November 21, 2025 — Earlier this year, the Canadian Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) doubled the total allowable catch (TAC) in the Northern cod fishery off Newfoundland and Labrador. This is the same fishery that infamously collapsed and was officially closed to all commercial fishing activity in 1992. The DFO’s decision has, unsurprisingly, been very controversial.
For this post, we spoke to several experts to understand the decision-making process that reopened this fishery and increased the TAC for the upcoming season. We learned that the assessment process has evolved during the moratorium, incorporating more ecosystem considerations, such as capelin, a major food source for Northern cod. Other environmental factors may have hindered cod’s recovery, however. Some stakeholders seriously challenge the appropriateness of the reference points used to assess the population. There is wide disagreement on what a successful Northern cod fishery should look like in 2025 and beyond.
History of Northern cod
Northern cod landings surged significantly in the 1960s after European factory trawlers were introduced, enhancing fishing efficiency and catch volume. Before 1976, Canada could not enforce a 200-mile exclusive economic zone like it does now, so the cod fishery was practically open access. In 1968, catch peaked at 810,000 metric tons – roughly three times higher than the average annual catch in the 1950s.
10 years later, by 1978, the annual catch had plummeted to 138,500 metric tons. A brief rebound in the mid-1980s was followed by a population crash in the early 1990s.
Dr. Jake Rice, DFO’s chief scientist for nearly three decades and now emeritus, began his career studying terrestrial food webs before joining DFO in 1982 to study Northern cod. He was promoted to director of peer review and science advice for all of Canada’s fisheries in 1997. He spoke with us about the years before the moratorium:
Rice:
The first warnings came in the 1985-1986 stock assessments. Trends seemed to be heading in a different direction than expected, but we couldn’t explain why. The offshore fishery was skyrocketing, while the inshore fishery was having some of the worst summers in a generation. It became political and controversial. A review team, chaired by the late Dr. Lee Alverson, was appointed for further evaluation.
By 1990, we were more certain of the downward trend but still struggling to account for why it was happening. Foreign overfishing was the first boogeyman, but that theory was debunked after effective patrols proved this couldn’t be the primary cause. Next, it was seal predation, then it was discarding and underreporting. Every possible cause was considered.
