July 22, 2024 — Global fish catches are likely to plunge if the planet warms by just a few degrees, according to one of the most comprehensive attempts to model this understudied topic.
The projections are based on the quantity of fish in the sea, rather than focusing on catches. But the finding raises serious concerns for commercial fishers and coastal communities who rely on fish to feed themselves and their families.
Nearly 50 countries and territories face a reduction of 30% or more in their exploitable fish if warming reaches 3 to 4C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to a report launched by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) last week.
Holding warming to 1.5 to 2C by achieving net-zero emissions around 2050 would stabilize losses to less than 10% for most countries and territories.
If every nation achieves its climate action targets, the world would still be on track for a global average temperature rise of 2.5 to 2.9C, according to a UN report from 2023.
The FAO research lead, Julia Blanchard, says fishers with effective management could adapt to likely losses under the 1.5-2C low-emissions scenario. But it would become “quite frightening” with the 3-4C high-emissions scenario.
Blanchard hopes her latest work will build an even stronger case for cutting emissions when policymakers update their climate action plans and targets, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Nations are due to revise their NDCs by early 2025 under the Paris Agreement.