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New Study: Precautionary Catch Limits on Forage Fish Unlikely to Benefit Predators

July 6, 2021 — The following was released by the Science Center for Marine Fisheries:

A newly released study finds that, for many predator species, extra-precautionary management of forage fish is unlikely to bring additional benefits. How to manage forage fish sustainably, both by themselves and for the rest of the ecosystem, has become a much-discussed topic in fisheries management, with regulators of several forage fisheries beginning to adopt precautionary strategies on the premise that they will better provide for the needs of predator species including seabirds, marine mammals, and fish.

The study, from Drs. Chris Free of the University of California-Santa Barbara, Olaf Jensen of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Ray Hilborn of the University of Washington, examines decades of historical abundance data of both forage species and their predators, and uses mathematical models to determine to what extent predator populations benefited from increasing abundance of their forage fish prey. Of the 45 predator populations examined, only 6, or 13 percent, were positively influenced by extra forage.

“Our work suggests that the sustainable limits that we already employ are sufficient for maintaining forage fish abundance above the thresholds that are necessary for their predators,” said Dr. Free. “Predators are highly mobile, they have high diet flexibility, and they can go and look for forage fish in places where they’re doing well, switch species for species that are doing well, and have often evolved to breed in places where there’s high and stable forage fish abundance.”

The results have important implications for how strictly to manage forage fisheries. The study finds that, at least in forage fisheries that are already being well managed and are closely monitored, adopting additional precautionary measures will “rarely” provide any additional benefits to predator population growth. However, fishery managers who deal with less well-monitored fisheries may consider more precautionary strategies.

“In places of the world where we already have really strong, very effective fisheries management, additional limitations on forage fish catch are not likely to benefit their predators,” said Dr. Free.

“Management of forage fish populations should be based on data that are specific to that forage fish, and to their predators,” said Dr. Jensen. “When there aren’t sufficient data to conduct a population-specific analysis, it’s reasonable to manage forage fish populations for maximum sustainable yield, as we would other fish populations under the Magnuson-Stevens Act.”

According to the models used in the study, other environmental factors, such as water temperature, are more likely to influence predator populations. These results are consistent with previous efforts to examine the relationship between predator and prey populations.

“What we’ve done here that’s different from previous analyses is try to control for some of the other factors that influence predator population dynamics,” said Dr. Jensen. “In this case, we included in the models a covariate representing ocean temperature.”

SCEMFIS produced a video of the authors and independent experts discussing the results of the paper. Watch it here.

Read the full release here

Earth’s fish are disappearing because of climate change, study says

March 1, 2019 — Climate change is endangering fish worldwide, shrinking populations by up to 35% in coastal regions near China and Japan, scientists say.

Ocean warming has led to a 4% global decline in sustainable catches, the greatest amount of fish that can be caught without depleting stocks long-term, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Science.

Using global data on fisheries and ocean temperature maps, scientists from Rutgers University in New Jersey analyzed changes in sustainable catches triggered by temperature rises between 1930 and 2010.

The scientists said they were “stunned” to discover that global warming has significantly affected fish stocks worldwide and warned that the decline could threaten the livelihoods and food supplies of millions of people.

More than 56 million people worldwide work in the fishing industry, and seafood provides up to half of all animal protein eaten in developing countries, the scientists said.

The most drastic decline was recorded in Asia’s coastal regions, including the East China Sea and Japan’s Kuroshio Current, where stocks plummeted by 15% to 35% over the past 80 years.

“Ecosystems in East Asia have seen enormous declines in productivity. These areas have particularly rapid warming [and] also have historically high levels of overfishing,” said lead researcher Chris Free, a quantitative ecologist at the University of California,

Read the full story at CNN

Climate change is depleting our essential fisheries

February 28, 2019 — A new study published Thursday in the journal Science outlines the impacts warming waters are having on commercially important fish species.

The world’s fishing industry relies on what’s called fisheries, the clusters of regional fish populations that people can catch economically. And on average, the researchers found that the numbers of fish in critical fisheries around the world have decreased by four percent since 1930.

Fisheries located in the Sea of Japan and the North Sea were the worst off. They experienced as much as a 35 percent drop in their numbers. Other fisheries, however, benefitted from warmer waters, and their populations grew, an expansion scientists warn could create unsustainable competition for resources.

“We were surprised at the strength the impact of warming has already had on fish populations,” says the study’s lead author, ecologist Chris Free at the University of California Santa Barbara.

Read the full story at National Geographic

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