September 17, 2026 — The following is an excerpt from an op-ed published today in the Richmond Times Dispatch by Jason Joyce, director of advocacy for the New England Fishermen’s Stewardship Association:

As a commercial fisherman from Maine, I was troubled by the Washington Post’s article about menhaden and starving osprey chicks in the Chesapeake Bay. It presents a simple story: commercial fishermen catch menhaden, osprey lose their food, and chicks starve. It is compelling. It just is not what the science proves.

The Chesapeake Bay osprey study found that osprey nesting in high-salinity areas are struggling, while birds in low-salinity areas are successfully raising young. But the researchers did not show that commercial fishing depleted adult menhaden at the study sites. The authors acknowledge that there is no independent survey measuring adult menhaden abundance in the Chesapeake Bay, and that they lack the data needed to determine the relationship between harvest and menhaden availability. That is a critical gap before fishermen are blamed, and their livelihoods are restricted.

Ospreys are opportunistic predators. They do not only eat menhaden. The study reports that osprey in low-salinity areas relied primarily on catfish and gizzard shad. Those birds produced more than 1.3 young per pair, while high-salinity sites produced only 0.08 to 0.90 young per pair. In plain English, the osprey successfully raising chicks lived where menhaden were not their primary food. Menhaden matter, but osprey reproduction depends on a broader food web than the article suggests.

Salinity may be the largest unanswered question. The study found a strong association between salinity and reproductive success, but classified sites using the average surface salinity from 1985 through 2018, rather than conditions measured during each nesting season. A 33-year average cannot tell us what changed between successful years in the 1980s and 2024. Was there less rainfall or freshwater discharge, more drought, warmer water, lower dissolved oxygen, poorer water quality, different plankton conditions or fewer alternative prey fish?

The researchers identify plankton, freshwater discharge, predation, competition, temperature, salinity and water quality as possible influences on menhaden and the Bay’s food web. Those variables cannot be acknowledged and then ignored when policy is proposed.

Menhaden are highly migratory. Their abundance in one place cannot establish the condition of the coastwide population. Fishermen throughout Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts report extraordinary concentrations, with many describing abundances not seen in decades. That does not prove why fewer menhaden may be available to Chesapeake osprey, but it is consistent with redistribution rather than coastwide depletion.

Read the full opinion piece at the Richmond-Times Dispatch