Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission Archives - Page 3 of 126

Major menhaden fishing company says quota cuts will likely lead to “operational adjustments”

October 30, 2025 — The largest menhaden fishing company in the U.S. announced it will likely need to reexamine its operations in 2026 due to proposed cuts to the total allowable catch (TAC) for Atlantic menhaden.

The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) voted on 28 October to cut the 2026 Atlantic menhaden TAC by 20 percent, reducing it from 233,550 metric tons (MT) to 186,840 MT. The vote drew criticism from both the fishing industry and environmental groups, with the industry calling it unnecessary and environmental groups claiming it ignores problems with the stock.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

American Lobster Benchmark Stock Assessment Finds GOM/GBK Stock Not Depleted but Experiencing Overfishing & SNE Stock Significantly Depleted but Not Experiencing Overfishing

October 30, 2025 — The following was released by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission:

The Commission’s American Lobster Management Board received the results of the 2025 American Lobster Benchmark Stock Assessment and Peer Review Report, which presents contrasting results for the two American lobster stocks in US waters. The Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank (GOM/GBK) stock is not depleted but has declined 34% since peak levels in 2018, and overfishing is occurring. The Southern New England (SNE) stock remains significantly depleted with record low abundances for all life stages in recent years.

“The Benchmark Stock Assessment is a considerable advancement in our understanding US American lobster resource. It was fully endorsed by an external panel of fishery scientists as the best scientific information available to manage the lobster resource,” stated Board Chair Renee Zobel from New Hampshire. “On behalf of the American Lobster Board, I commend the members of the Technical Committee and Stock Assessment Subcommittee for their outstanding work on the 2025 Benchmark Stock Assessment Report. This assessment reflects the commitment of the Committee and Peer Review Panel to providing the Board with the highest-caliber science to inform management decisions and improve our understanding of the complex and changing relationship between the environment and lobster resource.”

There are notable differences between the fisheries operating in the GOM and GBK portions of the GOM/GBK stock. The GOM fishery accounts for the vast majority of US lobster landings, averaging 82% of the annual landings since 1982, and is predominately carried out by small vessels making day trips in nearshore waters. The GBK fishery is considerably smaller, averaging 5% of the landings since 1982, and is predominantly carried out by larger vessels making multi-day trips to offshore waters. Total GOM/GBK annual landings increased from a stable period in the 1980s, averaging approximately 35.4 million pounds, through the 1990s and 2000s, exceeding 100 million pounds for the first time in 2009. Landings from 2012 through 2018 stabilized at record levels, averaging 145.7 million pounds. Landings have declined since the last assessment, averaging 123.6 million pounds from 2019-2023.

Historically, the SNE fishery was predominately an inshore fishery. Landings peaked in 1997 at 21.8 million pounds and accounted for 26% of the total US lobster landings. Following the peak, landings from SNE have continuously declined to the lowest on record in 2023 (1.7 million pounds), now accounting for only 1% of the US landings. The fishery has also shifted to a predominantly offshore fishery as inshore abundance declined at a faster rate.

In the GOM/GBK stock, recruitment and spawning stock biomass estimates have declined in recent years from record highs. Recent exploitation is just above the exploitation threshold, indicating overfishing is occurring. Given the overfishing status and rapid declines in abundance in recent years, the Stock Assessment Subcommittee

encouraged the initiation of a management strategy evaluation to establish clear management objectives for all stakeholders, better understand socioeconomic status and concerns, and identify potential management tools that might be supported by the industry and prevent further declines. Although continued adverse environmental indicators suggest environmental conditions are major contributors to the poor abundance status in SNE, the Stock Assessment Subcommittee believes significant management action would provide the best chance of stabilizing or improving the abundance and reproductive capacity of this stock.

