Climate change Archives - Page 108 of 138

UMaine Coastal Maine Climate Futures report issued

November 28, 2018 — Climate change means Mainers can expect to see significant environmental changes in the next two decades and they should start to prepare by planning now, University of Maine researchers say.

Using weather data dating back more than a century — to 1895 — UMaine researchers are able to track climate change and predict what the state may see in the future.

The purpose of the report is to provide both an overview of Maine’s historical climate but to provide plausible climate scenarios for the next 20 years,” said Sean Birkel, a UMaine research assistant professor and Maine State Climatologist.

Birkel and Paul Mayewski, director of the Climate Change Institute, created the Coastal Maine Climate Futures report to help prepare Mainers for what they call “significant environmental changes” on the horizon.

Since January 1895, the average coastal temperature in Maine and the sea surface temperature have both increased by 3 degrees, and rainfall has increased by around six inches.

That’s been great for some industries, like agriculture and lobster in the Gulf of Maine, which have increased four-fold since the 1980s, but not so great for others, including the cod fisheries because cod cannot tolerate the warmer temperatures.

“All of this is the human impacts,” Birkel said.

The melting of the polar ice cap, which is due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, and increases in the frequency of El Nino warm and dry weather conditions, are key factors in the warming trend for Maine.

“In these images, we see how the end of summer Arctic sea ice extent has changed — 1980 on the left and 2016 on the right,” Birkel said pointing to images of ice on the northern pole.

“So as Arctic sea ice declines… It’s affecting the weather because there is more open ocean water, there is more absorption of heat,” he said. “There is also more heat exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere.”

Read the full story at WVFX

Trump Administration Report Recommends Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions To Protect Oceans From Climate Change

November 27, 2018 — The Fourth National Climate Assessment is a landmark report that was published last week on the day after Thanksgiving. It summarizes the impacts of climate change in the United States as well as potential mitigation and adaptation measures. The report states that the combined effect of burning fossil fuels, developing natural landscapes, and deforestation have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Earth’s atmosphere* and emphasizes that drastically reducing GHGs is necessary to prevent the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.

According to the report, climate change is modifying the ocean environment in three primary ways: warming, oxygen loss, and acidification. These “stressors” have large implications for ocean ecosystems and marine fisheries. Globally, ocean surface temperatures have increased by nearly 1.3°F over the past century and “… more than 90% of the extra heat linked to carbon emissions is contained in the ocean.” As the ocean warms, seawater not only expands and causes sea levels to rise, but it also loses its ability to hold gases – including oxygen. Additionally, as carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activities dissolves in seawater, it undergoes a series of chemical reactions that are gradually causing the ocean to become more acidic.

While warming, oxygen loss, and acidification will likely reduce the diversity of life in the sea, they will also impact fisheries, seafood farming, and recreational activities. These stressors will also interact and can have complex impacts. For example, as climate change progresses, hurricanes will become more frequent and intense. These hurricanes may redistribute nutrients that cause massive algal blooms that are sustained by warmer temperatures. When the blooms die off, microbes respire as they assist in the algae’s decomposition, simultaneously producing CO2 and consuming oxygen that cause ocean acidification and oxygen loss. The severe red tide along the Florida coast this year was likely a product of this series of events.

Read the full story at Forbes

Here’s how climate change will impact your part of the country

November 27, 2018 — Northeast:

There will be shorter winters and longer summers.
There will be a decline of species that support some of the most valuable and iconic fisheries, including Atlantic cod, Atlantic sea scallops and American lobsters.
Expect approximately 650 excess deaths per year caused by extreme heat by 2050
Health risks from contaminated flood waters. For example, because much of the historical development of industry and commerce in New England occurred along rivers, canals, coasts, and other bodies of water, these areas often have a higher density of contaminated sites, waste management facilities, and petroleum storage facilities that are potentially vulnerable to flooding.

Northwest:

Ocean/water warming: Increasing ocean temperatures and acidity impact fish survival, the report states. As water temperatures continue to rise, negative impacts on fisheries are expected to increase. With increased stream temperature projections, the report predicts a 22% reduction in salmon habitat in Washington by the end of the century if emissions continue to release at a higher rate. That kind of salmon population loss would correlate to a $3 billion economic loss.

Alaska:

The state is “warming faster than any other state” and “twice as fast as the global average since the middle of the 20th century.”
Devastating impact to fishing industry: Alaskan fisheries “are among the most productive and valuable in the world.” A “recent heat wave in the Gulf of Alaska, which led to an inability of the fishery to harvest the Pacific cod quota in 2016 and 2017 and to an approximately 80% reduction in the allowable quota in 2018.”

