Total Allowable Catch Archives

New analysis: No, scientists didn’t “recommend” a 54% menhaden cut

December 3, 2025 — The following was released by the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition:

In the weeks since the 2025 ASMFC Annual Meeting, there’s been a widespread misconception circulated by environmental and recreational fishing groups that the ASMFC Menhaden Board’s technical and scientific advisors “recommended” a 50% or 54% cut (to 108,450 mt) to the Atlantic menhaden total allowable catch (TAC), and that the Commission ignored those recommendations. That is not the case. Rather, scientists ran a set of “if–then” scenarios for managers, without making a preferred TAC recommendation. The Technical Committee and the ERP Working Group supply projections and risk information; the commissioners decide policy.

The Menhaden Fisheries Coalition has undertaken a detailed analysis and thorough review of all the meeting materials and reports, and of the entire recording of the meeting available online. It shows there is nowhere the Technical Committee (TC) or the ERP Working Group “recommends” a 54% cut, or any specific TAC. Staff consistently present options and risks at the Board’s request, not a recommendation.

The only time a 54% cut is presented as a recommendation is when Commissioner Proxy Matt Gates (CT) incorrectly described the option provided at the Board’s request as a recommendation. His motion reads: “I would like to make the motion for the TAC recommended in the TC and working groups memo that achieves a 50% probability of achieving the ecological reference point F target… move to set the TAC… at 108,450 metric tons….”

What the record shows (brief)

No staff “recommendation” for 54%. Technical staff presented options and risk probabilities at the Board’s request; they did not tell the Board which TAC to choose. The sole place a “recommendation” is claimed is the Gates motion quoted above. The staff materials do not recommend that TAC; they simply show it as one scenario.
Why 2025 numbers differ from 2022. The 2025 update uses a lower natural-mortality (M) estimate, which re-scales the entire 1955–present series (average biomass ≈ 37% lower vs. 2022). That’s a model re-interpretation, not a stock crash, total biomass is slightly higher than in 2021.
Considering economics is required. Section 6(a) of ASMFC’s ISFMP Charter: “Social and economic impacts and benefits must be taken into account.” The Board did exactly that.
The chosen 20% TAC reduction is biologically conservative.Projections show 0% probability of exceeding the ERP F-threshold (no overfishing) in 2026–2028, and only 2–4% risk of dipping below the fecundity threshold, nearly indistinguishable from a ~54% cut on that metric.
Threshold vs. target, in plain terms. The threshold is the do-not-cross line that ensures enough menhaden for today’s predators. The targetassumes a future in which striped bass are rebuilt and fished at their own F-target. That’s not today’s world, striped bass are overfished and being rebuilt at lower F.
Cutting menhaden alone can’t rebuild stripers. As Dr. Katie Drew told the Board (Feb. 2020): “you have to adjust all of them at once… if you don’t adjust the striped bass fishing mortality nothing you do to menhaden will bring that population back… we need to adjust both of them together.”

Read the full analysis here

Examples of the inaccurate “recommendation” narrative (links)

