Saving Seafood

New Seasonal Forecast Predicts Cooler Waters in Northeast

June 4, 2025 — Deep waters in the Gulf of Maine and the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelfbreak region are expected to remain cooler than in recent years. This prediction, a product of NOAA’s Changing Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative, is from the first experimental seasonal ocean outlook released by NOAA scientists in April. It is a shift from previous patterns: From 2004 to 2013, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Maine warmed faster than anywhere else in the world.

Fisheries Data Supports Forecast

Conditions at the bottom of the ocean along much of the Northeast U.S. coast have been colder than normal in the first few months of 2025. Data collected in March 2025 by several surveys and the eMOLT program, a partnership between commercial fishermen and NOAA, showed:

  • Bottom temperatures across much of the Gulf of Maine that were 0.5–2.0 °C (0.9–3.6 °F) below normal for March, though a few locations reported slightly warmer than normal conditions
  • Cooler than normal conditions all along the edge of Georges Bank and deep along the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf break and slope
  • Patches of near to slightly above normal temperatures inshore around Long Island

The first experimental outlook was produced by an advanced integration of NOAA Research’s global seasonal forecast model with a newly developed high-resolution numerical ocean model. The outlook predicts that many of these patterns of above and below normal bottom temperatures will persist into the summer:

  • Continued cold is predicted in the deep Gulf of Maine, while some shallow nearshore regions may see moderately above normal temperatures
  • Colder than normal conditions are also forecast to persist deep along the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelf break and slope, but warmer than normal conditions are predicted to develop in much of the shallower Mid-Atlantic Bight
  • Near the surface, moderately warmer than normal conditions (about 1 °C or 2 °F above average) are predicted throughout most of the region

Since releasing the outlook, NOAA scientists have continued monitoring conditions in the Northeast. Consistent with the forecast and data collected in March and April 2025, they are seeing cooler than normal bottom temperatures.

Are these changes part of a longer term shift?

The recent persistence of cooler than usual conditions in the Gulf of Maine is a marked departure from the last two decades. From 2004 to 2013, the Gulf of Maine sea surface temperature warmed faster than virtually anywhere else in the world. Strong marine heatwaves, or extended periods of substantially warmer than normal conditions, were observed in 2012 and 2016. This abrupt warming had impacts on a number of important fisheries, including cod and lobster.

NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory conducted experimental model predictions of the next 10 years in 2023. They suggest that the warming will pause over the next decade, with the temperature trend at the surface remaining flat or slightly cooling. In the model, this pause in the warming trend is associated with slow variability in the ocean and atmosphere that takes place over several years. This will ultimately result in a temporary southward displacement of the warm Gulf Stream current, which allows colder water into the Northeast U.S. region.

The cool water observed this winter and spring, its predicted continuation at depth this summer, and several cool pulses observed in 2024 point to this prediction being accurate so far. However, several additional years of data will be needed to confirm whether the warming trend has paused as predicted.

These ocean outlooks are based on advanced numerical models developed by NOAA Research. The Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR) model was developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. It predicts how the ocean, atmosphere, land, and sea ice across the planet will evolve over the next 1 to 10 years. Through a process known as downscaling, predictions from the SPEAR global model are then fed into a much higher resolution regional model, built with NOAA’s Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6). This high-resolution model also simulates coastal tides, plankton, and ocean chemistry.

Preparing for Changing Ecosystems and Fisheries

We will update the seasonal outlook for the U.S. East Coast—which includes the Caribbean and the Gulf of America (formerly the Gulf of Mexico)—every 3 months. We will also continue to regularly update our 10-year forecasts. Combined, these forecasts will provide actionable information about potential near-future ocean conditions. Coastal communities, industries, and resource managers can use this information to reduce the impacts of ocean changes.

Scientists at NOAA Fisheries are working closely with NOAA Research and university partners to understand how these predictions can be best incorporated into marine resource management. Changes such as the cooling of deep bottom waters are expected to be particularly impactful for groundfish species, such as cod and haddock, which live on or near the deep sea floor.

Read the full article at NOAA Fisheries 

NOAA Fisheries intercepted illegal tuna shipment destined for US grocery chain

June 3, 2025 — NOAA Fisheries has fined a U.S. grocery chain USD 12,516 (EUR 10,961) for illegally importing yellowfin tuna.

