June 3, 2025 –A new seasonal forecast developed by NOAA scientists predicts cooler bottom-water temperatures across the Gulf of Maine this spring and summer, making a notable shift for one of the fastest-warming ocean regions in the world.
The experimental outlook, released as part of NOAA Fisheries’ 2025 New England State of the Ecosystems Report, points to a southward movement of the eastern Gulf Stream and a potential influx of cooler Labrador Slope and Scotian Shelf waters as key drivers behind the recent trend. As a result, scientists expect bottom temperatures in the Gulf to be between 0.9 and 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average.
“The cooling trend from the Labrador Shelf region is significant and could have important effects on local marine ecosystems and fisheries,” said Vincent Saba, a research fishery biologist at NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center.