August 5, 2020 — Today researchers announced the size of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone, the official measurement NOAA uses to track its size year over year. This comes on the heels of bad news from another NOAA report indicating that the volume of Gulf shrimp landings in June 2020 was the lowest ever recorded.
Researchers found that the dead zone measured 5,048 square kilometers, slightly larger than the state of Rhode Island. This year’s dead zone is much smaller than predicted, not because nitrogen pollution flowing into the Gulf was lower, but because Hurricane Hanna dispersed it at the time it was measured.
Hurricanes have dispersed the dead zone in previous years, causing its size to be smaller than expected given data on nitrogen pollution flowing into the Gulf in the same year. In fact, earlier this year Louisiana University and NOAA researchers predicted, assuming no hurricane, that nitrogen loading levels in the Gulf would cause a dead zone that was 20,000 square kilometers, which is about the size of New Hampshire.
On its face, this may seem like a silver lining. But these hurricanes will likely make tracking the dead zone size even more challenging in the years ahead. And with climate change expected to increase hurricane size and intensity in the Gulf between now and the end of the century, it’s clear that there are long-term challenges to measuring the Gulf dead zone. To make matters worse hurricanes have a negative impact on Gulf fishing industries, too.