According to the agency, NOAA Fisheries’ Office of Law Enforcement collaborated with Virginia Conservation Police and U.S. Customs and Border Protection on a joint inspection of a container shipment at the Centralized Examination Station in Chesapeake, Virginia, U.S.A. Inside, law enforcement found more than 1,100 pounds of jarred yellowfin tuna with a declared value of USD 4,889 (EUR 4,281) destined for a grocery store chain.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

NOAA’s Office of Law Enforcement Foils Crab Trafficking Plot in Alaska

May 30, 2025 — NOAA Fisheries Office of Law Enforcement led an investigation that resulted in a Kodiak fisherman being sentenced to prison for illegally trafficking diseased crab from Alaska to Washington. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Alaska handled the successful prosecution. On May 13, Corey Potter was sentenced to 1 year in prison and 2 years of supervised release. The sentence also included a worldwide ban on any commercial fishing for the duration of the term of his supervised release. Potter pleaded guilty to two felony counts of violating the Lacey Act in February.

In early March 2024, based on information from the Alaska Wildlife Troopers, NOAA Office of Law Enforcement initiated an investigation into two Alaska crab catcher vessels. They were allegedly transporting catch out of Alaska without first properly landing the crab in the state as required by law. Corey Potter was the owner and operator of the crab catcher vessels F/V Gambler and F/V Arctic Dawn. The investigation revealed that he directed the vessels’ captains and operators, Kyle Potter and Justin Welch, to transport live crab harvested in Alaska through Canadian waters to Seattle, where they planned to fetch higher prices for the sales. The F/V Arctic Dawn had more than 4,200 pounds of live Tanner crab on board, and the F/V Gambler held more than 2,900 pounds of live golden king crab.

Several crab fishermen expressed concern to Corey and Kyle Potter regarding their plan to transport the crab out of Alaska due to Bitter Crab Syndrome. The syndrome is a fatal parasitic disease impacting crustaceans. The fishermen cautioned that infected crab could harm the fishery’s reputation and, consequently, the market for Alaskan crab. Regardless, the captains unlawfully departed Alaska without landing the crab or submitting completed reports, in violation of Alaska law. They were fully aware that some of the Tanner crab were almost certainly infected. We tracked the vessels from Alaska to Washington, interdicted them at the dock in Seattle, and seized the catch. We collaborated with the Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife Police, who offloaded the Tanner crab and disposed of them securely. Approximately 42 percent of the king crab were dead prior to landing and therefore unmarketable.

Co-defendant Welch pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Lacey Act and was sentenced on June 25, 2024, to 3 years’ probation, and a $10,000 fine. Co-defendant Kyle Potter pleaded guilty to one count of violating the Lacey Act. He was sentenced on July 10, 2024, to 5 years’ probation, including a 5-year worldwide ban on any commercial fishing and a $20,000 fine.

“The sustainability of Alaska’s fisheries depends on honest fishermen, strong statutory oversight, and industry members who engage in fair business practices,” said Benjamin Cheeseman, Assistant Director, NOAA’s Office of Law Enforcement, Alaska Division. “These sentences serve to protect lawful stakeholders into the future, by sending a clear message to would-be offenders. We remain committed to holding violators accountable and safeguarding Alaska’s fisheries for future generations.”

NOAA Fisheries enforces statutes pertaining to seafood and federal fisheries. We work diligently to ensure compliance with these laws and take swift action when violations occur. We are committed to pursuing violators across state boundaries and international borders.

Read the full article at NOAA Fisheries

NOAA ocean outlook projects cooler deep waters for Gulf of Maine

May 28, 2025 — The following was released by NOAA Fisheries:

The Gulf of Maine, historically one of the fastest-warming ocean regions in the world, is predicted to experience cooler bottom water temperatures this spring and summer, according to a new experimental outlook developed by NOAA scientists.

Initial signs of this shift were reported by NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center and documented in the NOAA Fisheries 2025 New England State of the Ecosystem Report.