The assessment highlights extensive research on the influence of the environment on American lobster life history and population dynamics. Among the critical environmental variables, temperature stands out as the primary influence. The American lobster’s range is experiencing changing environmental conditions at some of the fastest rates in the world, making consideration of environmental factors essential when assessing the lobster stocks. Therefore, the assessment incorporated environmental data time series including water temperatures at several fixed monitoring stations throughout the lobster’s range, average water temperatures over large areas such as those sampled by fishery-independent surveys, oceanographic processes affecting the environment, and other environmental indicators such as lobster prey abundance. These data time series were analyzed for significant shifts in the lobster environment and population that can affect stock productivity and impact recruitment levels and the ability to support different levels of fishing pressure.

Stock abundance is characterized using reference points for abundance and exploitation. Based on these reference points, the GOMGBK stock is not depleted and overfishing is occurring. The average abundance from 2021-2023 was 202 million lobsters, which remains above the abundance limit reference point, but below the fishery/industry target, indicating the stock’s ability to replenish itself is not jeopardized, but economic conditions for the lobster fishery may be degrading. The average exploitation from 2021-2023 was just above the exploitation threshold, indicating overfishing is occurring.

The SNE stock is significantly depleted and the stock’s ability to replenish itself is diminished. The average abundance from 2021-2023 was 6 million lobster, well below the abundance threshold (18 million lobster) and the lowest on record. The average exploitation from 2021-2023 was between the exploitation threshold and target, indicating overfishing is not occurring.

Stock indicators, which are based strictly on observed data and are free from inherent assumptions in the stock assessment models, were also used as an independent, model-free assessment of the lobster stocks to corroborate the assessment model results. Indicators of adult lobster abundance generally showed similar results to the assessment model for the GOM/GBK stock, with abundance declines from peaks since 2018. GOM/GBK young-of-year (YOY) indicators have shown increases from lows in the 2010s, but remain below higher levels observed in the 2000s. Inshore surveys exhibit stronger abundance declines than offshore surveys, and indicators show higher exploitation rates inshore. New to the 2025 assessment, recruit-dependency indicators show inshore harvest is highly dependent on incoming recruitment (lobsters that enter the fishery due to catchable size). Landings and revenue indicators show declining trends but remain at positive levels. Indicators related to environmental conditions, particularly bottom water temperatures, remain positive in GOM/GBK and shell disease prevalence, although increasing in some areas, remains low relative to SNE.

SNE abundance indicators agree with model results and indicate declines to record low abundances for all life stages in recent years. The contraction of the SNE stock has continued and is now evident offshore as well as inshore. Given data and survey challenges leading to increased instability in the SNE model, consistent poor stock status estimates, and the lack of evidence suggesting environmental and stock conditions will improve in SNE, the Stock Assessment Subcommittee recommended future assessments evaluate the condition of the SNE stock using model-free indicators, and prioritize modelling efforts on the GOMGBK stock.

The Peer Review Panel found the 2025 assessment meets and exceeds the standard for best scientific information available and provides a suitable foundation for management. The Panel commended the addition of socioeconomic data that provide insight into changes in the fishery and the considerable efforts to evaluate environmental impacts on the stock. However, the Panel cautioned against placing too much emphasis on environmental effects and discounting the effects of fishing on the lobster populations.

The Board accepted the Benchmark Stock Assessment and Peer Review Report for management use. A more detailed overview of the stock assessment, as well as the Benchmark Stock Assessment and Peer Review Report will be available on the Commission website https://asmfc.org/species/american-lobster/ under News and Resources. For more information, please contact Caitlin Starks, Senior Fishery Management Coordinator, at cstarks@asmfc.org or 703.842.0740.

Menhaden board cuts amount harvesters can catch along the Atlantic next year

October 30, 2025 — The coastwide catch limit will be reduced by 20%, which is less than environmental and recreational fishing groups had hoped after a recently reported decline in the menhaden population.

Officials who regulate the Atlantic menhaden industry continue to wrestle with how to balance the fishery business with growing concerns about the ecosystem.

After hours of back-and-forth and competing motions, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission voted Tuesday to reduce the coastwide catch limit by 20% for next year’s season.

The compromise was less than what environmental groups and recreational anglers wanted and more than the industry did. Virginia’s delegation voted against it.