The American Sportfishing Association (ASA), in an article by Rob Shane titled Mixed Results from 2025 ASMFC Annual Meeting, states that “recent peer-reviewed science recommended a 54% quota cut” for Atlantic menhaden. (https://asafishing.org/advocacy/the-sportfishing-advocate/mixed-results-from-2025-asmfc/)
The National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA) press release Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Annual Meeting Ends with Mixed Results for Recreational Anglers similarly says the Board implemented only a 20 percent reduction “despite peer-reviewed research recommending a 54% cut to the commercial quota.” (https://www.nmma.org/press/article/25298)
The Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership has repeatedly asserted that “slashing the coastwide catch limit by more than half” or “more than 50 percent” is needed to follow the science in Menhaden Stock Assessment Indicates Catch Must Be Reduced to Benefit Striped Bass and again in Marine Fisheries Board Declines to Make Science-Based Reduction to Atlantic Menhaden Catch Limit. (https://www.trcp.org/2025/10/15/menhaden-stock-assessment-indicates-catch-must-be-reduced-to-benefit-striped-bass/; https://www.trcp.org/2025/10/28/marine-fisheries-board-declines-to-make-science-based-reduction-to-atlantic-menhaden-catch-limit/)
The American Saltwater Guides Association went further, urging “massive reductions” and telling readers that “the bottom line is we need a 55% reduction in the TAC for Atlantic menhaden” in Take The Cut: Massive Reductions for Menhaden Industry Necessary. (https://www.saltwaterguidesassociation.com/take-the-cut-massive-reductions-for-menhaden-industry-necessary/)
The Chesapeake Bay Foundation, in a press release by Vanessa Remmers titled Menhaden Management Meeting Results in Lackluster Coastwide Catch Reductions, told supporters that “The ASMFC menhaden stock assessments resulted in forecasts indicating the need for a 54 percent cut to the menhaden harvest to meet the needs of predators like striped bass, osprey, and marine mammals.” (https://www.cbf.org/news/menhaden-management-meeting-results-in-lackluster-coastwide-catch-reductions/)
Jim McDuffie, President and CEO of Bonefish and Tarpon Trust, in a press statement said: “While today’s vote resulted in a 20% reduction, it was far short of the reduction recommended by the Commission’s own scientists.” (https://stateportpilot.com/sports/article_24fe9863-7157-46f7-b8e0-a7327a3b2c8d.html)
The International Game Fish Association inaccurately stated in a press release that “scientists said that a quota of 108,000 MT was necessary to have a 50% chance of success of rebuilding the striped bass fishery.” (https://igfa.org/2025/10/29/fisheries-managers-fail-to-protect-menhaden-and-striped-bass/)
Sport Fishing magazine amplified the same narrative, reporting that ASMFC “implemented a 20 percent cut to the Atlantic commercial menhaden harvest, when peer-reviewed science recommended a 54 percent quota cut, according to an ASA press release” in Nick Carter’s Anglers Frustrated with Menhaden Management. (https://www.sportfishingmag.com/news/anglers-frustrated-with-menhaden-management/)
A Washington Post guest essay, It’s the ‘most important fish in the sea.’ And it’s disappearing. by Mark Robichaux, framed the controversy around the idea that managers failed to adopt the deep cuts “scientists recommend” (Nov. 20, 2025). (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/11/20/menhaden-fishing-caps-atlantic-reduction/)

About the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition
The Menhaden Fisheries Coalition (MFC) is a collective of menhaden fishermen, related businesses, and supporting industries. Comprised of businesses along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition conducts media and public outreach on behalf of the menhaden industry to ensure that members of the public, media, and government are informed of important issues, events, and facts about the fishery.

ALASKA: NPFMC poised to roll over halibut, crab bycatch limits for 2026/27 in December

November 26, 2025 — Each December the North Pacific Fishery Management Council sets the Total Allowable Catches (TACs) for all groundfish species in federal waters of the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska for two years. Those waters – from three to 200 miles out – provide over 60% of Alaska’s total fishery landings.

This massive range covers approximately 900,000 square miles and includes over 140 fish and crab species through six different Fishery Management Plans (FMPs).

The value of the combined groundfish fisheries tops $2 billion annually at first wholesale (the value after primary processing). Of that, nearly 75% leaves the state of Alaska and goes primarily to Seattle.

The North Pacific Council also sets the rates of bycatch that go along with all those groundfish catches.

Bering Sea trawl bycatch tops the allowed takes of snow crab and Tanner crab for fishermen

Crab bycatch numbers are indicated as individual animals by fishery managers, but to make things more confusing, crab catches by fishermen are listed in poundage.

For the 2025/2026 season, crabbers are allocated 2.68 million pounds of red king crab. That equals about 382,857 crabs based on an average weight of 7 pounds each. The allowable trawl bycatch for red king crab is 97,000 animals.