Data shows that since late 2023, the Northwest Atlantic has seen cooler bottom-water temperatures due to the southward movement of the eastern portion of the Gulf Stream and possibly an increased influx of Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf water into the system. Researchers expect the Gulf of Maine to be 0.9-1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5-1 degree Celsius) cooler this summer compared to the average summer temperature.

“The cooling trend from the Labrador Shelf region is significant and could have important effects on local marine ecosystems and fisheries,” said Vincent Saba, a research fishery biologist at NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center.

Bottom-water temperatures influence the productivity of groundfish, like cod, haddock, pollock, and several species of flounder, which prefer cooler water. Lobster, the most valuable fishery in the northeast, are also temperature-sensitive. Warming waters along the New England coast in recent decades have contributed to the collapse of the southern New England lobster population while the Gulf of Maine population has boomed. Researchers expect that cooler waters will impact this economically and culturally important species.

The commercial fishing industry in New England is a major economic driver, contributing $1.4 billion in revenue to the regional economy in 2022 and supporting over 280,000 jobs. The industry also has a significant socioeconomic impact on coastal communities.

A companion longer-term outlook, also developed by NOAA scientists, suggests that more frequent inflows of cooler deep waters may continue to temper warming in the basin for the next several years. Continued monitoring is needed to confirm this prediction.

“This is the first product to offer high-resolution predictive information on ocean conditions at near-term time scales for the full East Coast of the U.S.,” said Katherine Mills, Senior Scientist at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute. “Species in the groundfish complex—like cod, haddock and winter flounder—are more productive when water temperatures are cooler. This information can be used to anticipate where and when certain marine species might be available and help commercial harvesters and supply chain businesses more effectively plan their operations.”

This seasonal outlook was developed under the Changing Ecosystems and Fisheries Initiative (CEFI) by scientists across NOAA Research and Fisheries, with input from the National Ocean Service, National Environmental Satellite and Data Information Service and the National Weather Service.

The outlook is based on two models developed by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The first is SPEAR, the “Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research”, which provides large-scale predictions for the ocean, atmosphere and land. The SPEAR output is then fed into a higher-resolution regional model, built with the Modular Ocean Model version 6 (MOM6), to simulate ecosystem changes in the coastal regions.

Working in tandem, the two models generate ocean predictions for a wide region along the U.S. East Coast, from the Gulf of Maine through the Southeast U.S. and into the Caribbean Islands  that are home to economically important fisheries and protected species. The outlook for the Southeast U.S. and Caribbean regions predicts moderately above-normal surface temperatures through this spring and summer.

Through CEFI, NOAA Research is building out experimental regional ocean prediction systems for all U.S. coastal regions and the Great Lakes that will include information on ocean chemistry (acidity, oxygen) and plankton populations. The regional configurations all rely on NOAA’s global prediction systems for large-scale information while enabling finer resolution of local features critical for fisheries and coastal communities.

“These outlooks help us communicate these predicted changes, allowing the fishing industry and coastal communities to prepare and respond effectively,” Saba said.

Trump’s plan to merge ESA offices could be a hard sell

May 7, 2025 — Businessman Howard Lutnick provided a seemingly straightforward answer when a Democratic senator asked him earlier this year whether he was considering moving NOAA Fisheries out of NOAA.

“No,” Lutnick said.

Strictly speaking, Lutnick’s written answer to a question posed by Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) still holds up. Since his confirmation as Commerce secretary, Lutnick has not proposed a wholesale relocation of NOAA Fisheries.

But as part of its new fiscal 2026 budget proposal, the Trump administration revived a proposal to move to the Interior Department the NOAA Fisheries office that handles Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act issues.

The partial merger has been floated before, but it’s never gone very far. If the Trump administration is serious about pursuing the idea now, it will confront entrenched bureaucracies, congressional turf conflicts and a lot of very serious questions, former officials and advocacy organization leaders predict.

“It seems consolidating ESA functions would make sense to ensure consistent application of the law,” said Greg Sheehan, former FWS deputy director in the first Trump administration.

Read the full story at E&E News

Washington State River Restoration Project to Revive Salmon Habitat, Support Local Jobs

May 7, 2025 — This spring, NOAA partner the Lower Columbia Estuary Partnership broke ground on a large-scale salmon habitat restoration project on the lower East Fork Lewis River in Washington State. This project will support the recovery of threatened steelhead and salmon on one of the few undammed rivers in the Lower Columbia River watershed. It will also inject millions into the local economy and generate hundreds local jobs in construction, heavy equipment operations, trucking, engineering, forestry, and other industries.