Board members agreed to revisit the topic next fall, with the potential for further cuts for 2027 and 2028.

The commission helps manage fisheries for 15 states along the East Coast, from Florida to Maine. That includes setting the total allowable catch, or TAC, the maximum amount of menhaden that can be harvested along the coast.

Virginia is allocated about 75% of the total because it’s the last East Coast state that permits menhaden reduction fishing.

Ocean Harvesters, which operates a fishing fleet to supply Omega Protein, collects menhaden by using large walls of netting called purse seines. Omega then processes, or “reduces,” them into fishmeal and fish oil at a plant in Reedville.

Read the full article at the WHRO

ASMFC approves 20 percent cuts to Atlantic menhaden quota for 2026

October 29, 2025 — The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) has chosen to cut the 2026 Atlantic menhaden quota by 20 percent for 2026, drawing criticism from the fishing industry and environmental groups alike.

The ASMFC menhaden management board met on 28 October and decided to reduce the total allowable catch (TAC) for menhaden to 186,840 metric tons (MT), down 20 percent from the 233,550-MT quota the commission set for 2025. The reduction was based on a number of different factors, including ecological reference points (ERPs) that include interactions between fishing mortality rates and striped bass, as well as other predator biomass targets, and a lower estimated fecundity of menhaden.

Read the full article at SeafoodSource

Groups push back after ASMFC approves 20 percent menhaden quota cut

October 29, 2025 — The Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC) voted this week to approve a 20 percent cut to the 2026 Atlantic menhaden quota, a decision that New England Fishermen say will have far-reaching effects on bait supply and working waterfronts across the East Coast.

At its 83^rd Annual Meeting in Dewey Beach, Delaware, the ASMFC’s Atlantic Menhaden Management Board chose to approve quota specifications for only the 2026 season rather than a full three-year package through 2028, opting to revisit the issue next year amid continued uncertainty in the commission’s new ecosystem model.

Read the full article at the National Fisherman

Coastwide Menhaden Catch Limit Cut by 20% as Potential Bay Cuts Loom

October 29, 2025 — In a marathon four-hour fishery management meeting on Tuesday, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC)’s Menhaden Management Board grappled with menhaden catch limits up and down the East Coast. Under pressure from environmentalists to cut catch limits and from menhaden fishermen to protect their livelihoods, board members for the ASMFC voted to reduce the coastwide menhaden catch by 20% in 2026, allowing fishermen to land 186,840 metric tons. The total allowable catch will be revisited in time for the 2027 and 2028 seasons. This motion passed 16-2, with only Virginia and Pennsylvania voting against it.

Inside the Chesapeake Bay, however, the rules are different. The Virginia menhaden reduction fishery, led by purse seine operator Ocean Harvesters, adheres to its own limit, known as the “Bay Cap”, which is currently set at 51,000 metric tons of fish. But environmentalists argue that a much lower Bay Cap is needed to protect the environment. They want to cut the reduction fishery’s limit by 50%. Groups like the Chesapeake Bay Foundation believe menhaden are in trouble, and since menhaden are an important forage fish, that there isn’t enough food to go around for predators like osprey and rockfish. The Virginia menhaden fishing industry disputes the claim that menhaden are in trouble, or that the Bay’s osprey and rockfish population struggles are directly related to a lack of menhaden.

The Science Center for Marine Fisheries (SCEMFIS) just funded a new project that will pull together all of the existing research on menhaden in the Bay, identify gaps in the research, and propose new study methods to fill these gaps. This would lead to solid research for setting a meaningful Bay harvest cap for that is based on data and is scientifically defensible.

Scientists from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) Chesapeake Biological Laboratory in Solomons, Maryland, the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, and NOAA, will lead the project to develop a “research roadmap” for Bay fishery managers.