For Snow crab (opilio), the fishermen’s catch of 9.3 million pounds adds up to 6.2 million individual crabs weighing 1.5 pounds on average.

The allowable trawl bycatch for Snow crab is 12,850,000 animals.

For bairdi Tanner crab, the crabber’s pots can haul up a total of 11.25 million pounds – 10.12 million pounds from the Western district and 1.13 million pounds from the Eastern district. That equals 3.75 million crabs, based on an average weight of three pounds per crab.

The allowable trawl bycatch for bairdi Tanners is 3.95 million animals.

By far, most of the crab and halibut bycatch is taken by the Seattle-based Amendment 80 fleet of nearly 20 huge factory trawlers that drag the bottom of the Bering Sea for flounders and other groundfish.

Read the full article at Alaskafish.news

The Northern Cod Quota Increase – a risky decision or a precautionary approach?

November 21, 2025 — Earlier this year, the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) doubled the total allowable catch (TAC) in the Northern cod fishery off Newfoundland and Labrador. This is the same fishery that infamously collapsed and was officially closed to all commercial fishing activity in 1992. The DFO’s decision has, unsurprisingly, been very controversial.

For this post, we spoke to several experts to understand the decision-making process that reopened this fishery and increased the TAC for the upcoming season. We learned that the assessment process has evolved during the moratorium, incorporating more ecosystem considerations, such as capelin, a major food source for Northern cod. Other environmental factors may have hindered cod’s recovery, however. Some stakeholders seriously challenge the appropriateness of the reference points used to assess the population. There is wide disagreement on what a successful Northern cod fishery should look like in 2025 and beyond.

History of Northern cod

Northern cod landings surged significantly in the 1960s after European factory trawlers were introduced, enhancing fishing efficiency and catch volume. Before 1976, Canada could not enforce a 200-mile exclusive economic zone like it does now, so the cod fishery was practically open access. In 1968, catch peaked at 810,000 metric tons – roughly three times higher than the average annual catch in the 1950s.

10 years later, by 1978, the annual catch had plummeted to 138,500 metric tons. A brief rebound in the mid-1980s was followed by a population crash in the early 1990s.

Dr. Jake Rice, DFO’s chief scientist for nearly three decades and now emeritus, began his career studying terrestrial food webs before joining DFO in 1982 to study Northern cod. He was promoted to director of peer review and science advice for all of Canada’s fisheries in 1997. He spoke with us about the years before the moratorium:

Rice:

The first warnings came in the 1985-1986 stock assessments. Trends seemed to be heading in a different direction than expected, but we couldn’t explain why. The offshore fishery was skyrocketing, while the inshore fishery was having some of the worst summers in a generation. It became political and controversial. A review team, chaired by the late Dr. Lee Alverson, was appointed for further evaluation.

By 1990, we were more certain of the downward trend but still struggling to account for why it was happening. Foreign overfishing was the first boogeyman, but that theory was debunked after effective patrols proved this couldn’t be the primary cause. Next, it was seal predation, then it was discarding and underreporting. Every possible cause was considered.

Read the full article at Sustainable Fisheries UW

Latest meeting to set quotas for Northeast Atlantic pelagic fisheries yields little progress

November 19 2025 — The latest meeting of the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) resulted in no agreement on a sharing arrangement for blue whiting and opposition to a total allowable catch (TAC) for mackerel in line with scientific advice, leaving both fisheries facing overfishing for another year.