In addition, the work will help maintain fishing opportunities that further contribute to the local economy.

Flooding Destroys Habitat

In 1996, Steve Manlow, Executive Director of the Lower Columbia Fish Recovery Board, watched in horror as a 500-year flood event destroyed crucial salmon and steelhead habitat on the lower East Fork Lewis River. Flood waters breached the levees around nine abandoned gravel mining pits, fundamentally shifting the river’s course.

This once-braided, multi-channel river began flowing through the excavated pits. It formed a series of interconnected warm-water ponds that prevent salmon and steelhead from migrating upstream for much of the year. The river channel deepened, cutting off floodplain habitat and causing severe erosion downstream.

Read the full story at NOAA Fisheries

Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan criticizes Trump administration for not enabling fisheries surveys

May 6, 2025 — U.S. Senator Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) has issued a rebuke to the Trump administration, warning that the federal government is not conducting the surveys necessary to manage the nation’s commercial fisheries.

“The federal government has to do two things: they need to do robust surveys for accurate stock assessments and timely regulations to open fisheries. That is it. When the federal government does not do that, you screw hard-working fishermen,” Sullivan said. “To be honest, right now, it is not looking good, and I am getting really upset.”

Read the full story at SeafoodSource

 

More than a quarter of staff gone at NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center

May 5, 2025 — The Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC)—a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with an office in Woods Hole—has seen a 27 percent reduction in staff since President Donald Trump took office, according to current and former NOAA employees, who asked not to be named in this story for fear of retaliation.

In addition to the lab in Woods Hole, the NEFSC has four other offices—one each in Rhode Island, New Jersey, Connecticut and Maine. It is not yet clear how many of the departed staff worked in Woods Hole, which is described on the NOAA Fisheries website as the “focal point for the Northeast Fisheries Science Center’s operations, management and information needs.”

The 27 percent reduction in staff includes people who took early retirement or voluntary separations. It also includes individuals who were let go as “probationary” employees—new hires or employees who have moved into a new role.

NOAA declined to comment, citing a policy at the agency not to discuss internal personnel matters. This reduction in staff comes as part of the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce federal spending.

Read the full story at Maine Public

Could planned federal funding cuts jeopardize Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay restoration plans?

April 28, 2025 — The Trump administration’s plans to propose budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) could jeopardize efforts to restore the health of Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay, according to the Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF).

According to the CBF, the administration’s potential budget cuts would slash NOAA’s total budget by $1.7 billion, from $6.1 billion to $4.5 billion. It would also reduce funding for the National Marine Fisheries Service by approximately 30 percent.

How would the cuts affect the Chesapeake Bay?

The proposed budget plan would significantly reduce NOAA’s financial support and scientific leadership for Chesapeake Bay restoration efforts.

Under the plan, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), which currently operates with a budget of $1.1 billion, would be reduced to $789.3 million in fiscal year 2026 under the planned budget.

The NMFS houses NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Office, which leads science initiatives across the region and works closely with the EPA’s Chesapeake Bay Program on restoration efforts, according to the CBF.

Read the full story at CBS News

Aquaculture projects face years of permitting despite Trump’s efforts

April 27, 2025 — Permitting is a costly regulatory hurdle among many U.S. industries with money, time, opportunity and business are all lost to the cumbersome grind of securing the government’s approval.

Consider the seafood industry, which President Donald Trump just threw a life-jacket.

Despite the United States controlling over four million square miles of prime fishing grounds, nearly 90% of seafood consumed domestically is imported, contributing to a trade deficit exceeding $20 billion, according to the executive order.

At the POWERS Summit and Expo hosted by the American Association of Port Authorities, U.S. Maritime Administrator Ann Phillips addressed the financial and operational challenges posed by inconsistent federal permitting processes for aquaculture facilities.

She highlighted that varying enforcement practices by the National Marine Fisheries Service under the Endangered Species Act have led to unpredictability and increased costs for aquaculture operators.

Read the full story at The Center Square