March 26, 2018, PROVINCETOWN, Mass. — Inside the cabin of the research vessel Shearwater, Charles “Stormy” Mayo, senior scientist and director of the Right Whale Ecology Program at the Center for Coastal Studies, pulled up on his computer an image of the family tree of North Atlantic right whale #1140.

This whale — dubbed “Wart” by researchers — has a file of photographs, identifying marks, and a life history, as does nearly every one of the remaining 451 right whales on earth.

“Her productivity has been extraordinary,” Mayo said. But Wart hasn’t been seen since 2014, and some worry her fabled life may have come to an end.

Last summer was particularly tragic with 16, possibly 17, right whales — 4 percent of the remaining population — killed after being hit by ships, entangled in fishing gear, and other unknown causes.

Extinction, experts say, is suddenly a reality.

“It was one of the big stories of the day, that right whales were coming back,” Mayo said. “But up to 2010, you had this appallingly slow climb, then decline. Now we have a species that is clearly headed for extinction.”

Wart, first seen in 1981, at the dawn of right whale research, has been subsequently spotted and identified 66 times from the Bay of Fundy to Florida. Believed to be in her 50s now, she is one of the more successful breeders — mother to seven calves, grandmother to 13 and great-grandmother to six.

But that productivity may not be enough in the face of a host of environmental issues related to an increasingly urbanized ocean — vessel noise, pollution and oil and gas exploration — and the unknown complications from a rapidly warming sea that could affect, for example, the seasonal timing of critical right whale food.

Then, there is the intractable problem of human induced mortality and serious injury.

Sixteen deaths last summer caused many to hit the panic button. Researcher Brian Sharp called it shocking.

“It begs the need for fishery managers, the industry and scientists to push harder to find solutions,” said Sharp, manager of Marine Mammal Rescue and Research at the International Fund for Animal Welfare in Yarmouth.

Twelve of last year’s deaths occurred in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, where right whales had been seen sporadically over the last four decades, fewer than a dozen a year, and not well-documented. Five live entanglements also were documented in that area last year. Unlike the U.S., Canada has had no ship or fishing restrictions in place as the numbers of whales documented in the Gulf, possibly following prey driven north by climate change, has grown.

But four deaths also happened in the U.S. last year, despite decades of research and planning on how to create whale-safe fishing gear, massive fishing closures and rerouted and slowed ships to avoid fatal interactions with whales. The U.S. deaths alone were four times the number scientists set as the maximum allowed per year if the species is going to recover.

“There’s a huge misconception that the industry is not sensitive to this matter or not aware of it. We certainly are, and it concerns the industry a lot,” said Grant Moore, of Westport, a longtime offshore lobsterman and president of the Atlantic Offshore Lobstermen’s Association.

The exact number of North Atlantic right whales that existed prior to human killing is unknown, but the population was likely reduced to fewer than 100 by the time the international 1935 ban on whaling was enacted.

Read the full story at the Cape Cod Times