May 29, 2020 — The following was released by NOAA Fisheries:
Variation in the productivity and sustainability of fish resources is determined, in part, by large changes in juvenile fish production from year to year. This is defined as “recruitment.” Fisheries oceanographers and fish stock assessment scientists have been trying to better understand and predict this variation for more than 100 years.
“We are seeing a lot of changes in the Bering Sea ecosystem. With analytical tools like this, we should be able to quickly identify factors affecting juvenile fish survival in a given year to generate reliable estimates of future productivity. This may help resource managers to more effectively target their management efforts,” said Jim Thorson, Habitat Ecological Processes Research Program Lead, Alaska Fisheries Science Center and lead author for the paper.
For the first time, scientists glimpsed how ocean temperature in different parts of Alaska’s Bering Sea may have influenced juvenile fish survival over the past three decades. They also gained valuable insights into how it may be affected under warmer ocean conditions in the future.
This unique approach combines oceanographic data collected from research surveys (1982-2018) with recruitment data into a single model. It also incorporated end-of-century projections of bottom and sea surface temperatures for the eastern Bering Sea. Scientists then used global climate models to develop regional-scale projections.
The authors see this an important step to understand the complex relationship between fish stock production and long-term climate processes. The ongoing collection of biological and environmental data will help to further improve these predictions.