Saving Seafood

Human Impacts on Ocean Could Double or Triple by 2050, a New UC Santa Barbara Study Warns

September 26, 2025 — By 2050, the combined impacts of climate change and human activity on the ocean could be two to three times greater than they are today. Without urgent efforts to reduce these threats, a new study from the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis—an independent research affiliate of the University of California, Santa Barbara—warns those forces could completely transform, or even wipe out, entire seascapes.

“Huge parts of the ocean will no longer be recognizable,” said Ben Halpern, lead author of the study and the research center’s director. “There are areas that will effectively just collapse and cease to be functioning as natural systems.”

For more than 20 years, Halpern, a marine ecologist, has been charting the ways humans are reshaping coastlines and oceans. In 2008, he produced one of the first global maps to pinpoint where marine ecosystems were under the most stress at the time. Since then, he said, he has emphasized the need to look ahead and project how global warming, along with other human-driven pressures, like industrial fishing, shipping, land-based agriculture and coastal development, are likely to intensify and converge.

Read the full article at Inside Climate News

ALASKA: Study pinpoints trend toward fisheries specialization

May 10, 2019 — Commercial fishermen in Alaska have gotten older in the past three decades. As it turns out, they’ve become more specialized, too.

Fewer permits overall are in the water; between the early 1990s and 2014, commercial fishing permits in Alaska decreased by 25 percent. On top of that, fewer individual fishermen are moving between fisheries.

From 1988-2014, the number of individuals holding multiple permits declined from 30 percent to 20 percent, according to a study published in the journal Fish and Fisheries.

The bottom line: fishermen are increasingly putting all their economic eggs into one basket, and that makes them more vulnerable to the ups and downs of fishing.

The study was born out of a workgroup that met through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis at the University of California Santa Barbara, said co-author Anne Beaudreau, an associate professor of fisheries at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

The original intent was to study the long-term effects of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, but the data on fisheries specialization arose out of that work, she said.

“As we worked on this, we realized there are so many things that have caused long-term changes in the Gulf of Alaska; in the fisheries, it’s really hard to see the long-term effects of the oil spill,” she said. “A lot of the focus of the working group was on the biological effects … this paper sort of came out of the end of that.”

Read the full story at the Alaska Journal of Commerce

Global fisheries could still become more profitable despite global warming

August 30, 2018 — Researchers from Japan’s Hokkaido University, the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB), National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, and Environmental Defense Fund  (EDF) found that harvesting sustainable amounts of seafood globally over the next 75 years can lead to higher total food production and profits, even taking into consideration the fish populations which are projected to decline as the ocean warms and habitats change.

This is because, under what has been determined as the best management scenario, some major fish and shellfish stocks that are commercially harvested, broadly referred to as fisheries, will grow and become more profitable, offsetting the many others projected to shrink or even disappear. On a global average, profitability could rise by 14 billion USD and harvest by 217 million metric tons above today’s levels, according to the study.

There is a catch. In the model, the growth was achieved under the projected moderate warming of 2.2°C (3.9°F) above average global temperatures by 2100. But if temperatures rise further, global fish harvest and profits are expected to decline below today’s levels even with the best management in place.

The researchers say their study, published in Science Advances, conveys an important message: the oceans can continue to be a source of healthy seafood and sustainable livelihoods for billions of people, but only if action is taken to manage the stocks well and limit the carbon emissions that drive climate change.

Read the full story at Science Daily