Read the full story at CNN

From skiing to salmon runs, the national climate report predicts a Northwest in peril

November 27, 2018 — Climate change’s effects – among them, increasing wildfires, disease outbreak and drought – are taking a toll on the Northwest, and what’s to come will threaten and transform our way of life from the salmon streams to ski slopes, according to a new federal climate assessment released Friday.

The 1,000-plus-page report, produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is the most comprehensive evaluation to date of climate change’s effects on the nation’s economy, human health, agriculture and environment. Thirteen federal agencies contributed to the report, which was required to be published by Congress.

The federal report’s stark, direct and largely negative projections are at odds with President Donald Trump’s skeptical view of climate science. But federal officials, like National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration researcher David Easterling, left little room for ambiguity about whether climate change was real and who was causing it.

Temperature data, Easterling said, provided “clear and compelling evidence that global average temperature is much higher and rising more rapidly than anything modern civilization has experienced and that this warming trend can only be explained by human activities …”

Read the full story at The Seattle Times

Blockages gone, fish back in post-Sandy projects in Mass., 5 other states

November 26, 2018 — Billions of dollars have been spent on the recovery from Superstorm Sandy to help people get their lives back together, but a little-noticed portion of that effort is quietly helping another population along the shoreline: fish that need to migrate from coastal rivers out to the sea and back.

After the 2012 storm, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service spent nearly $11 million on a series of projects to remove dams and other blockages from coastal waters in six states, partnering with local environmental groups. Fish species that were scarce or entirely absent from those waterways for years soon began showing up again.

The so-called “aquatic connectivity” projects in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia were part of a $105 million effort not only to fix what was damaged by Sandy, but also to improve environmental conditions in places where recreational benefits could help tourism and the economy, as well. While the storm did its worst damage in New York and New Jersey, its effects were felt in many states along the East Coast.

“The idea was not only to do good things for fish and wildlife, but to provide community benefits and make communities more resilient,” said Rick Bennett, a scientist with the Fish and Wildlife Service in Massachusetts. “By removing dams, you also reduce flooding, especially upstream.”

Aquatic species benefiting from the work include the Eastern Brook trout, sea run brown trout, sea lamprey, American eel and river herring.

One of the first and most successful projects happened in Spring Lake, New Jersey’s Wreck Pond. For years, the conflicting goals of protecting the environment and some of the New Jersey shore’s priciest real estate from storms have bedeviled the pond.

Storms sometimes open a channel between the 48-acre tidal pond and the ocean, but governments keep sealing it shut to protect homes from flooding. The result was poor water quality and much narrower access to the ocean, which hurts fish that travel from ocean to pond to breed.

The American Littoral Society oversaw construction of a concrete culvert between the pond and the ocean to make it easier for fish, including herring, to reach the sea. In addition to letting fish in and out more easily, the culvert can be opened or closed as needed during storms to control flooding.

It succeeded at both goals, said Tim Dillingham, the group’s executive director.

“The restoration of connectivity to allow fish to return and spawn has been a great success,” he said. “We’re seeing fish come back in numbers we hadn’t seen before. And it has also added to the resiliency of the area during storms, by adding capacity to deal with flooding.”

Read the full story from the Associated Press at Boston.com

Changing climate to put further pressure on New England, federal report predicts

November 26, 2018 — New England’s forests, fisheries and cultural traditions are already experiencing significant disruptions from a changing climate and will face additional transformation over the coming decades, according to a federal report released Friday.

Northeastern states are seeing some of the largest changes in the nation, yet conditions are shifting even faster in New England than the region as a whole, in some instances. Annual average temperatures in New England, for example, rose by roughly 3 degrees since the beginning of the last century compared to 1.8 degrees in the contiguous United States.

Those temperature changes – combined with shifts in precipitation levels and rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine – will continue to impact the health, economy and aging infrastructure of the region.

“For example, because much of the historical development of industry and commerce in New England occurred along rivers, canals, coasts, and other bodies of water, these areas often have a higher density of contaminated sites, waste management facilities, and petroleum storage facilities that are potentially vulnerable to flooding,” reads the report from 13 federal agencies.

“As a result, increases in flood frequency or severity could increase the spread of contaminants into soils and waterways, resulting in increased risks to the health of nearby ecosystems, animals, and people – a set of phenomena well documented following Superstorm Sandy,” the report says.

While the political debate over climate change continues, there is little doubt among fishermen or the scientists who work with them that the Gulf of Maine is changing. Maine fishermen now routinely see species once found only in southern or mid-Atlantic states while stocks of northern shrimp and cod have been depleted or moved north to cooler waters.

The report cited numerous examples of New England fishermen attempting to adapt to those changes and acknowledged that the arrival of new species will create new opportunities. But the authors also warned that markets, shoreside infrastructure as well as regulatory restriction on what fishermen can catch are often slower to respond.

