alaska: Salmon harvests, halibut prices take sharp turn down

April 5, 2018 — Alaska is expecting a reduced salmon harvest this year, setting up a trifecta of falling fish revenues for Alaska fishermen, coastal communities and state coffers.

Coming on the heels of an 80 percent crash of cod stocks in the Gulf of Alaska and a 10 percent decline in halibut catches, state fishery managers are projecting a 2018 salmon harvest at 149 million fish, down 34 percent from last season.

The shortfall stems from lower forecasts for returning pink salmon. The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is forecasting a humpie harvest of just 70 million fish, down by more than half from last summer.

For sockeye salmon, a statewide catch of about 52 million is down 1.8 million fish from 2017, which was the fifth-largest red salmon harvest since 1970.

By far, most of the sockeyes will come from Bristol Bay’s nine river systems where a projected harvest of 37.5 million would be down by more than a million, but still well above the 10- and 20-year averages for the Bay.

Alaska’s chum salmon catch last year of 25 million also was the largest haul since 1970. This year’s statewide catch is expected to produce 21 million chums, down by nearly four million.

Read the full story at the Alaska Journal of Commerce

 

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