SEAFOOD.COM NEWS [Japan Reports] Tokyo – June 6, 2011 — The impact of the earthquake holds the key to the course of sales of frozen scallops this season; China is stepping up buying from U.S., Latin America in fear that supply from Japan may decrease
(The following is a summary of the analysis presented by Mr. Takashi Kato, a high-ranking official of the Hokkaido Fisheries Federation, at a recent meeting of major scallop dealers in Japan.)
This article is reproduced with permission from Seafood News, a subscription website.
Production of scallops in Hokkaido — catch from both wild and farming combined – this season is expected to total 379,000 tons, which will be about 30,000 tons less than the 411,000 tons produced in the previous season.
The decrease is primarily ascribed to the projected decline of about 30,000 tons in landings from the Okhotsk Sea.
Production in the Tohoku region, northern part of Japan's main island (mainly Aomori Prefecture), is estimated to drop by half to about 40,000 from 85,000 tons last year.
Overseas, on the other hand, production in the United States is projected to be up.
Out of a concern that Japanese-produced scallops might not be distributed in the overseas markets in the aftermath of the nuclear power plant accident, China, a major scallop consumer, is reportedly stepping up procurement of scallops from the U.S. and South American countries in a bid to offset the expected shortfall.
With respect to frozen scallops, there is now a conspicuous supply shortage overseas, and there seem to be likelihood prices will decline.
The scallop yield in the Okhotsk Sea is expected to decline from the previous season, due to declining production yields for two consecutive years and a trend toward smaller sized scallops. However, from around mid-March, yields seem to be improving to some extent.
Taking this favorable factor into consideration, production of frozen scallop muscle from the Okhotsk Sea this season is estimated at 20,000 tons, which is more or less the same level as the preceding year.
Production in Tohoku is forecast at 500 tons, although the performance in the main fishing ground in the Mutsu Bay in Aomori Prefecture is still uncertain.
Combining the above volume with the actual stockpile of 1,600 tons at the start of the season, overall supply of frozen scallops in Japan for this season will come to 22,000 tons.
Japan's supply of scallops last year stood at 20,300 tons, about 17,300 tons of which went for domestic consumption and 3,000 tons for exports.
The focal point for this season is the consequences of the impact of the earthquake and tsunamis that extensively affected scallop farming facilities along the Pacific coast of northern Japan in March.
Another matter of concern is the uncertain outlook for the settlement of the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant triggered by the disaster.
Furthermore, there is a concern that electric power shortages could be implemented this summer in the Kanto area, a major consuming region centering around Tokyo.
On this assumption, some mass retailers are reportedly considering shrinking the percentage of dealing of frozen scallop products to 70% of last year while increasing that of salted and dried products to 130%.
Marketers also foresee scallop sales for business use might face an uphill battle because restaurants will shorten their business hours and consumers may refrain from eating out partly due to the power saving campaign.
Based on this situation, industry sources estimate that market digestion of 20,000 tons will be necessary, taking into account that 2,000 tons will be set aside as the stockpile for next season.
Assuming that domestic consumption this year is 15,600 tons, which is 90% of consumption last year, market watchers believe that about 4,000-5,000 tons will have to be allocated for exports.
With respect to boiled scallops, landings in the area near the Funka Bay in Hokkaido, are projected at 53,000 tons. This will represent a drop of 65% from about 80,000 tons last season.
Under the circumstance, production of boiled scallops this season will most probably fall to around 10,000 tons — i.e. 70% of last year's 13,500 tons. Along with the decrease in supply, the product prices are expected to be raised by about 20%.
Read this story from Seafood News.