The International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) latest scientific advice for Northeast Atlantic pelagic species recommended big cuts to quotas for multiple fisheries, including a 41 percent decrease in the blue whiting catch and an even steeper 70 percent decrease to the mackerel catch – taking that stock from 576,968 metric tons (MT) to just 174,357 MT. That advice comes after years of overfishing of both species, caused by continuous disagreements between the member states of Norway, the E.U., the U.K., Iceland, Denmark with respect to the Faroe Islands and Greenland, and Russia – who have in the past repeatedly agreed to follow the ICES advice, but inevitably blown past the TAC after disagreeing over who should take what share of the catch.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

ASMFC Atlantic Menhaden Board Reduces 2026 TAC by 20% and Initiates Addendum for Chesapeake Bay Cap

October 31, 2025 — The following was released by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission:

The Commission’s Atlantic Menhaden Management Board received the results of the single-species assessment update and the 2025 Ecological Reference Points (ERPs) Assessment and Peer Review Reports and accepted the ERPs Assessment and Peer Review Report for management use. The goal of the ERPs is to maximize Atlantic menhaden fishing mortality while also accounting for the forage demands of Atlantic striped bass. Atlantic striped bass was the focal species for the reference points because it was the most sensitive predator fish species to Atlantic menhaden harvest in the NWACS-MICE model, so an ERP target and threshold that would provide adequate forage for striped bass would likely not cause declines for other predators in the model. The single-species assessment indicates the stock is not overfished nor experiencing overfishing relative to the ERPs developed through the benchmark assessment.

However, fishing mortality (F) was above the ERP F target and fecundity (a measure of the number of eggs the stock can produce in a year) was below the ERP fecundity target. Therefore, the Board set the 2026 total allowable catch (TAC) at 186,840 mt, a 20% decrease from the 2023-2025 TAC of 233,550 mt. Projections indicated this TAC would have a 0% chance of overfishing in 2026 but would still result in a 100% probability of fishing mortality being above the ERP F target. To have a lower probability of being at or above the ERP F target, a 50% or more reduction in the TAC would be required. The Board expressed concerns about the socioeconomic impact of implementing such a significant cut in a single year and chose to take a more moderate cut for 2026 only. This change will provide the Board time to conduct outreach on the results of this new assessment and receive more input from stakeholders before considering a TAC for 2027, 2028 and potentially 2029 at the 2026 Annual Meeting.

The need for reduction to achieve the ERP F target is due primarily to the change in the estimate of natural mortality used in the single-species stock assessment update, and secondarily to the lower values for the ERPs as a result of the updated and refined ERP model from the benchmark. The 2025 single-species assessment used a revised value of natural mortality that was lower than the value used in the 2020 benchmark and 2022 update. Natural mortality is the rate at which fish die from causes other than fishing; for menhaden, this includes things like predation, disease, and die-offs caused by low oxygen and warm water. This change was reviewed as part of the 2025 ERP Benchmark Assessment, and the Peer Review Panel agreed it represented the best available scientific information on natural mortality for Atlantic menhaden. Using a lower value of natural mortality in the stock assessment results in a lower overall estimate of population size. When a high estimate of natural mortality is used, the model estimates the population needs to be very large to produce the catches and the trends in observed indices. But, if natural mortality is lower, it means fewer fish are dying due to natural causes, meaning the stock does not need to be as large to produce the observed data.

This lower overall estimate of menhaden abundance was also used in the ecosystem models to establish the ERPs. This change, combined with updating estimates of predator (striped bass, bluefish, weakfish, and spiny dogfish) population sizes and diet data as well as refining the ecosystem model structure resulted in lower estimates of the ERP F target and threshold. The ERP assessment, which was endorsed by an independent panel of fisheries scientists, used the Northwest Atlantic Coastal Shelf Model of Intermediate Complexity for Ecosystems (NWACS-MICE) to develop Atlantic menhaden ERPs. The model was chosen because of its ability to explore both the impacts of predators on menhaden biomass and the effects of menhaden harvest on predator populations.

