July 11, 2018 — SEAFOOD NEWS — The most recent Port Moller Test Fishery catches plus escapement data indicates this year’s total Bristol Bay sockeye run (catch plus escapement) will likely be at least 50-55 million.

The magnitude and timing of the world’s largest salmon run changes with each day’s data, but the most recent minimum estimate would put the 2018 season in the top two, since 1997. Bristol Bay’s largest run since 1997 returned in 2015 at 58.8 million sockeye.

That was the total run. The harvest from that run in 2015 was 37.9 million sockeye, the second largest since 1997. The following year, in 2016, Bristol Bay pegged the largest harvest in 20 years at 39.4 million.

With a total catch to date of 16.6 million and the assumption that the run is still building, the final catch numbers could well be above the mid-point harvest forecast of 37.59 million sockeye.

Alaska Department of Fish and Game gives a range for the total run in the bay, and a point estimate for the total catch. The 2018 run size ranges from 40.7 million sockeye to 61.9 million. The harvest point estimate is 37.6 million sockeye.

Dr. Scott Rayborn’s latest interpretation of the data, written last Saturday, July 7, indicated that the run should “build inshore through about July 12 before tapering on July 13-14.”

“We expect the daily catch and escapement will bounce around these daily projections, but if on average it is correct, then the total run would be 47 million by July 14,” Raborn said. That is well within the pre-season total run forecast range.

“We will need to know what the remainder of the test fishing indices look like to see how big the tail may be beyond July 14,” he explained. “We only predict the catch plus escapement (C+E) that is between Port Moller and the inshore districts.”

Catches in the Nushagak District account for the lion’s share of the bay’s landings so far. Over 14 million sockeye have been caught to date, with 3.4 million fish landed in the other districts.

The total catch for sockeye from all areas in the state is now just over 19.4 million salmon.

This story originally appeared on SeafoodNews.com, a subscription site. It is reprinted with permission.