A preliminary stock assessment for cod in the Gulf of Maine (essentially everywhere north of Cape Cod), produced by a working group at the Northeast Fisheries Service on Nov. 14, suggests the spawning age cod in the gulf in 2007 was overestimated by 270 percent. The fishery that was supposed to be healthy and rebounding is severely over fished, according to the new mathematical models.

“In the last year or two they proclaimed the fishery totally recovered, now they’re saying it’s on the edge of extinction,” said Chatham fisherman Greg Walinski. “The science that determines the amount that’s out there is woefully inept. It’s years behind.”

The proposed statistical model estimates the current spawning stock biomass at 11,868 metric tons and slashed the 2007 estimate from 33,877 metric tons to 12,561 metric tons. Factoring possible error there’s a 90 percent chance the current spawning stock is between 9,479 metric tons and 16,301 metric tons. The fishery is considered overfished if the spawning stock is less than 27,124 metric tons, and the new estimate isn’t even half of that.

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