The Board also initiated an addendum to Amendment 3 to consider options to reduce the Chesapeake Bay Reduction Fishery Cap by up to 50% and distribute the cap more evenly throughout the fishing season. The options will aim to alleviate a concentration of effort that may be affecting other fisheries within the Bay and other potential ecological impacts. The Board discussed concerns regarding decreasing pound net harvests and catch per unit effort within the Bay as the timing of reduction fishing effort has changed the last few years. Amendment 3 currently caps reduction harvest within the Bay at 51,000 mt per year. The Board will review the Draft Addendum in February to consider the draft for public comment or provide additional guidance to the Plan Development Team for further development.

The Assessment Update, the Benchmark ERP Stock Assessment, Peer Review Report, and an overview of will be available on the Atlantic Menhaden webpage athttps://asmfc.org/species/atlantic-menhaden/ under News and Resources. For more information, please contact James Boyle, Fishery Management Plan Coordinator, at jboyle@asmfc.org or 703.842.0740.

Major menhaden fishing company says quota cuts will likely lead to “operational adjustments”

October 30, 2025 — The largest menhaden fishing company in the U.S. announced it will likely need to reexamine its operations in 2026 due to proposed cuts to the total allowable catch (TAC) for Atlantic menhaden.

The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) voted on 28 October to cut the 2026 Atlantic menhaden TAC by 20 percent, reducing it from 233,550 metric tons (MT) to 186,840 MT. The vote drew criticism from both the fishing industry and environmental groups, with the industry calling it unnecessary and environmental groups claiming it ignores problems with the stock.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

ASMFC approves 20 percent cuts to Atlantic menhaden quota for 2026

October 29, 2025 — The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) has chosen to cut the 2026 Atlantic menhaden quota by 20 percent for 2026, drawing criticism from the fishing industry and environmental groups alike.

The ASMFC menhaden management board met on 28 October and decided to reduce the total allowable catch (TAC) for menhaden to 186,840 metric tons (MT), down 20 percent from the 233,550-MT quota the commission set for 2025. The reduction was based on a number of different factors, including ecological reference points (ERPs) that include interactions between fishing mortality rates and striped bass, as well as other predator biomass targets, and a lower estimated fecundity of menhaden.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

Florida’s Oldest Seafood Trade Group Joins Menhaden Debate, Defending Science-Based Management

October 27, 2025 — The following was released by the Southeastern Fisheries Association:

The Southeastern Fisheries Association (SFA) — established in 1952 and describing itself as Florida’s oldest seafood industry association with members ranging from fishermen and boat owners to processors, markets, bait providers, restaurants, transportation companies, for-hire charter operators, and consumers from North Carolina through Texas — has urged the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Menhaden Management Board to reject drastic new quota reductions and keep management rooted in the fishery’s risk framework and established reference points.

In a formal letter to the Commission, SFA pointed to the most recent ecological reference point (ERP) assessment, which, the group wrote, “again found that the stock is not overfished and overfishing is not occurring,” adding that “management has consistently been more conservative than single-species reference points would have historically prescribed.”

The association said those findings demonstrate that current controls are already protecting the resource. “The probability of exceeding the ERP F THRESHOLD under current management is low,” the letter states. Because of that low risk, SFA argued against the sweeping 55-percent harvest cuts being discussed by some commissioners and outside advocates.

Instead, SFA proposed a narrowly precautionary adjustment to the coast-wide total allowable catch (TAC). “The coastwide TAC should not be reduced by more than a precautionary 10 percent (i.e., no lower than 210,195 metric tons). This would ensure no chance of overfishing in 2026 and only about a 1 percent probability if maintained through 2027–2028.” The association emphasized that anything more severe would be inconsistent with the science and the Commission’s own risk analysis.

The letter also reminded commissioners of the guiding fairness standard contained in the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Interstate Fisheries Management Program Charter: “Management measures shall be designed to achieve equivalent management results throughout the range of a stock.” SFA cautioned against using allocation changes to offset or disguise politically motivated quota reductions, arguing that management should remain consistent across jurisdictions.

On Chesapeake Bay issues, SFA advised the Board to hold off on any new restrictions until the recently funded Bay-specific research is complete. “The Board should await this new and relevant science before taking further action.” the association wrote, referring to the Science Center for Marine Fisheries (SCEMFIS) study now underway to design a scientifically defensible Bay harvest cap.