Scientists also predict that species particularly important to New England face a bleaker future because of rising acidity levels as the oceans absorb more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Read the full story at the Portland Press Herald

Moratorium on Northern Shrimp Commercial Fishing Maintained Through 2021

November 19, 2018 — The following was released by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission:

In response to the continued depleted condition of the northern shrimp resource, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Northern Shrimp Section extended the moratorium on commercial fishing through 2021. This three-year moratorium was set in response to the low levels of biomass and recruitment and the fact that, should recruitment improve, it would take several years for those shrimp to be commercially harvestable.

The 2018 Stock Assessment Update indicates the Gulf of Maine northern shrimp population remains depleted, with spawning stock biomass (SSB) at extremely low levels since 2013. SSB in 2018 was estimated at 1.3 million pounds, lower than SSB in 2017 (1.5 million pounds). Recruitment has also been low in recent years, with 2018 recruitment estimated at two billion shrimp. This is below the time series median of 2.6 billion shrimp. Fishing mortality has remained low in recent years due to the moratorium.

High levels of natural mortality and low levels of recruitment continue to hinder recovery of the stock. Predation contributes significantly to the natural mortality of northern shrimp and has been at high levels over the past decade. In addition, long-term trends in environmental conditions have not been favorable for the recruitment of northern shrimp. Ocean temperatures in the western Gulf of Maine have increased over the past decade, with warmer water temperature generally associated with lower recruitment indices and poorer survival during the first year of life. With ocean temperatures predicted to continue to rise, this suggests an increasingly inhospitable environment for northern shrimp in the Gulf of Maine.

Given this change in the environment and the lack of change in stock status despite the fishery being under a moratorium for the past five years, the Section debated current management approaches and if they are appropriate in the face of changing ocean conditions. Ultimately, the Section unanimously agreed to establish a working group to evaluate management strategies for northern shrimp given changes in species abundance, particularly as a result of changing ocean conditions. In February 2018, the Commission approved guidance that species management boards and sections could use to address shifts in species abundance and distribution. The Section will have the opportunity to use this guidance to determine if or what management changes should be made if the stock has no ability to recover.

While industry members advocated for re-opening the commercial fishery in order to evaluate the stock status and provide economic benefits to local fishermen, Technical Committee analysis showed there is little-to-no possibility of 2019 SSB being greater than it was in 2017, even in the absence of fishing. Given the low biomass of the stock, the Section did not establish a Research Set Aside; however, annual surveys including the summer shrimp survey and the Northeast Fisheries Science Center trawl survey will continue to collect important data on the stock.

The Section also approved Addendum I to the Interstate Fishery Management Plan for Northern Shrimp. The Addendum provides states the authority to allocate their state-specific quota between gear types in the event the fishery reopens.

Finally, the Section established a second working group to review the existing Gulf of Maine Summer Northern Shrimp Survey. This working group will evaluate ways to improve the reliability and efficiency of the survey, including shifting to greater commercial industry involvement in the collection of data. Transitioning the shrimp survey to a commercial platform would be one of the options considered by the working group.

For more information, please contact Megan Ware, Fishery Management Plan Coordinator, at mware@asmfc.org or 703.842.0740.

NOAA Fisheries Studies Impact of Climate Change on Fish of N.E. Coast

November 12, 2018 — Waters off the Northeastern United States are among the fastest warming and most studied in the world’s ocean. Both abrupt and subtle changes caused by warming are evident in fishery stocks now, and NOAA Fisheries Center researchers are working on tools for understanding what that means for future stock conditions and the fisheries that depend on them.

Armed with decades of data and a strong appreciation of what climate change could mean for fisheries, Center researchers are focusing on science to help navigate this rapidly evolving future.

Read the full story at The Fishing Wire

Alaska Pollock Spawning Season May be Earlier Under Climate Change

November 16, 2018 — A new study using an unprecedented 32-year data series reveals that spawning time of Alaska pollock– target of the Nation’s biggest fishery– varied by as much as three weeks over the past three decades in the Gulf of Alaska. The new study found clear evidence that the changes were driven by both climate and fishing.

Changes in spawn timing have major ecological and management implications. Timing is critical to survival of newly hatched fish as it determines the conditions they encounter. Many marine fish, like pollock, are adapted to spawn in time for offspring to meet the rapid increase of their plankton prey in spring. If they arrive too early, there may not be enough food; if they arrive too late, the young fish will have less time to grow and will be small compared to their predators and competitors.

Because most mortality happens during the first few weeks of life for pollock, changes in spawn timing that affect larval survival can strongly affect recruitment success–how many fish are available to the fishery two or three years later.

