March 26, 2019 — If we ignore the dangerously shifting global climate system, there will be consequences: more extreme rainfall, more intense hurricanes, drier and longer wildfire seasons, and continued sea level rise all loom on the horizon. In fact, extreme weather changes are already being seen around the globe.
But one of the lesser known, already visible impacts of climate change is on sea turtles. A recent paper, led by UMass Amherst doctoral candidate Lucas Griffin, links a rapidly warming Gulf of Maine to increased sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod.
“We were surprised the results suggested this increase was linked with warmer sea surface temperatures,” Griffin says. The scientists originally thought the strandings might be associated with how many young sea turtles hatched. But turtles, it turns out, are just one of many Gulf of Maine species “exhibiting a similar shift in both habitat distribution and in phenology patterns.”
The Gulf of Maine is in crisis: The region is warming faster than 99 percent of the global ocean. Fish stocks are moving north, key food web events like the spring plankton bloom are occurring earlier in the year, and regional waters are staying warmer for longer. Griffin’s team used both machine learning and Bayesian statistical methods—using existing data and probability to quantify uncertainty in inferences—to analyze the relationship between water temperatures and the number of cold-stunned turtles, the potentially lethal turtle equivalent of hypothermia. The innovative approach confirmed what local naturalists and wildlife biologists had been observing for years: Warmer waters in the region actually lead to an increased threat of cold-stunning.