SFA concluded that the Commission’s present management already provides a strong, precautionary framework. By the association’s own assessment, “The probability of exceeding the ERP F THRESHOLD under current management is low,” and therefore, it said, “The coastwide TAC should not be reduced by more than a precautionary 10 percent.” The group urged commissioners to let those numbers — not politics — guide their decision.

Read the full letter here

Statement of the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition on the Upcoming Atlantic Menhaden Management Board Meeting

October 27, 2025 — The following was released by the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition:

Tomorrow, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Menhaden Board is slated to take up several issues which have the potential to gravely impact this historic fishery. First, it will consider the results of the menhaden and ecological reference points (“ERP”) stock assessment. Despite a lower estimate of menhaden fecundity, the stock status remains not overfished and overfishing is not occurring. The assessment team attributed this to the fact that menhaden “management has consistently been more conservative than single-species reference points would have historically prescribed.”

The second and most immediately consequential decision facing the Board is setting the total allowable catch (TAC) of menhaden for 2026 through 2028. Some are calling for up to 55% cuts to the current TAC, which would devastate not only the 150-year-old reduction fishery, but small-scale bait fishermen all along the Atlantic coast and the lobstermen and crabbers that depend on them. This is wholly unjustified. As the scientists who prepared the ERP assessment noted, even if the current TAC were to be maintained, “the probability of exceeding the ERP F_THRESHOLD [that is, overfishing to the detriment of menhaden predators] is low.” They also affirmed that the fishery has little impact on predators like striped bass because, for one, they mostly rely on younger fish that are not targeted by the fishery and, two, because the “main driver for Atlantic menhaden availability to predators is recruitment success,” which is mostly determined by environmental factors.

That said, the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition supports a precautionary reduction of no more than 15% to the current TAC (or 198,518 metric tons). This level would ensure that there is no chance of overfishing over the next three years and provides fisheries managers confidence that the stock will remain healthy. This is a responsible TAC that promotes conservation and protects families that rely on the fishery.

The third agenda item of concern is the potential for initiating an action to consider reallocation of the TAC among the states. The Coalition does not oppose a review of current allocations. However, any attempt to mitigate the impact of drastic quota cuts by forcing only one or two states to shoulder the burden of conservation is inconsistent with the ISFMP Charter, which requires that “management measures shall be designed to achieve equivalent management results throughout the range of a stock.” As the initial and subsequent allocation systems did, any reallocation should consider current use of and dependence on menhaden. If reductions in the TAC are enacted, the Board should reevaluate the allocation of TAC to states with no fishery.

Finally, the Menhaden Board will address Maryland’s proposal to put new, unjustifiable limits on the precautionary Chesapeake Bay menhaden reduction fishery cap. There is simply no scientific justification for any such new measures. The Science Center for Marine Fisheries, administered by the National Science Foundation and supported by the fishing industry, is undertaking new research, led by the most respected scientists in the field, to investigate issues related to management in the Chesapeake Bay. The Board should await this new and relevant science before taking further action.

EU Commission proposes 2019 TACs for Atlantic, North Sea

November 9, 2018 — The European Commission has proposed new 2019 quotas for 89 separate stocks in the east Atlantic and North Sea.

The new quotas will see total allowable catch (TAC) increased or maintained for 62 stocks, while 22 stocks have seen a decrease in TAC — five of which have a proposed TAC of zero, indicating that the reduced stocks should no longer be targeted at all.

Some of the biggest quota gains belonged to North Atlantic haddock, which had a proposed TAC of 10,469 metric tons, up 103% from 2018; horse mackerel off the west coast of Spain, with a proposed quota of 94,017t, up 69%; and Norwegian lobster west of Sweden, up 65% to a new TAC of 19,424t.

Read the full story at Undercurrent News