Since that future research won’t be available for some time, the ASMFC Menhaden Management Board moved to initiate a new addendum that would potentially change how the Bay Cap is used, or lower the limit. This addendum would “develop periods for the Chesapeake Bay Cap that distributes fishing effort more evenly throughout the season” and it would also develop “a range of options to reduce the Bay Cap.” These options could be anything from keeping the cap at its current level to a 50% reduction. The hope is to have a draft of the addendum ready to present at ASMFC’s next meeting this winter.

Read the full article at the Chesapeake Bay Magazine

Daniel McKiernan Elected ASMFC Chair

October 28, 2025 — The following was released by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission:

Dewey Beach, DE – Today, member states of the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (Commission) thanked Joseph Cimino of New Jersey for a successful two-year term as Chair and elected Daniel McKiernan of Massachusetts to succeed him.

“I’m honored to be chosen by my fellow Commissioners to lead our efforts for the next two years. One of my priorities will be to work with my colleagues in the states and federal agencies to seek resources to fund fundamental fisheries data collection and science activities to support our management programs. Other key topics over the next two years will be our ability to adapt to changes in species distribution and availability and how best to respond to the recalibration of recreational fishing effort and harvest data from the Marine Recreational Information Program Fishing Effort Survey,” said Mr. McKiernan.

Mr. McKiernan continued, “I want to thank outgoing Chair, Joe Cimino for his leadership in tackling some challenging management issues for species such as American lobster, American eel, Atlantic striped bass, Atlantic menhaden, horseshoe crab, and red drum. He helped support the advancement of fisheries science through the completion of an impressive number of benchmark stock assessments and assessment updates for river herring, red drum, American lobster, horseshoe crab, tautog, Atlantic sturgeon, and Atlantic menhaden (single species assessment update and ecological reference points benchmark assessment). Further, under his leadership, the Commission also strengthened stakeholder engagement in horseshoe crab management by bringing together diverse stakeholders for a Delaware Bay management objectives workshop to provide recommendations for possible revisions to the management process, and by increasing nontraditional stakeholder representation on the Horseshoe Crab Advisory Panel to more equitably balance user group perspectives. Lastly, Mr. Cimino initiated the process to consider possible changes to voting practices and declared interests on species management boards.”

Additionally, advances in habitat conservation were made by the Atlantic Coastal Fish Habitat Partnership (ACFHP) through its funding of five on-the-ground projects, which will open over seven river miles and restore over 110 acres of habitat. These include dam removal projects in New Jersey and Massachusetts, as well as saltmarsh and oyster restoration projects in Maryland and Florida. ACFHP will also be hosting a Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Workshop in 2026 focused on developing a Seed Transfer Best Management Practices Guidance Document.

From a data collection and management perspective, the Atlantic Coastal Cooperative Statistics Program (ACCSP) also made progress under Mr. Cimino’s leadership. ACCSP supported 20 partner agency data collection projects and expanded the scope and security of the ACCSP Data Warehouse. ACCSP held a data accountability workshop and extended data validation tools within electronic reporting systems; extended implementation of harvester One Stop Reporting; and made progress on a methodology to more fully use for-hire logbooks in Marine Recreational Information Program’s catch statistics.

Mr. McKiernan has directed the Massachusetts Division of Division of Marine Fisheries (MA DMF) since late 2019, where he develops agency policies, represents the Commonwealth in interstate and federal fishery management forums and administers nearly all aspects of the DMF’s in-state management and regulations for fisheries management. He began his professional career as a field biologist for DMF in 1985 and worked closely with the lobster fishery as a sea sampler and an assistant marine biologist. He brought his field experience to DMF’s headquarters and has worked on fisheries management and policy for almost four decades. He has worked diligently to achieve co-existence between endangered right whales and the maritime and fishing industries in Massachusetts. In 2023, Massachusetts was recognized with the NOAA Fisheries “Partner in the Spotlight” award for exceptional efforts to the conservation and recovery of Northern Right Whales.