“To effectively monitor and manage pollock populations, managers need to understand what causes changes in spawn timing. With ongoing warming of the world’s oceans,we need to know how changing climate conditions interact with other processes, like harvesting, to influence spawning time,” says Lauren Rogers, the NOAA Fisheries biologist who led the study.

Toward that end, Rogers’ team investigated how pollock spawn timing has shifted over warm and cool periods and large shifts in age structure in the Gulf of Alaska.

“The strength of our study is comprehensive information from an amazing 32-year time series of larval fish size, age, and abundance, validated with maturation data from spawning females, and combined with at-sea process studies, laboratory experiments, and age readings. Using these resources, we were able to test for effects of climate and age structure on both mean spawn timing and duration, and forecast spawn timing under different scenarios of warming and fishing mortality,” Rogers says.

The Study Produced Two Major Findings

Warmer Temperatures Mean Earlier and Longer Spawning–To a Point

Climate clearly drives variation in spawn timing of walleye pollock, with warmer temperatures leading to an earlier and longer spawning period. However, above a threshold temperature, increased warming had no additional effect on spawn timing.

“Because temperatures are projected to be consistently above that threshold with ongoing ocean warming, our results suggest that pollock spawn timing will become more stable in the future,” says Rogers.

Older, Bigger Mothers Spawn Earlier and Over a Longer Duration

An older spawning population started spawning earlier and over a longer duration than a population of predominantly young spawners, highlighting the importance of older mothers.

This is where fishing comes in: harvesting leads to a younger, smaller population over time. In general, increased mortality reduces the mean age of a population, and this effect is strengthened if older individuals are targeted through size selective harvesting. Besides direct effects of harvesting on age structure, fishing may cause evolutionary change by selecting for reproductive maturation at an earlier age or smaller size.

“Our models suggest that changes in pollock age structure associated with sustainable fishing can shift the mean spawning date to 7 days later and shorten the spawning season by 9 days compared to an unfished population, independent of climate conditions.” says Rogers.

That shift could cause young fish to arrive out of sync with their food in two ways: by decoupling the arrival of first feeding fish larvae from temperature-driven changes in plankton production; and by reducing the window over which young fish are delivered into the ecosystem, thus increasing the risk of mismatch with plankton production.

As age of the spawning population increases, spawning begins earlier (a). Warmer temperatures mean earlier spawning to a point around 4 ℃; above that temperature, spawning time levels out (b).

Spawn Timing and the Future

“Our models suggest that climate change will lead to an earlier, stabilized spawning season in the future.” Rogers says. “What we don’t know is how that will affect synchrony of first-feeding larvae with production of their zooplankton prey in spring.”

Rogers hopes future research will answer that question. “We are looking at ways to evaluate match-mismatch with prey by comparing prey and larval fish production.” She also hopes to develop the model into a practical forecasting tool. “If we could use climate and age composition data to predict spawn timing 3-4 months ahead, the forecast could be used to make sure surveys are optimally timed to coincide with peak spawning periods.”

Climatic closures: Crabbers file suit over warming waters

November 16, 2018 — On Wednesday morning, Nov. 14, as crabbers in California’s San Francisco Bay prepared for the state’s Dungeness crab opener today, the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations filed a lawsuit alleging that 30 fossil fuel companies are to blame for the past four years of delayed Dungeness crab seasons and disastrous economic losses. The reason? Ocean warming as a result of fossil fuel consumption.

“We’re taking a stand for the captains and crew, their families, and the business owners that support the fleet,” said Noah Oppenheim, the association’s executive director. “The fossil fuel companies named in our lawsuit knowingly caused harm, and they need to be held accountable. We are seeking to implement measures, at the fossil fuel industry’s expense, that will help crabbers adapt to a world in which domoic acid flare-ups will be increasingly common, and also help those crabbers who suffer financial losses as a result.”

The lawsuit claims that these fossil fuel companies have been aware for nearly 50 years that “greenhouse gas pollution from their fossil fuel products has a significant impact on Earth’s climate, including a warming of the oceans” and that West Coast crabbers, their families and the communities they support have suffered “substantial economic losses due to those lost fishing opportunities.”

“We’re out fishing all the time, and it’s obvious the oceans are getting warmer,” said Crescent City, Calif., crabber John Beardon. “That’s bad for crabs and other fish, and it’s bad for those of us who make a living on the water. The last three years have been really hard. Our community came together and held a fish fry to help our crew members. But fish fries and disaster relief are no solution to these closures we’re now seeing year after year after year.”

This summer, the government allocated $25.8 million in disaster assistance to those affected by the 2015-16 closure of California’s commercial Dungeness and rock crab fisheries. While that funding was welcome, it certainly didn’t solve the problems of commercial fishing families coming off a series of tough seasons. Oppenheim said that that the 2015-16 closure cost the industry $110 million in lost revenue.

Read the full story at National Fisherman