SEAFOODNEWS.COM By Peggy Parker — July 6, 2015 — All eyes are on Bristol Bay today as fishermen and processors look for a surge in sockeye landings marking the peak of the run today or at the latest, tomorrow. That peak did not come on the traditional day of July 4.
Cumulative landings as of yesterday totaled 8.5 million fish, short by more than half for this time in a six-week season with a forecast of 37.6 million reds.
That means the run is either late, will come in this week in a compressed fashion, or was significantly over estimated. Over the weekend some processors said the travel time from Port Moller, which is still showing a strong return, is longer than anticipated and the bulk of the run may be as much as 4-5 days late.
If so, today and tomorrow’s landings will be critical indicators.
The implications of a drastically reduced run will have impacts throughout the world’s salmon markets, as Bristol Bay is the largest supplier of wild salmon in the world.
Dr. Scott Raborn of the Bristol Bay Science and Research Institute studies the Port Moller test fishery, used as a precursor to Bristol Bay return sizes and timing.
“The migration this year has been very odd,” Raborn reports. “By now, the run will have to be (1) several days late to come in at the pre-season forecast and/or (2) be very compressed.
“The first possibility would mean our estimates of travel times [from Port Moller to each Bristol Bay river system] are 3-4 days longer than we thought, and/or there is considerable strength left at Port Moller. The second could occur if fish are milling outside the districts causing a pooling effect. The rate of compression would be determined by how long it takes to “drain the pool”, which would be anyone’s guess,” Raborn says.
“However, at this point we must consider the possibility of a smaller run,” he adds.
Alaska’s Department of Fish and Game ordered openings in the three largest districts for this morning and afternoon.
The first began at 2 a.m. for Egigik setnetters, an eight-hour opening followed by a second eight-hour opening from 3:15 – 11:15 p.m. Gillnetters began fishing at 6 a.m. today, closing at 10 a.m. and opening again from 3:30 p.m. until 10:30 p.m. today.
Total harvest in Egigik has been 2.8 million fish with escapement at 834,000 sockeye, just above the lower forecasted range. Forecasted total harvest for that river system is 10.64 million sockeyes with 1.4 million escapement.
The second district to fish today is Ugashik, a 10-hour period from 12:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. Cumulative harvest is 930,000 fish in the Ugashik District with escapement at 250,000, just over 25% of expected escapement of 940,000. Forecasted harvest for Ugashik this year was 2.61 million sockeyes.
Finally, The Naknek-Kvichak District will open for a 4-hour period from 4 p.m. until 8 p.m.
Pre-season forecasts for the Naknek/Kvichak district was 18.03 million sockeyes with an escapement of 9.71 million. Cumulative totals as of July 4 are 1.94 million sockeye harvest and 1.28 million reds escapement.
ADF&G will make another announcement at noon Alaska time today regarding the Egegik and Ugashik districts, and a 3 p.m. announcement on the Naknek/Kvichak fishery.
This story originally appeared on SeafoodNews, a subscription site. It has been reprinted with permission.