Mr. McKiernan is practiced in the arenas of federal and interstate fisheries management. As a long-standing representative to the Commission, he has chaired numerous species management boards and was recognized for his management efforts with the Commission’s Award of Excellence in 2018. He is a strong promoter of conservation and accountable fisheries management for commercial fisheries, recreational fisheries, and the seafood industry at large. Mr. McKiernan is a graduate of UMASS-Dartmouth and earned an MS in Fisheries Biology from Auburn University. He received the Massachusetts Pride in Performance Award, as well as the Massachusetts Lobsterman’s Association “Ralph W. Maling” Award of Excellence for dedicated service on behalf of the Commonwealth’s lobster industry.

The Commission also elected Doug Haymans, Director of the Georgia Coastal Resources Division, as its new Vice-Chair.

Florida’s Oldest Seafood Trade Group Joins Menhaden Debate, Defending Science-Based Management

October 27, 2025 — The following was released by the Southeastern Fisheries Association:

The Southeastern Fisheries Association (SFA) — established in 1952 and describing itself as Florida’s oldest seafood industry association with members ranging from fishermen and boat owners to processors, markets, bait providers, restaurants, transportation companies, for-hire charter operators, and consumers from North Carolina through Texas — has urged the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Menhaden Management Board to reject drastic new quota reductions and keep management rooted in the fishery’s risk framework and established reference points.

In a formal letter to the Commission, SFA pointed to the most recent ecological reference point (ERP) assessment, which, the group wrote, “again found that the stock is not overfished and overfishing is not occurring,” adding that “management has consistently been more conservative than single-species reference points would have historically prescribed.”

The association said those findings demonstrate that current controls are already protecting the resource. “The probability of exceeding the ERP F THRESHOLD under current management is low,” the letter states. Because of that low risk, SFA argued against the sweeping 55-percent harvest cuts being discussed by some commissioners and outside advocates.

Instead, SFA proposed a narrowly precautionary adjustment to the coast-wide total allowable catch (TAC). “The coastwide TAC should not be reduced by more than a precautionary 10 percent (i.e., no lower than 210,195 metric tons). This would ensure no chance of overfishing in 2026 and only about a 1 percent probability if maintained through 2027–2028.” The association emphasized that anything more severe would be inconsistent with the science and the Commission’s own risk analysis.

The letter also reminded commissioners of the guiding fairness standard contained in the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Interstate Fisheries Management Program Charter: “Management measures shall be designed to achieve equivalent management results throughout the range of a stock.” SFA cautioned against using allocation changes to offset or disguise politically motivated quota reductions, arguing that management should remain consistent across jurisdictions.

On Chesapeake Bay issues, SFA advised the Board to hold off on any new restrictions until the recently funded Bay-specific research is complete. “The Board should await this new and relevant science before taking further action.” the association wrote, referring to the Science Center for Marine Fisheries (SCEMFIS) study now underway to design a scientifically defensible Bay harvest cap.

SFA concluded that the Commission’s present management already provides a strong, precautionary framework. By the association’s own assessment, “The probability of exceeding the ERP F THRESHOLD under current management is low,” and therefore, it said, “The coastwide TAC should not be reduced by more than a precautionary 10 percent.” The group urged commissioners to let those numbers — not politics — guide their decision.

Read the full letter here

Statement of the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition on the Upcoming Atlantic Menhaden Management Board Meeting

October 27, 2025 — The following was released by the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition:

Tomorrow, the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission’s Menhaden Board is slated to take up several issues which have the potential to gravely impact this historic fishery. First, it will consider the results of the menhaden and ecological reference points (“ERP”) stock assessment. Despite a lower estimate of menhaden fecundity, the stock status remains not overfished and overfishing is not occurring. The assessment team attributed this to the fact that menhaden “management has consistently been more conservative than single-species reference points would have historically prescribed.”

