September 5, 2025 — You might have gotten the impression that the Great Barrier Reef—the aquatic wonder off Australia’s coast—is in grave peril. Last month, headlines shouted in unison: Great Barrier Reef suffers worst coral decline on record. Environmental journalists paint a picture of immense devastation driven by climate change.
The truth is much less alarming. Australian scientists have meticulously tracked the reef’s coral cover since 1986. For many years, they published an annual average coral cover figure. The data show that the reef was mostly stable until 2000, then began declining, and by 2012 it had shrunk to less than half its original cover.
But then the reef started growing. It rebounded spectacularly. The scientists stopped publishing their reef-wide average, perhaps because it didn’t further the climate-change narrative. But they continued publishing regional and sectorwide averages, making it possible for anyone to effectively recreate the reef-wide average.