The second and most immediately consequential decision facing the Board is setting the total allowable catch (TAC) of menhaden for 2026 through 2028. Some are calling for up to 55% cuts to the current TAC, which would devastate not only the 150-year-old reduction fishery, but small-scale bait fishermen all along the Atlantic coast and the lobstermen and crabbers that depend on them. This is wholly unjustified. As the scientists who prepared the ERP assessment noted, even if the current TAC were to be maintained, “the probability of exceeding the ERP F_THRESHOLD [that is, overfishing to the detriment of menhaden predators] is low.” They also affirmed that the fishery has little impact on predators like striped bass because, for one, they mostly rely on younger fish that are not targeted by the fishery and, two, because the “main driver for Atlantic menhaden availability to predators is recruitment success,” which is mostly determined by environmental factors.

That said, the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition supports a precautionary reduction of no more than 15% to the current TAC (or 198,518 metric tons). This level would ensure that there is no chance of overfishing over the next three years and provides fisheries managers confidence that the stock will remain healthy. This is a responsible TAC that promotes conservation and protects families that rely on the fishery.

The third agenda item of concern is the potential for initiating an action to consider reallocation of the TAC among the states. The Coalition does not oppose a review of current allocations. However, any attempt to mitigate the impact of drastic quota cuts by forcing only one or two states to shoulder the burden of conservation is inconsistent with the ISFMP Charter, which requires that “management measures shall be designed to achieve equivalent management results throughout the range of a stock.” As the initial and subsequent allocation systems did, any reallocation should consider current use of and dependence on menhaden. If reductions in the TAC are enacted, the Board should reevaluate the allocation of TAC to states with no fishery.

Finally, the Menhaden Board will address Maryland’s proposal to put new, unjustifiable limits on the precautionary Chesapeake Bay menhaden reduction fishery cap. There is simply no scientific justification for any such new measures. The Science Center for Marine Fisheries, administered by the National Science Foundation and supported by the fishing industry, is undertaking new research, led by the most respected scientists in the field, to investigate issues related to management in the Chesapeake Bay. The Board should await this new and relevant science before taking further action.

About the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition
The Menhaden Fisheries Coalition (MFC) is a collective of menhaden fishermen, related businesses, and supporting industries. Comprised of businesses along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition conducts media and public outreach on behalf of the menhaden industry to ensure that members of the public, media, and government are informed of important issues, events, and facts about the fishery.

Menhaden Misinformation: Four Organizations Push Drastic Cuts that Contradict the Assessment Record and Ecosystem-Based Management

October 27, 2025 — The following was released by the Menhaden Fisheries Coalition:

The Chesapeake Bay Foundation (CBF), American Sportfishing Association (ASA), Theodore Roosevelt Conservation Partnership (TRCP), and the American Saltwater Guides Association (ASGA) are circulating claims about Atlantic menhaden that don’t match the assessment record or how this fishery is managed.

Managers already have an ecosystem framework in place that ties menhaden harvest to predator needs. The 2025 single-species and Ecological Reference Points (ERP) assessment components (adopted and implemented by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission (ASMFC)) underwent external peer review; under Total Allowable Catch (TAC) levels set since 2021, the stock is not overfished and overfishing is not occurring in an ecosystem context. Risk management is keyed to avoiding the ERP fishing mortality threshold, and not arbitrary percentage cuts.

Claims being circulated, and the record

1) “Striped bass anglers are making big sacrifices that will be wasted unless menhaden quotas are cut by ~50%.”

The record:

Rebuilding success depends on keeping striped bass fishing mortality (F) low and hoping for improved recruitment; the few recent strong year classes (e.g., 2015, 2018) were heavily impacted by fishing mortality, and Chesapeake Bay recruitment has been below average for years, issues not caused by a menhaden-forage deficit. The next striped bass amendment must hold F low enough to protect weaker cohorts.
Assessment-team reinforcement: the Assessment report indicated that “minor changes in Atlantic menhaden harvest rates are not expected to have major negative effects on most predators”; rather only increasing effort to the “overfishing” level (F_THRESHOLD) “would cause declines in biomass for more sensitive predator species, particularly striped bass.” “As a result, … the probability of exceeding the ERP F_THRESHOLD under the current TAC is low.”
Proposals for cuts up to 55% are not indicated by the risk framework and would devastate the 150-year-old reduction fishery, small-scale bait fishermen along the coast, and the lobstermen and crabbers who depend on them without helping striped bass fishermen.

2) “Striped bass are starving due to a lack of menhaden; severe menhaden cuts are needed to rebuild striped bass.”

The record:

Striped bass rebuilding is driven by reducing striped bass mortality within the 10-year plan to 2029; board discussions since 2019 have focused on striped bass controls, not a forage shortage from the menhaden fishery.
Chesapeake Bay workgroup monitoring from Virginia and Maryland reported healthy striped bass body condition; the fish are not underfed.
Menhaden removals overlap little with what predators eat most: predators primarily consume age-0/1 menhaden, while the reduction fishery targets age-2+ fish.
Assessment team reinforcement: the fishery has limited impact on predators like striped bass because they largely rely on younger fish not targeted by the fishery, and recruitment (environment) is the main driver of young menhaden’s availability to predators.

3) “Severe coastwide cuts are necessary to hit a probability of not exceeding the ERP mortality (F) target.”

The record:

National Standard 1 (NS1) of the Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSA) and peer-reviewed advice focus on preventing overfishing; the operative risk line in the ERP control rule is the F threshold, not the policy F target. Managers should select TACs that avoid any chance of exceeding the threshold.
Assessment team reinforcement: even maintaining the current TAC carries a low probability of exceeding the ERP F threshold; if managers seek extra assurance, a precautionary reduction of no more than 10% (to ~210,195 mt) produces no chance of overfishing in 2026 and only ~1% if held through 2027–2028.
ERP-based management already protects predators by capping risk at the ERP F threshold; under this system, menhaden are not overfished, and overfishing is not occurring in an ecosystem context.
Adjusting TAC: a ≤10% precautionary reduction (~210,195 mt) provides no chance of overfishing in 2026 and about 1% if held through 2027–2028. Larger cuts are not indicated by the risk framework.

4) “Past TACs were far too high because menhaden abundance was overestimated.”

The record:

ERP-era TACs were set conservatively to avoid exceeding ecosystem risk thresholds; under ERP management since 2021, menhaden remain not overfished and overfishing not occurring in an ecosystem context.
The 2025 assessment’s natural mortality (M) re-estimation was empirically derived from the Ahrenholtz tag-recapture database and independently reviewed; the single-species and ERP models were externally peer-reviewed (including through NOAA Fisheries’ Center for Independent Experts) and should be treated as authoritative.
Assessment team reinforcement: despite a rigorous reevaluation that reduced fecundity estimates, stock status remains “not overfished” and “overfishing is not occurring,” attributed to “management [that] has consistently been more conservative than single-species reference points would have historically prescribed and [which] has continued with a conservative approach even under the 2020 ERPs [i.e., the current TACs].”

5) “Earlier assessments misestimated abundance by ~37%; ‘errors’ require a 55% TAC reduction.”

The record:

The “37%” talking point is misstated and does not justify fixed percentage cuts. The current natural mortality (M) (~0.932) is higher than historic values sometimes cited and was endorsed by the Center for Independent Experts after intensive scrutiny of the tag-recapture database. There is no basis to convert M updates into a mandated 55% reduction under ERPs.
Assessment team reinforcement: recruitment (environment) is the main driver of menhaden availability to predators; managing to the ERP fishing mortality threshold, not reverse-engineering large headline cuts, aligns with the science.

6) “Because the coastwide assessment ignores Bay impacts, new Chesapeake Bay-specific limits are needed now.”

The record:

There is no scientific justification for new Bay-specific limits beyond ERPs at this time; research from the Science Center for Marine Fisheries now underway will inform any Bay-focused questions, and managers should await the new science before acting.

Bottom line

ERP-based management already protects predators by capping risk at the ERP fishing mortality threshold; under this system, menhaden are not overfished, and overfishing is not occurring in an ecosystem context.
Rebuilding striped bass depends on reducing striped bass fishing mortality; broad menhaden cuts are not a substitute and are not indicated by the ERP risk framework.